Aplicabilidad de modelos predictivos de falla renal en enfermedad renal crónica: una revisión de alcance / Usability of predictive models of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease: a scoping review

Resumen Introducción: la identificación de los pacientes con mayor riesgo de progresar a falla renal es fundamental para la planeación del tratamiento en la enfermedad renal crónica, pero no ha podido llevarse a cabo consistentemente. Los modelos de predicción podrían ser una herramienta útil, sin embargo, su usabilidad en la Enfermedad Renal Crónica es limitada hasta ahora y no se comprenden muy bien las barreras y limitaciones. Métodos: se desarrolló una revisión de alcance de la literatura disponible sobre modelos predictivos de falla renal o reglas de pronóstico en pacientes con Enfermedad Renal Crónica. Las búsquedas se realizaron sistemáticamente en Cochrane, Pubmed y Embase. Se realizó una revisión ciega e independiente por dos evaluadores para identificar estudios que informaran sobre el desarrollo, la validación o la evaluación del impacto de un modelo construido para predecir la progresión al estadio avanzado de la enfermedad renal crónica. Se realizó una evaluación crítica de la calidad de la evidencia proporcionada con el sistema GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation). Resultados: de 1279 artículos encontrados, fueron incluidos 19 estudios para la síntesis cualitativa final. La mayoría de los estudios eran primarios, con diseños observacionales retrospectivos y unos pocos correspondieron a revisiones sistemáticas. No se encontraron guías de práctica clínica. La síntesis cualitativa evidenció gran heterogeneidad en el desarrollo de los modelos, así como en el reporte de las medidas de desempeño global, la validez interna y la falta de validez externa en la mayoría de los estudios. La calificación de la evidencia arrojó una calidad global baja, con inconsistencia entre los estudios e importantes limitaciones metodológicas. Conclusiones: la mayoría de los modelos predictivos disponibles, no han sido adecuadamente validados y, por tanto, se consideran de uso limitado para evaluar el pronóstico individual del paciente con enfermedad renal crónica. Por lo tanto, se requieren esfuerzos adicionales para centrar el desarrollo e implementación de modelos predictivos en la validez externa y la usabilidad y disminuir la brecha entre la generación, la síntesis de evidencia y la toma de decisiones en el ámbito del cuidado del paciente.

Abstract Background: the identification of patients at higher risk of progressing to kidney failure is essential for treatment planning in chronic kidney disease, but it has not been possible to do this consistently. Predictive models could be a useful tool, however, their usability in chronic kidney disease is limited and the barriers and limitations are not well understood. Methods: a scoping review of the available literature on ESRD predictive models or prognostic rules in chronic kidney disease patients was developed. Searches were systematically executed on Cochrane, MEDLINE, and Embase. a blind and independent review was carried out by two evaluators to identify studies that reported on the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model constructed to predict the progression to an advanced stage of chronic kidney disease. A critical evaluation of the quality of the evidence provided with the GRADE system (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) was made. Findings: of 1279 articles found, 19 studies were included for the final qualitative synthesis. Most of the studies were primary, with retrospective observational designs and a few corresponded to systematic reviews. No clinical practice guidelines were found. The qualitative synthesis showed high heterogeneity in the development of the models, as well as in the reporting of global performance measures, internal validity, and the lack of external validity in most of the studies. The evidence rating was of low overall quality, with inconsistency between studies and important methodological limitations. Conclusions: most of the available predictive models have not been adequately validated and, therefore, are of limited use to assess the individual prognosis of patients with chronic kidney disease. Therefore, additional efforts are required to focus the development and implementation of predictive models on external validity and usability and bridge the gap between generation, synthesis of evidence, and decision-making in the field of patient care.

Efficiency of preeclampsia screening based on biomarkers of aneuploidy screening in first trimester / 中华围产医学杂志

Objective:To evaluate the performance of biomarkers in aneuploidy screening in the first trimester-pregnancy associated plasma protein A(PAPP-A) combined with Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF)'s competing risk model in screening preeclampsia among our population.Methods:This study was based on a prospective cohort of singleton pregnant women who underwent aneuploidy screening in the first trimester in Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from January 2017 to September 2020. Mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), and PAPP-A were converted into multiples of median (MoM) using the algorithm disclosed on the website of the FMF (fetalmedicine.org). The predictive outcomes of maternal factors alone or in combination with MAP, UtA-PI, and PAPP-A (alone or in combination) were calculated. Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test or rank sum test were used for comparison among groups and Bonferroni method for pairwise comparisons. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the screening efficiency and to calculate the sensitivities of predicting preeclampsia, term and preterm preeclampsia at false-positive rates of 5% and 10%. The predictive performance of this model was further compared to the screening strategy that was recommended in Diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and pre-eclampsia in pregnancy: a clinical practice guideline in China (2020). Results:Among the 5 144 singleton pregnancy women who were recruited in the cohort, 4 919 cases were included and analyzed in this study. A total of 223 cases were diagnosed as preeclampsia (4.5%), including 55 preterm (1.1%) and 168 term preeclampsia (3.4%). The median of MoM values of MAP, UtA-PI, and PAPP-A in the non-preeclampsia group were around 1.0±0.1. Statistical significance was observed in the difference of MAP, UtA-PI, and PAPP-A Mom between women with preterm preeclampsia and those without preeclampsia [1.061 (0.999-1.150) vs 0.985 (0.935-4.043), 1.115 (0.873-1.432) vs 1.039 (0.864-1.236), 0.820 (0.493-1.066) vs 1.078 (0.756-1.508)], which was also seen in the difference of MAP and PAPP-A Mom between women with term preeclampsia and those without preeclampsia [1.065 (1.002-1.133) vs 0.985 (0.935-4.043), 1.007 (0.624-1.393) vs 1.078 (0.756-1.508)] (all P<0.025). The combination screening with maternal factors+MAP+UtA-PI+PAPP-A was noted for the best efficiency. In predicting preeclampsia preterm and term preeclampsia at the false-positive rate of 10%, the sensitivity of the model was 53.0%, 76.4% and 44.6% respectively. Using the screening method recommended in Diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and pre-eclampsia in pregnancy: a clinical practice guideline in China(2020), the proportion of people at high risk of preeclampsia was 5.9% (290/4 919), and the sensitivity for predicting preterm preeclampsia was 25.5% (14/55), which was significantly lower than the combination screening with maternal factors+MAP+UtA-PI+PAPP-A [65.5% (36/55)] when using the same proportion of high-risk population. Conclusion:The preeclampsia screening model based on aneuploidy screening biomarkers in the first trimester--PAPP-A in combination with materral factors, MAP, UtA-PI, can effectively screen preterm preeclampsia in the local population without increasing the laboratory costs.

The accuracy of various models in predicting coronary artery disease in the world: A systematic review / 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志

@#Objective    To systematically review the models for predicting coronary artery disease (CAD) and demonstrate their predictive efficacy. Methods    PubMed, EMbase and China National Knowledge Internet were searched comprehensively by computer. We included studies which were designed to develop and validate predictive models of CAD. The studies published from inception to September 30, 2020 were searched. Two reviewers independently evaluated the studies according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria and extracted the baseline characteristics and metrics of model performance. Results    A total of 30 studies were identified, and 19 diagnostic predictive models were for CAD. Seventeen models had external validation group with area under curve (AUC)>0.7. The AUC for the external validation of the traditional models, including Diamond-Forrester model, updated Diamond-Forrester model, Duke Clinical Score, CAD consortium clinical score, ranged from 0.49 to 0.87. Conclusion    Most models have modest discriminative ability. The predictive efficacy of traditional models varies greatly among different populations.

External validation and newly development of a nomogram to predict overall survival of abiraterone-treated, castration-resistant patients with metastatic prostate cancer / 亚洲男科学杂志(英文版)

Abiraterone acetate is approved for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC); however, its effects vary. An accurate prediction model to identify patient groups that will benefit from abiraterone treatment is therefore urgently required. The Chi model exhibits a good profile for risk classification, although its utility for the chemotherapy-naive group is unclear. This study aimed to externally validate the Chi model and develop a new nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 110 patients. Patients were distributed among good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, according to the Chi model. The good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups had a sample size of 59 (53.6%), 34 (30.9%), and 17 (15.5%) in our dataset, and a median OS of 48.4, 29.1, and 10.5 months, respectively. The C-index of external validation of Chi model was 0.726. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified low hemoglobin concentrations (<110 g l-1), liver metastasis, and a short time interval from androgen deprivation therapy to abiraterone initiation (<36 months) as predictors of OS. Accordingly, a new nomogram was developed with a C-index equal to 0.757 (95% CI, 0.678-0.836). In conclusion, the Chi model predicted the prognosis of abiraterone-treated, chemotherapy-naive patients with mCRPC, and we developed a new nomogram to predict the overall survival of this group of patients with less parameters.

External validation and newly development of a nomogram to predict overall survival of abiraterone-treated, castration-resistant patients with metastatic prostate cancer / 亚洲男科学杂志(英文版)

Abiraterone acetate is approved for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC); however, its effects vary. An accurate prediction model to identify patient groups that will benefit from abiraterone treatment is therefore urgently required. The Chi model exhibits a good profile for risk classification, although its utility for the chemotherapy-naive group is unclear. This study aimed to externally validate the Chi model and develop a new nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 110 patients. Patients were distributed among good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, according to the Chi model. The good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups had a sample size of 59 (53.6%), 34 (30.9%), and 17 (15.5%) in our dataset, and a median OS of 48.4, 29.1, and 10.5 months, respectively. The C-index of external validation of Chi model was 0.726. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified low hemoglobin concentrations (<110 g-l-1), liver metastasis, and a short time interval from androgen deprivation therapy to abiraterone initiation (<36 months) as predictors of OS. Accordingly, a new nomogram was developed with a C-index equal to 0.757 (95% CI, 0.678-0.836). In conclusion, the Chi model predicted the prognosis of abiraterone-treated, chemotherapy-naive patients with mCRPC, and we developed a new nomogram to predict the overall survival of this group of patients with less parameters.

EuroSCORE subestima el riesgo de mortalidad en cirugía cardiaca valvular de población mexicana / EuroSCORE underestimate the mortality risk in cardiac valve surgery of Mexican population

Resumen: Objetivo: El European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) estratifica el riesgo quirúrgico en cirugía cardiaca de manera fácil y accesible; se validó en Norteamérica con buenos resultados, pero en muchos países de Latinoamérica se utiliza rutinariamente sin validación previa. Nuestro objetivo fue validar EuroSCORE en pacientes con cirugía valvular en el Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez (INCICh) de México. Métodos: Se aplicaron los modelos de EuroSCORE aditivo y logístico para predecir mortalidad en pacientes con cirugía valvular de marzo de 2004 a marzo de 2008. Se usó la prueba de bondad de ajuste de Hosmer-Lemeshow para evaluar la calibración. Se calculó el área bajo la curva ROC para determinar la discriminación. Resultados: Se incluyeron 1,188 pacientes con edades de 51.3 ± 14.5 años, 52% mujeres. Hubo diferencias significativas en la prevalencia de los factores de riesgo entre la población del INCICh y del EuroSCORE. La mortalidad total fue de 9.68% con predichas de 5% y 5.6% por EuroSCORE aditivo y logístico. De acuerdo a EuroSCORE aditivo tenían riesgo bajo 11.3%, intermedio 52.9% y alto 35.9%; para estos grupos la mortalidad fue de 0.7%, 6.4% y 17.4% contra las predichas de 2%, 3.9% y 7.64%. La prueba de Hosmer-Lemeshow tuvo una p < 0.001 para ambos modelos, y el área bajo la curva ROC de 0.707 y de 0.694 para EuroSCORE aditivo y logístico. Conclusión: En el INCICh el 88.7% de los pacientes con cirugía valvular tuvieron riesgo intermedio a alto y EuroSCORE subestimó el riesgo de mortalidad.

Abstract: Objective: The EuroSCORE (European System for cardiac operative risk evaluation) stratifies cardiac risk surgery in easy and accessible manner; it was validated in North America with good results but in many countries of Latin America is used routinely without prior validation. Our objective was to validate the EuroSCORE in patients with cardiac valve surgery at the Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez (INCICh) in México. Methods: EuroSCORE additive and logistic models were used to predict mortality in adults undergoing cardiac valve surgery from march 2004 to march 2008. The goodness of fit test of Hosmer-Lemeshow was used to evaluate the calibration. The area under the ROC curve was calculated to determinate discrimination. Results: We included 1188 patients with ages of 51.3 ± 14.5 years, 52% women. There were significant differences in the prevalence of risk factors among the INCICh and the EuroSCORE populations. Total mortality was 9.68% versus 5% and 5.6% predicted by additive and logistic EuroSCORE. According to additive EuroSCORE the risk was low in 11.3%, intermediate in 52.9% and high in 35.9%; for these groups the mortality was .7%, 6.34% and 17.4% against those predicted of 2%, 3.9% and 7.64%. Hosmer-Lemeshow test had a P < .001 for both models and the area under the ROC curve was .707 and .694 for additive and logistic EuroSCORE. Conclusion: In the INCICh 88.7% of patients with cardiac valve surgery had intermediate to high risk and EuroSCORE underestimated the risk of mortality.

Development of the Biological Prognostic Score in patients with advanced cancer and prospective verification of its external validity: Comparison with the Palliative Prognostic Index

Objective: To develop and confirm the validity of a Biological Prognostic Score using only blood test results for prediction of prognosis in patients with advanced cancer. Methods: We conducted parametric survival time analysis using blood test results, age, sex, and primary diagnosis as independent variables, and event of death as a dependent variable, among patients in a palliative care unit (a development cohort). We then developed the Biological Prognostic Score (BPS). Thereafter, we confirmed the accuracy of the BPS and the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) prospectively among patients, who withdrew or withheld further curative or life-prolonging therapies, in other facilities (a validation cohort). Results: We developed the BPS, which consists of cholinesterase, blood urea nitrogen, and total iron-binding capacity, from 122 patients in a development cohort. We then examined 195 patients in a validation cohort and found that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 1-9 week survival prediction was BPS=0.76-0.86 and PPI=0.69-0.73. Discussion: Our results suggest that the BPS was valid. It will be necessary to perform further examinations in multiple facilities and to explore more generalized parameters that could replace total iron-binding capacity in our BPS.

Validation of a nomogram for predicting outcome of vulvar cancer patients, primarily treated by surgery, in Korean population: multicenter retrospective study through Korean Gynecologic Oncology Group (KGOG-1010) / 부인종양

OBJECTIVE: Regarding vulvar cancer, a nomogram has been suggested for the prediction of relapse-free survival (RFS). While the nomogram has been developed and validated in a Western study, there was no validation in Korean population. Thus, we have undertaken the study to assess the applicability of nomogram for predicting RFS in Korean patients with vulvar cancer. METHODS: A total of 204 cases newly diagnosed as vulvar cancer between 1982 and 2006 were identified. Among them 70 cases were not eligible due to inappropriate cell type (40 cases) and radiation as primary therapy (30 cases). Forty-four cases were not evaluable due to inadequate data and persistent disease. Finally a total of 90 patients primarily treated by surgery were included for analysis. Variables including age and the characteristics of primary tumor, nodal status, and surgical margin were collected for predicting RFS based on nomogram, which was compared with actual RFS. A calibration plot was drawn showing the actual versus predicted probability for 6 groups of patients segregated according to their predicted probabilities. In addition, discrimination of the nomogram was quantified with the concordance index. RESULTS: Patients' mean age was 58 years and mean follow-up period was 47.9 months. Observed 2y- and 5y-RFS rates were 81% and 68%, respectively, corresponding to 79% and 72% in the original cohort. The trend line in calibration plot showed comparable concordance with an ideal line, having a slope of 1.04 for 2y-RFS (R(2)=.35) and 0.98 for 5y-RFS (R2=.80), respectively. The concordance index was 0.79 in the KGOG data set, which was improved to 0.82 with the data set limited to squamous cell carcinoma. CONCLUSION: The nomogram provides the predictive capacity for relapse-free survival in Korean patients with vulvar cancer.