Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95 percent CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95 percent CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Application of software program in the ecological analysis of medicinal plants of Dao ethnic minority at BaVi commune

DECODA is a ecological model. Functions of DECODA include: research, analysis and management of population and community. Master file of DECODA contains species variables, community data and sample variables. DECODA includes 3 modules: MDS, DECORANA, TWINSPAN. Applying DECODA in analyzing medicinal plant (MP) gardens of Yao ethnicity in TWINSPAN classifies 56 MP gardens into 6 groups based on characteristics of MP: I, II, III, IV groups include MPs that fit with high sunlight, heavy soil, medium moisture and poor humus soil. V, VI groups are in opposition to the above groups. DECORANA classifies the MP gardens into 7 groups based on characteristics of gardens: I, II, III, IV groups have a favourable conditions for growing MP and the owner of the gardens pay more attention in growing MP. V, VI groups are in opposition to the above groups.