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RESUMEN Introducción: la epilepsia constituye una de las enfermedades neurológicas crónicas más comunes en niños. Objetivo: determinar la prevalencia general y según edad, sexo y etiología de la epilepsia en el área de salud del policlínico Jimmy Hirzel del municipio Bayamo, provincia de Granma en los pacientes menores de 15 años. Métodos: se realizó una investigación descriptiva y transversal, utilizándose entre las técnicas estadísticas el método de captura-recaptura. Resultados: la tasa de prevalencia general encontrada fue de 4,54 (IC 95%, 4,33-4,74). Conclusiones: se concluyó que la prevalencia de la epilepsia en el área de salud estudiada presenta valores similares a los encontrados en países desarrollados.
ABSTRACT Introduction: epilepsy is one of the most common chronic neurological diseases in children. Objective: to determine the general prevalence and according to age, sex and etiology of epilepsy in the health area of the Jimmy Hirzel polyclinic of the Bayamo municipality, Granma province in patients under 15 years of age. Methods: a descriptive and cross-sectional investigation was carried out, using the capture-recapture method among the statistical techniques. Results: the general prevalence rate found was 4.54 (95% CI, 4.33-4.74). Conclusions: it was concluded that the prevalence of epilepsy in the health area studied presents values similar to those found in developed countries.
RESUMO Introdução: a epilepsia é uma das doenças neurológicas crônicas mais comuns em crianças. Objetivo: determinar a prevalência geral e de acordo com a idade, sexo e etiologia da epilepsia na área de saúde da policlínica Jimmy Hirzel do município de Bayamo, província de Granma em pacientes menores de 15 anos. Métodos: foi realizada uma investigação descritiva e transversal, utilizando o método de captura-recaptura dentre as técnicas estatísticas. Resultados: a taxa de prevalência geral encontrada foi de 4,54 (IC 95%, 4,33-4,74). Conclusões: concluiu-se que a prevalência de epilepsia na área da saúde estudada apresenta valores semelhantes aos encontrados em países desenvolvidos.
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Introduction: Group or colony size is an important variable that is related to biological, ecological, and conservation aspects of bats. However, estimating the size of each colony or group in roosts used by more than one species is particularly difficult, especially when recapture rates are very low (< 10 %). Objective: Estimate the colony size of 14 species of bats: one emballonurid, one natalid, four mormoopids, seven phyllostomids, and one vespertilionid, which roosted throughout one year (July 2016 to June 2017) in a mine and two caves -Cerro Huatulco and El Apanguito- in the Sierra Sur and Costa of the state of Oaxaca. Methods: We constructed capture-recapture histories per species and roost, and for species for which we obtained recaptures that represented at least 10 % of the captures, we used the probabilistic Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. In the case of species with no recaptures or with a recapture proportion lower than 10 %, we estimated the number of individuals per roost by applying the same proportion between the number of captured specimens and the estimated number for species with recaptures greater than 10 % and that they belonged to the same family or trophic guild. Results: The total estimated number of bats in the three studied roosts was 20 105. The highest colony size estimates were for the mormoopids Pteronotus fulvus and P. mesoamericanus from El Apanguito and P. fulvus from Cerro Huatulco, with 6 609, 4 092 and 2 212 individuals, respectively. Conclusions: The methodology used in this study allowed estimating the colony size for all registered species, even though only for 21.42 % the recapture rates were greater than 10 %. Therefore, we consider that this methodology represents a viable alternative to estimate colony size in other roosts. This information, together with the high species richness and importance for reproductive processes, allow us to propose these sites as Bat Protection and Conservation Areas in Mexico.
Introducción: El tamaño del grupo o colonia es una variable importante que está relacionada con los aspectos biológicos, ecológicos y de conservación de los murciélagos. Sin embargo, estimar el tamaño de cada colonia o grupo en refugios utilizados por más de una especie es particularmente difícil, especialmente cuando las tasas de recaptura son muy bajas (< 10 %). Objetivo: Estimar el tamaño de la colonia de 14 especies de murciélagos: un emballonúrido, un natálido, cuatro mormópidos, siete filostómidos y un vespertiliónido, que se refugiaron durante un año (Julio 2016 a Junio 2017) en una mina y dos cuevas -Cerro Huatulco y El Apanguito- en la Sierra Sur y Costa del estado de Oaxaca. Métodos: Construimos historias de captura-recaptura por especie y refugio, y para las especies que se obtuvieron recapturas que representaban al menos el 10 % de las capturas, utilizamos un modelo probabilístico de Cormack-Jolly-Seber para estimar el tamaño de sus colonias. En el caso de especies sin recapturas o con una proporción de recaptura inferior al 10 %, estimamos el número de individuos por refugio aplicando la misma proporción entre el número de individuos capturados y el número total estimado para las especies con recapturas mayores del 10 % y que pertenecieran a la misma familia o gremio trófico registradas con la mayor similitud ecológica y con suficientes recapturas para aplicar el modelo Cormack-Jolly-Seber. Resultados: El número total estimado de murciélagos en los tres refugios de estudio fue de 20 105. Las estimaciones de tamaño de colonia más altos fueron para los mormópidos Pteronotus fulvus y P. mesoamericanus de El Apanguito y P. fulvus en Cerro Huatulco, con 6 609, 4 092 and 2 212 individuos, respectivamente. Conclusiones: La metodología utilizada en este estudio permitió estimar el tamaño de la colonia para todas las especies registradas, a pesar de que solo para el 21.42 % las tasas de recaptura fueron superiores al 10 %. Por lo tanto, consideramos que esta metodología representa una alternativa viable para estimar el tamaño de colonia en otros refugios. Esta información, junto con los procesos de alta riqueza de especies y reproducción que tienen lugar en esta área, permiten proponer estos sitios como áreas de protección y conservación de murciélagos en México.
Subject(s)
Animals , Chiroptera/anatomy & histology , Caves , Phylogeny , MexicoABSTRACT
Objective To explore the use of new media technology to estimate the size of the online MSM population in Pudong New Area, to understand the frequency of new media software use, HIV testing and high-risk behavior, and to provide a basis for AIDS prevention and control. Methods The online MSM registration information in Pudong New Area was collected through a gay dating APP. At five time points on March 28 and April 11, 2019, MSM who logged into the gay dating APP were counted. The MSM were confirmed by comparing the login name and registration information. The capture-recapture (C-R) method was used to calculate the MSM population size. Meanwhile, a questionnaire survey was conducted on the online MSM. Results The MSM population size in Pudong New Area was estimated at 13 174 [95% CI: 9,672~16,676] through the C-R method. The proportion of multiple sexual partners accounted for 72.5%. According to the ordered multi-classification logistics analysis, age, education level, experience of attending a talk on AIDS, and experience of receiving AIDS publicity and education in the VCT clinic were the influencing factors of AIDS awareness. Conclusion New media technology provided new technical means for estimating the size of MSM population. The MSM population’s awareness of AIDS risk and prevention still needs to be strengthened. It is worthy of further studies on the role of new media technology in AIDS prevention and health education in the future.
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Abstract The practice of capture-recapture to estimate the diversity is well known to many animal groups, however this practice in the larval phase of anuran amphibians is incipient. We aimed at evaluating the Lincoln estimator, Venn diagram and Bayes theorem in the inference of population size of a larval phase anurocenose from lotic environment. The adherence of results was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The marking of tadpoles for later recapture and methods measurement was made with eosin methylene blue. When comparing the results of Lincoln-Petersen estimator corresponding to the Venn diagram and Bayes theorem, we detected percentage differences per sampling, i.e., the proportion of sampled anuran genera is kept among the three methods, although the values are numerically different. By submitting these results to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test we have found no significant differences. Therefore, no matter the estimator, the measured value is adherent and estimates the total population. Together with the marking methodology, which did not change the behavior of tadpoles, the present study helps to fill the need of more studies on larval phase of amphibians in Brazil, especially in semi-arid northeast.
Resumo A prática de captura-recaptura para a estimação da diversidade é bem conhecida para diversos grupos animais, porém na fase larvar de anfíbios anuros essa prática é incipiente. Objetivamos avaliar os métodos do estimador de Lincoln, diagrama de Venn e o teorema de Bayes na inferência do tamanho populacional de uma anurocenose em fase larvar de ambiente lótico. A aderência dos resultados foi avaliada através do teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. A marcação dos girinos para posterior recaptura e aferição dos métodos foi feita com eosina de azul de metileno. Ao compararmos os resultados do estimador de Lincoln que corresponde com o do diagrama de Venn e com o teorema de Bayes detectamos diferenças percentuais por amostragem, isto é, a manutenção da proporção dos gêneros de anuros amostrados é mantida entre os três métodos, embora com valores numericamente diferentes. Ao submetermos esses resultados ao teste Kolmogorov-Smirnov não encontramos diferenças significativas. Logo, qualquer que seja o estimador o valor aferido é aderente e estima a população total. Aliado à metodologia de marcação que não alterou o comportamento dos girinos, o presente estudo ajuda a preencher a necessidade de mais estudos na fase larvar dos anfíbios no Brasil, em especial no semiárido nordestino.
Subject(s)
Animals , Ponds , Models, Statistical , Larva/physiology , Environmental Monitoring , Bayes Theorem , Population DensityABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: The capture-recapture method was applied to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals not registered with any data sources. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Lorestan Province, in the west of Iran, in 2016. Three incomplete sources of HIV-positive individuals, with partially overlapping data, were used, including: (a) transfusion center, (b) volunteer counseling and testing centers (VCTCs), and (c) prison. The 3-source capture-recapture method, using a log-linear model, was applied for data analysis. The Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion were used for model selection. RESULTS: Of the 2,456 HIV-positive patients registered in these 3 data sources, 1,175 (47.8%) were identified in transfusion center, 867 (35.3%) in VCTCs, and 414 (16.8%) in prison. After the exclusion of duplicate entries, 2,281 HIV-positive patients remained. Based on the capture-recapture method, 14,868 (95% confidence interval, 9,923 to 23,427) HIV-positive individuals were not identified in any of the registries. Therefore, the real number of HIV-positive individuals was estimated to be 17,149, and the overall completeness of the 3 registries was estimated to be around 13.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Based on capture-recapture estimates, a huge number of HIV-positive individuals are not registered with any of the provincial data sources. This is an urgent message for policymakers who plan and provide health care services for HIV-positive patients. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful statistical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the population size may be overestimated as it seems possible in our results.
Subject(s)
Humans , Counseling , Cross-Sectional Studies , Delivery of Health Care , HIV , HIV Seropositivity , Information Storage and Retrieval , Iran , Linear Models , Methods , Population Density , Prisons , Registries , Statistics as Topic , VolunteersABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: The capture-recapture method was applied to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals not registered with any data sources.METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Lorestan Province, in the west of Iran, in 2016. Three incomplete sources of HIV-positive individuals, with partially overlapping data, were used, including: (a) transfusion center, (b) volunteer counseling and testing centers (VCTCs), and (c) prison. The 3-source capture-recapture method, using a log-linear model, was applied for data analysis. The Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion were used for model selection.RESULTS: Of the 2,456 HIV-positive patients registered in these 3 data sources, 1,175 (47.8%) were identified in transfusion center, 867 (35.3%) in VCTCs, and 414 (16.8%) in prison. After the exclusion of duplicate entries, 2,281 HIV-positive patients remained. Based on the capture-recapture method, 14,868 (95% confidence interval, 9,923 to 23,427) HIV-positive individuals were not identified in any of the registries. Therefore, the real number of HIV-positive individuals was estimated to be 17,149, and the overall completeness of the 3 registries was estimated to be around 13.3%.CONCLUSIONS: Based on capture-recapture estimates, a huge number of HIV-positive individuals are not registered with any of the provincial data sources. This is an urgent message for policymakers who plan and provide health care services for HIV-positive patients. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful statistical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the population size may be overestimated as it seems possible in our results.
Subject(s)
Humans , Counseling , Cross-Sectional Studies , Delivery of Health Care , HIV , HIV Seropositivity , Information Storage and Retrieval , Iran , Linear Models , Methods , Population Density , Prisons , Registries , Statistics as Topic , VolunteersABSTRACT
Abstract The practice of capture-recapture to estimate the diversity is well known to many animal groups, however this practice in the larval phase of anuran amphibians is incipient. We aimed at evaluating the Lincoln estimator, Venn diagram and Bayes theorem in the inference of population size of a larval phase anurocenose from lotic environment. The adherence of results was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The marking of tadpoles for later recapture and methods measurement was made with eosin methylene blue. When comparing the results of Lincoln-Petersen estimator corresponding to the Venn diagram and Bayes theorem, we detected percentage differences per sampling, i.e., the proportion of sampled anuran genera is kept among the three methods, although the values are numerically different. By submitting these results to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test we have found no significant differences. Therefore, no matter the estimator, the measured value is adherent and estimates the total population. Together with the marking methodology, which did not change the behavior of tadpoles, the present study helps to fill the need of more studies on larval phase of amphibians in Brazil, especially in semi-arid northeast.
Resumo A prática de captura-recaptura para a estimação da diversidade é bem conhecida para diversos grupos animais, porém na fase larvar de anfíbios anuros essa prática é incipiente. Objetivamos avaliar os métodos do estimador de Lincoln, diagrama de Venn e o teorema de Bayes na inferência do tamanho populacional de uma anurocenose em fase larvar de ambiente lótico. A aderência dos resultados foi avaliada através do teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. A marcação dos girinos para posterior recaptura e aferição dos métodos foi feita com eosina de azul de metileno. Ao compararmos os resultados do estimador de Lincoln que corresponde com o do diagrama de Venn e com o teorema de Bayes detectamos diferenças percentuais por amostragem, isto é, a manutenção da proporção dos gêneros de anuros amostrados é mantida entre os três métodos, embora com valores numericamente diferentes. Ao submetermos esses resultados ao teste Kolmogorov-Smirnov não encontramos diferenças significativas. Logo, qualquer que seja o estimador o valor aferido é aderente e estima a população total. Aliado à metodologia de marcação que não alterou o comportamento dos girinos, o presente estudo ajuda a preencher a necessidade de mais estudos na fase larvar dos anfíbios no Brasil, em especial no semiárido nordestino.
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Resumen:Los ratones espinosos de abazones Liomys y Heteromys son roedores granívoros que se distribuyen en bosques tropicales secos y en matorral espinoso a lo largo de tierras bajas del Pacífico y en regiones xerófilas en la meseta de México. Analizamos la dinámica poblacional del ratón espinoso de abazones Heteromys pictus en la costa de Oaxaca, México, en dos sitios de bosque tropical caducifolio con diferente grado de perturbación humana: ZPP = zona poco perturbada, y ZMP = zona con mayor perturbación. Se establecieron dos cuadros en cada área con 66 estaciones de trampeo; se utilizó el método de captura-recaptura durante 12 periodos de muestreo. La densidad poblacional se estimó utilizando el método del Número Mínimo de Individuos Conocidos Vivos (NMIV). Se capturaron 706 individuos, 290 para la ZPP y 416 para la ZMP. La densidad poblacional fluctuó entre 28 y 142 ind./ha para ambas zonas; sin embargo esta fue mayor para la ZMP (54 a 142 ind./ha). La densidad poblacional de ambas zonas aumentó durante la temporada de lluvia y coincidió con el mayor reclutamiento. Se registró actividad reproductiva a lo largo de todo el estudio en ambas zonas, pero fue mayor para la ZMP. La proporción de sexos fue de 1:1 en la ZPP, mientras que en la ZMP fue de 1: 0.75. En la ZMP encontramos una mayor densidad poblacional y actividad reproductiva en las hembras. Estos resultados sugieren que H. pictus prefiere la ZMP, lo que indica que en este lugar la especie no es afectada significativamente por la perturbación humana.
Abstract:Spiny pocket mice Liomys and Heteromys are forest-dwelling granivorous rodents distributed in seasonally dry forest or thorn scrub along the Pacific low- lands or xeric regions in the Mexican Plateau. We analyzed the population dynamics of the spiny pocket mouse Heteromys pictus, in the coast of Oaxaca, Mexico, in two sites of tropical deciduous forest with different degrees of disturbance: ZPP = less disturbed site, and ZMP = more disturbed site. Two plots were established in each area with 66 trap stations; we used the capture-recapture method and trapping for 12 periods for one year. Population density was estimated using the method of Minimum Number of Individuals Known Alive (MNKA). We captured 706 individuals, 290 for the ZPP and 416 for the ZMP. The population density ranged from 28 to 142 ind./ ha for both zones, but it was higher for the ZMP (54 against 142 ind./ha). The population density for both areas increased during the rainy season and coincided with the increased recruitment of adults. Reproductive activity occurred throughout the study period in both areas, but it was higher for the ZMP. The sex ratio in the ZPP was 1:1 while in the ZMP was 1:0.75. In the ZMP we found a higher population density and reproductive activity in females, compared to the ZPP. These results suggest that H. pictus prefers the ZMP, indicating that the species is not significantly affected by human disturbance in the studied location. Rev. Biol. Trop. 64 (4): 1415-1429. Epub 2016 December 01.
Subject(s)
Humans , Animals , Rodentia/physiology , Forests , Ecosystem , Rodentia/classification , Seasons , Population Dynamics , Population Density , MexicoABSTRACT
To verify rubella and CRS elimination, countries need to ensure that their surveillance systems are sufficiently sensitive to capture almost all cases. This study aims to estimate the incidence of CRS in Australia and the sensitivity of CRS case ascertainment in the NNDSS.
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The ocelot Leopardus pardalis is of particular significance in terrestrial communities due to its ecological role within the group of small-sized felids and as a mesopredator. However, despite the reduction of ocelot habitat in Southeast Mexico, there are still very few ecological studies. This research aimed to contribute with some ecological aspects of the species in this region. For this, 29 camera trap stations were established in a rain forest in Los Chimalapas (an area of 22km2) during a two years period (March 2011-June, 2013), in Oaxaca state, Southeast Mexico. Data allowed the estimation of the population density, activity pattern, sex ratio, residence time, and spatial distribution. Population density was calculated using Capture-Recapture Models for demographically open populations; besides, circular techniques were used to determine if nocturnal and diurnal activity varied significantly over the seasons, and Multiple Discriminant Analysis was used to determine which of the selected environmental variables best explained ocelot abundance in the region. A total of 103 ocelot records were obtained, with a total sampling effort of 8 529 trap-days. Density of 22-38individuals/100km2 was estimated. Ocelot population had a high proportion of transient individuals in the zone (55%), and the sex ratio was statistically equal to 1:1. Ocelot activity was more frequent at night (1:00-6:00h), but it also exhibited diurnal activity throughout the study period. Ocelot spatial distribution was positively affected by the proximity to the village as well as by the amount of prey. The ocelot population here appears to be stable, with a density similar to other regions in Central and South America, which could be attributed to the diversity of prey species and a low degree of disturbance in Los Chimalapas. Rev. Biol. Trop. 62 (4): 1421-1432. Epub 2014 December 01.
El ocelote Leopardus pardalis es importante en comunidades terrestres debido a su papel ecológico dentro del grupo de felinos de tallas pequeñas y como mesodepredador. A pesar de la disminución del hábitat del ocelote en el sureste de México, son pocos los estudios ecológicos. El siguiente trabajo presenta una contribución de algunos aspectos ecológicos de la especie en esta región. Se estimó la densidad poblacional, patrón de actividad, proporción de sexos, tiempo de residencia y distribución espacial del ocelote. El estudio se llevó a cabo mediante fototrampeo dentro de Los Chimalapas, en el estado de Oaxaca, sureste de México. Se establecieron 29 estaciones dentro de la selva alta y se cubrió un área de 22km2, durante dos años (marzo 2011-junio 2013). La densidad fue estimada usando Modelos de Captura-Recaptura para poblaciones demográficamente abiertas, las técnicas circulares fueron usadas para determinar si la actividad nocturna y diurna varió significativamente entre épocas y, un análisis discriminante múltiple fue usado para conocer cuáles variables explican mejor la abundancia del ocelote en la región. Se obtuvieron 103 registros de ocelote con un esfuerzo de 8 529 días-trampa. Se estimó una densidad de 22-38 individuos/100km2. La población del ocelote tuvo un porcentaje alto de transeúntes (55%) y la proporción de sexos fue estadísticamente similar de 1:1. El ocelote estuvo más activo en la noche (1:00-6:00am), pero exhibió actividad diurna durante todo el periodo de estudio. La distribución espacial estuvo afectada positivamente por la proximidad a poblados y por la cantidad de presas. La población del ocelote parece estable, con una densidad similar a otras regiones de Centro y Sudamérica, quizá debido a la diversidad de especies presa y al grado bajo de alteración en Los Chimalapas.
Subject(s)
Animals , Female , Male , Felidae , Rainforest , Felidae/classification , Felidae/physiology , Mexico , Population Density , Population DynamicsABSTRACT
Objective To discuss the impact of different markers on the estimation of MSM using the capture-recapture method.Methods From March to July 2013,MSM were captured from the their related network to estimate the site of this population,under the capture-recapture method.Two different markers were set in the process of first ‘capture'.Results The estimated numbers of MSM in Beijing were 239 258 (95％CI:48 932-429 584) and 115 731 (95％CI:78 153-153 309) when using the two markers under capture-recapture method.Conclusion The estimated size of MSM population varied greatly under different markers which called for the right selection on markers when using the capture-recapture method to estimate the size of specific population.
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Home-range is the area used by an animal in its daily activities. Home-range studies provide data on species mating systems and territorial behavior. Our main goal was to estimate the Didelphis albiventris (Lund 1840) home-range in Mutum Island, Paraná River, Brazil. The study was carried out in 2008 from March to October on a 19.20 ha grid. The island is part of the Parana River Islands and Floodlands Federal Environmental Protection Area, with vegetation composed by Alluvial Semideciduous Seasonal Forest in a region of Subtropical Wet climate. The sampling effort was 3,360 traps-night resulting in 152 Didelphis albiventris (Lund 1840) captures. Forty-one Didelphis albiventris (Lund 1840) individuals were captured in 42 capture stations, composed by a trap placed on the floor and another in understory (2 m high). The animals were mostly terrestrial, independently of age or sex. Four females and five males, which were recaptured at least five times, were used to calculate home-range using the minimum convex polygon method. The mean home-range estimate was 2.33 ± 2.32 ha, similar to previous estimates provided by other methods, suggesting that our capture grid area, that was larger than usually applied for mark-capture studies for this species, have not underestimated the home-ranges. Evidences of the relation between individual home-range area and body mass were observed. Home-range overlaps occurred between males, females and males with females; the average overlap was 33.74%, which may be related to a promiscuous mating system, and suggests female territoriality.
Área de vida é a área usada por um animal em suas atividades diárias. Estudos de área de vida oferecem dados sobre os sistemas reprodutivos e comportamento territorial das espécies. Nosso objetivo foi estimar a área de vida de Didelphis albiventris (Lund 1840) na ilha Mutum, no rio Paraná, Brasil. O estudo foi realizado em 2008 de março a outubro em uma grade de 19,20 ha. Esta ilha é parte da área de proteção de ilhas e várzeas do rio Paraná e sua vegetação é composta por floresta estacional semidecidual aluvial sazonal com clima subtropical úmido. O esforço amostral foi de 3.360 armadilhas-noite resultando em 152 capturas de Didelphis albiventris (Lund 1840). Foram capturados 41 indivíduos nas 42 estações compostas por uma armadilha no solo e a dois metros de altura. A maioria dos animais foi capturada no solo, independente de idade ou sexo. Quatro fêmeas e cinco machos foram recapturados pelo menos cinco vezes e foram usados para calcular a área de vida mediante método de polígono mínimo convexo. A área de vida média estimada foi de 2,33 ha ± 2,32, similar às estimativas previamente descritas por outros métodos, sugerindo que o tamanho da grade de captura, maior que a usualmente empregada em estudos de marcação-recaptura com esta espécie, não subestimou as áreas de vida. Evidências da relação entre a área de vida e massa corporal dos indivíduos foram observadas. Sobreposição das áreas de vida (média = 33,74%) ocorreu entre machos, entre fêmeas e de machos com fêmeas, o que pode ser relacionado a um sistema de acasalamento promíscuo e territorialidade de fêmeas.
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OBJECTIVES: The number of illicit drug users is prone to underestimation. This study aimed to use the capture-recapture method as a statistical procedure for measuring the prevalence of intravenous drug users (IDUs) by estimating the number of unknown IDUs not registered by any of the registry centers. METHODS: This study was conducted in Hamadan City, the west of Iran, in 2012. Three incomplete data sources of IDUs, with partial overlapping data, were assessed including: (a) Volunteer Counseling and Testing Centers (VCTCs); (b) Drop in Centers (DICs); and (c) Outreach Teams (ORTs). A log-linear model was applied for the analysis of three-sample capture-recapture results. Two information criteria were used for model selection including Akaike's Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion. RESULTS: Out of 1,478 IDUs registered by three centers, 48% were identified by VCTCs, 32% by DICs, and 20% by ORTs. After exclusion of duplicates, 1,369 IDUs remained. According to our findings, there were 9,964 (95% CI, 6,088 to 17,636) IDUs not identified by any of the centers. Hence, the real number of IDUs is expected to be 11,333. Based on these findings, the overall completeness of the three data sources was around 12% (95% CI, 7% to 18%). CONCLUSION: There was a considerable number of IDUs not identified by any of the centers. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful and practical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the results must be interpreted with caution.
Subject(s)
Humans , Counseling , Dacarbazine , Drug Users , Iran , Linear Models , Prevalence , Information Storage and RetrievalABSTRACT
The fruit-eating bat, Dermanura tolteca, has a broad geographic distribution in Mexico and it is a very important seed dispersal of Neotropical plants. Nonetheless, information on the biology of this bat species is scarce, especially with regard to demography. We studied some ecological aspects and population dynamics of D. tolteca from Southeastern Mexican State of Oaxaca. The study was conducted in a perennial tropical forest, over a period of 80 nights, a sampling effort of 73 200 mist-net-hour, from May 2006 to August 2007. A total of 176 specimens were captured, 98 females and 78 males. Population size was estimated in 237 individuals in the study area, with a greater number during rainy season. The population density of this bat, in its range of distribution in Mexico is low compared to other nose-leaf bats. Captures were correlated with monthly precipitation, and this result may be linked to food resources abundance in tropical and subtropical areas. The reproductive pattern was bimodal polyestrous, with birth periods between August-September and April-June. Greater body mass was observed in females than males. The male-female ratio and age-related demographics were similar to other noseleaf bats. The biological characteristics of D. tolteca are typical of nose-leaf bats of the family Phyllostomidae. Rev. Biol. Trop. 58 (4): 1323-1334. Epub 2010 December 01.
El murciélago Dermanura tolteca presenta una amplia distribución geográfica en México y es un importante dispersor de semillas de una variedad de plantas neotropicales. Sin embargo la información biológica sobre este murciélago es escasa, especialmente en aspectos demográficos. El objetivo de este trabajo fue documentar la dinámica poblacional y varios aspectos ecológicos de la especie. El trabajo fue conducido entre mayo 2006 y agosto 2007 en un bosque tropical perennifolio en el estado de Oaxaca, sureste de México, durante 80 noches, con un esfuerzo de muestreo total de 73 200m² de red-hora. Se capturaron 187 individuos, 98 hembras y 78 machos. Se estimó el tamaño poblacional en 237 individuos, con un mayor número en la época lluviosa. Las capturas están correlacionadas con la precipitación mensual y este fenómeno puede estar ligado a la abundancia del recurso alimenticio en zonas tropicales y subtropicales. La proporción de sexos y la estructura de edad son las típicas de varios murciélagos filostómidos. El patrón de reproducción fue del tipo poliestrica bimodal, con periodos de nacimiento entre agosto-septiembre y abril-junio. Las hembras muestran mayor peso corporal que los machos. Es posible que este murciélago presente una baja densidad comparada con la de otros murciélagos filostómidos en todo su rango de distribución en México.
Subject(s)
Animals , Female , Male , Chiroptera/physiology , Chiroptera/classification , Mexico , Population Density , Population Dynamics , Reproduction , Seasons , Seed Dispersal , TreesABSTRACT
Objective To estimate the death number of children under age 5 in Linzhou city during 2004 to 2005 using the capture-recapture method, and to evaluate the integrality of data about the children death report in all death cause registry. Methods The data of children death were collected from sources of registry office, village symposium for the 3rd national death cause survey and police registries. Cases in every source were matched on the name, sex, age, date of death, cause of death and resident address. To fit for dependencies and heterogeneities between three sources, a log-linear model in stratified age and gender was used to estimate the death number of children which did not appear in three sources. Results It was reported that death number of children under age 5 was 359 and the mortality was 2.16% for combined three sources; but from the registry office, the number and mortality were 291 and 1.75%, respectively. The capture-recapture method estimated that the number of death was 398 and the mortality was 2.39%. Under-reporting rates of registry and aggregate database were 26.9% and 9.8%. Female deaths were more likely to go unreported. Under-reporting rates of registry got higher with the decrease of the age at death. Conclusion Registry office or aggregated database underestimated the death number of children under age 5. On the base of data which were collected from police, village and registry, using the capture-recapture method can adjust the death number of children.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To estimate mumps incidence during the study period and to evaluate the completeness of case reporting. METHODS: Capture-recapture methods, originally developed for counting wildlife animals, were used. The data sources were 1) the National Notifiable Communicable Disease Reporting System (NNCDRS; 848 cases), 2) the School Health Reporting System, temporarily administered by the Division of Education (SHRS; 1,026 cases), and 3) a survey of students (785 cases). We estimated the number of unobserved mumps cases by matching the three data sources and fitting loglinear models to the data. We then determined the estimated total number of mumps cases by adding this to the number of observed cases. Completeness was defined as the proportion of observed cases from each source to the total of estimated cases. RESULTS: The total number of observed cases was 1,844 and the total number of estimated cases was 1,935 (95% CI: 1,878-2,070). The overall completeness was 43.8% of the NNCDRS, 53.0% of the SHRS, and 40.6% of the survey. However, completeness varied by area and age. CONCLUSION: Although the completeness of NNCDRS data appeared higher than in the past, it is difficult to generalize this result. In Korea, it is possible to estimate the size of health hazards relatively cheaply and quickly, by applying capture-recapture methods to various data using a multiple data collection system.
Subject(s)
Animals , Humans , Communicable Diseases , Information Storage and Retrieval , Education , Incidence , Korea , Mumps , School Health ServicesABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the completeness of cancer registration with Capture-recapture method. METHODS: The study was conducted in the population based cancer registry of Kwangju, Korea, for which there are three main sources of notification: reports by Korean Central Cancer Registry, reports by pathology data, and the others reports by radiology data, death certificates, etc. The defined cases in three sources were matched by 13 digits Resident Register Number. To derive an estimates, log-linear models were applicated. RESULTS: Overall completeness was estimated to be around 93%. There was some variation with age(consistently high levels below age group 60-74 years, a minimum of 88.6% above 75 years). Among the most common cancer sites, estimates of completeness were highest for thyroid cancer(97.1%), while lower estimates of completeness were derived for stomach cancer(92.3%), liver cancer(92.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Careful application of Capture-recapture method may provide an alternative to traditional approaches for estimating the completeness of cancer registration in Kwangju city.
Subject(s)
Humans , Death Certificates , Korea , Linear Models , Liver , Pathology , Stomach , Thyroid GlandABSTRACT
Objective To investigate the real incidence of malaria in Sihong County located in the north of Jiangsu Province and estimate the epidemic actuality in this area. Methods By using the capture-recapture method (CRM), the patients and incidence of malaria were estimated in Sihong. Results In 9 villages of 3 townships, 4896 residents among 1248 families were investigated and 56 cases of malaria found (65 cases reported before) in 2002.There were 121 cases calculated by using CRM and the theoretic cases were 1.86 times of those which had been reported. Conclusion The data of blood-examination collected from the county and towns are obviously different. It indicates that there are potential troubles in the routine blood examination to the fevered patients in this county. The incidence of a certain town is still above 0.2%. The epidemic actuality of malaria is still serious in this county.[