Mechanistic modelling for African swine fever transmission in the Republic of Korea

Under the current African swine fever (ASF) epidemic situation, a science-based ASF-control strategy is required. An ASF transmission mechanistic model can be used to understand the disease transmission dynamics among susceptible epidemiological units and evaluate the effectiveness of an ASF-control strategy by simulating disease spread results with different control options. The force of infection, which is the probability that a susceptible epidemiological unit becomes infected, could be estimated by applying an ASF transmission mechanistic model. The government needs to plan an ASF-control strategy based on an ASF transmission mechanistic model.

Basic reproduction number of African swine fever in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity in South Korea

Background@#African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R0) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R0 for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics. @*Objectives@#This study was undertaken to estimate the R0 of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity. @*Methods@#We detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R0 was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed. @*Results@#Totally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R0 of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar. @*Conclusions@#The disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars.

Basic reproduction number of African swine fever in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity in South Korea

Background@#African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R0) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R0 for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics. @*Objectives@#This study was undertaken to estimate the R0 of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity. @*Methods@#We detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R0 was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed. @*Results@#Totally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R0 of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar. @*Conclusions@#The disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars.

Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number / 예방의학회지

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R0) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R0 was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. However, this metric is often misused or misinterpreted. Moreover, the complexity of the process of estimating R0 has caused difficulties for a substantial number of researchers. In this article, in order to increase the accessibility of this concept, we address several misconceptions related to the threshold characteristics of R0 and the effective reproduction number (Rt). Moreover, the appropriate interpretation of the metrics is discussed. R0 should be considered as a population-averaged value that pools the contact structure according to a stochastic transmission process. Furthermore, it is necessary to understand the unavoidable time lag for Rt due to the incubation period of the disease.

Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number / 예방의학회지

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R0) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R0 was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. However, this metric is often misused or misinterpreted. Moreover, the complexity of the process of estimating R0 has caused difficulties for a substantial number of researchers. In this article, in order to increase the accessibility of this concept, we address several misconceptions related to the threshold characteristics of R0 and the effective reproduction number (Rt). Moreover, the appropriate interpretation of the metrics is discussed. R0 should be considered as a population-averaged value that pools the contact structure according to a stochastic transmission process. Furthermore, it is necessary to understand the unavoidable time lag for Rt due to the incubation period of the disease.

Temporospatial clustering analysis of foot-and-mouth disease transmission in South Korea, 2010~2011 / 대한수의학회지

To investigate the transmission pattern of geographical area and temporal trends of the 2010~2011 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Korea, and to explore temporal intervals at which spatial clustering of FMD cases space-time analysis based on georeferenced database of 3,575 burial sites, from 30 November 2010 to 23 February 2011, was performed. The cases represent approximately 98.1% of all infected farms (n = 3,644) during the same period. Descriptive maps of spatial patterns of the outbreaks were generated by ArcGIS. Spatial Scan Statistics, using SaTScan software, was applied to investigate geographical clusters of FMD cases across the country. Overall, spatial heterogeneity was identified, and the transmission pattern was different by province. Cattle have more clusters in number but smaller in size, as compared to the swine population. In addition, spatiotemporal analysis and the comparison of clustering patterns between the first 7 days and days 8 to 14 of the outbreak revealed that the strongest spatial clustering was identified at the 7-day interval, although clustering over longer intervals (8~14 days) was also observed. We further discussed the importance of time period elapsed between FMD-suspected notice and the date of confirmation, and emphasized the necessity of region-specific and species-specific control measures.

Estimation of Paratuberculosis Prevalence in Dairy Cattle in a Province of Korea using an Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay: Application of Bayesian Approach

To draw inferences about the sensitivity and specificity of the newly developed ELISA test for bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis and posterior distribution on the prevalence of PTB in a province of Korea, we applied Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampler to the data extracted from the prevalence study in 1999. The data were from a single test results without a designated gold test. The prevalence estimates for PTB in study population ranged 3.2~5.3% for conservative and 6.7~7.1% for liberal, depending on the priors used. The simulated specificities of the ELISA close to one another, ranging 84.7~90.6%, whereas the sensitivity was somewhat spread out depending largely on the priors with a range of 46.4~88.2%. Our findings indicate that the ELISA method appeared useful as a screening tool at a minimum level in comparison to other diagnostic tests available for this disease in terms of sensitivity. However, this advantage comes at a cost of having low specificity of the test.

Capsular polysaccharide typing of domestic mastitis-causing Staphylococcus aureus strains and its potential exploration of bovine mastitis vaccine developmen. I. capsular polysaccharide typing, isolation and purification of the strains

One hundred seven isolates of Staphylococcus aureus from bovine mastitis were investigated for colony morphology in serum-soft agar (SSA), autoagglutination in salt, and capsular serotype. Capsular polysaccharide (CP) was purified and quantified from the extracts of clinical isolates. Overall, 89 isolates (83.2%) were diffuse in the SSA, without any difference in the proportion of diffuse colony between type 5 and type 8 strains. Some strains exhibited compact colonies in the SSA and expressed CP as determined by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, indicating that compact morphology does not exclude encapsulation. The majority of the strains (11/12) showed autoagglutination in the salt aggregation test. The serotype 336 accounted for 46.7% of the isolates followed by serotype 5 (12.1%) and serotype 8 (12.1%). Particularly, twenty-six (24.3%) isolates reacted with two serotypes; 7 for type 8/336 and 19 for type 5/336. Five isolates (4.7%) were nontypeable with monoclonal antibodies specific for CP serotype 5, 8, or 336. The CP concentration in culture supernatants varied with the serotypes, and the total amount of CP produced by cells grown in a liquid medium was much less than that produced by cells grown on a solid medium. The Western blotting indicated that the CP bands of S. aureus serotype 5 and 8 were ranged in the molecular mass of 58-84 kilodalton (kDa), with additional bands in the region of approximately >or= 48 or

The clinical implication of sodium-potassium ratios in dogs

Although there have been substantial evidences on the usefulness of electrolytes for the diagnosis of disease, the evidences for a direct link between serum sodium and serum potassium in relation to a specific disease are very limited. This study was performed to investigate an association between diseases and Na:K ratios in dogs. From January 1997 to December 1999, a total of 39 cases with an Na:K ratio less than 27 were retrieved from the medical records of Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital, Seoul National University. Ten dogs (25.6%) had a renal or urinary disease, and six (15.4%) had a parasitism. Other miscellaneous diseases included deep pyoderma, grade III patellar luxation, bacterial pneumonia, diabetes, pancreatitis, and pyometra. The Na:K ratio was significantly lower in dogs with renal failures than those with parasitic diseases (p=0.0735). With the criterion of the Na:K ratio < 27, twenty seven dogs (69.2%) had hyperkalemia, whereas thirteen dogs (33.3%) had hyponatremia. Of 13 dogs with Na:K ratios between 20 and 24, six were diagnosed as a renal or urinary tract disease, two as diabetes, and two as a parasitism. The Na:K ratios of 9 dogs were < 20, being with the most prevalent with the disease of renal failures (55.6%). The serum Na:K ratios were more closely related to serum potassium concentrations (gamma= -0.8710) than serum sodium concentrations (gamma=0.4703). Two dogs with diabetes had an electrolyte pattern of hyperkalemia with normonatremia. Further studies are needed to determine the usefulness of Na:K ratio for diagnosis of hypoadrenocorticism, and to establish a relationship between patellar luxation and electrolyte unbalance.