Análisis estadístico implicativo para identificar factores pronósticos de mortalidad por linfomas en niños y adolescentes

Fundamento: el análisis estadístico implicativo surgió en los años 80 para resolver problemas de la didáctica de las matemáticas. Recientemente se fundamentó su empleo en las Ciencias Médicas para identificar factores de riesgo y pronósticos. Objetivo: evaluar la utilidad del análisis estadístico implicativo en la identificación de los factores pronósticos que más inciden en la mortalidad por linfomas en niños y adolescentes. Método: se realizó un estudio de casos y controles en niños y adolescentes con diagnóstico de linfoma Hodgkin y no Hodgkin atendidos en el Hospital Docente Pediátrico Sur Dr. Antonio María Béguez César de Santiago de Cuba en el período de enero 2008 a enero 2021. Se analizó como variable dependiente el estado del paciente fallecido o vivo al momento del estudio y como covariables se tomaron: el estadio de mal pronóstico, la presencia de síntomas B, el subtipo histológico, la presencia de tres o más sitios extraganglionares, la metástasis, edad y presencia de masa tumoral. Se aplicaron dos técnicas estadísticas, la regresión logística binaria y el análisis estadístico implicativo. Resultados en los casos fue más frecuente el linfoma no Hodgkin mientras que en los controles predominó el Hodgkin. Ambas técnicas reconocieron el subtipo histológico y la afectación extraganglionar como factores pronósticos desfavorables. El análisis estadístico implicativo reconoció además el estadio y la presencia de metástasis. Conclusión: el análisis estadístico implicativo es una técnica que complementa la regresión logística binaria en la identificación de factores pronósticos, lo que permite mejor comprensión de la causalidad.

Background: the implicative statistical analysis arose in the 80s to solve problems in the didactics of mathematics. Its use in the Medical Sciences to identify risk factors and prognoses was recently founded. Objective: to evaluate the usefulness of the implicative statistical analysis in the identification of the prognostic factors that most affect mortality from lymphomas in children and adolescents. Method: a case-control study was carried out in children and adolescents diagnosed with Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma treated at the Dr. Antonio María Béguez César Sur Pediatric Teaching Hospital in Santiago de Cuba from January 2008 to January 2021. The state of the deceased or alive patient at the time of the study was analyzed as the dependent variable and the following were taken as covariates: poor prognosis stage, presence of B symptoms, histological subtype, presence of three or more extranodal sites, metastasis, age and presence of tumor mass. Two statistical techniques were applied: binary logistic regression and implicative statistical analysis. Results: non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was more frequent in the cases, while Hodgkin's lymphoma predominated in the controls. Both techniques recognized the histological subtype and extranodal involvement as unfavorable prognostic factors. The implicative statistical analysis also recognized the stage and the presence of metastases. Conclusion: the implicative statistical analysis is a technique that complements the binary logistic regression in the identification of prognostic factors, which allows a better understanding of causality.

Autocorrelación espacial de mortalidad por cáncer de mama en la Región Metropolitana, Chile: estudio ecológico / Spatial autocorrelation of breast cancer mortality in the Metropolitan Region, Chile: an ecological study

INTRODUCCIÓN El cáncer de mama es la neoplasia maligna más común en las mujeres en todo el mundo y en Chile, siendo la primera causa de muerte oncológica femenina. Se ha reportado amplia variación en la mortalidad, con focos geográficos de mayor riesgo. OBJETIVO Analizar espacialmente la mortalidad por cáncer de mama en mujeres de la Región Metropolitana en 2015. MÉTODOS Estudio ecológico. Se utilizaron los datos de los registros de defunciones del año 2015 (C50 según CIE10), y las proyecciones poblacionales del Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas. Se calcularon tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de mama brutas y razones de mortalidad estandarizadas. Se realizó un análisis epidemiológico espacial estimando el índice I de Moran Global y Local para evaluar autocorrelación espacial. Los resultados se presentan en mapas (cartografía precenso 2016). RESULTADOS Se registraron 622 defunciones por cáncer de mama en la Región Metropolitana en 2015. La edad promedio de las mujeres fallecidas fue de 66 años (desviación estándar: 15,5). El 92,4% de las muertes se registró en zonas centrales o urbanas. Sin embargo, las mayores tasas de mortalidad se observaron en comunas periféricas. No se observó autocorrelación espacial global en la región (I de Moran de 0,007; p = 0,134). A nivel local, cuatro comunas se diferencian de forma significativa de sus vecinas. CONCLUSIONES El riesgo de morir por cáncer de mama en la Región Metropolitana de Chile se concentra en comunas periféricas. Cuatro comunas de la región presentan riesgos diferentes de sus comunas vecinas, por lo que es necesario explorar factores que explican la desigual distribución de las muertes.

INTRODUCTION Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women worldwide and Chile, being the leading cause of female cancer death. A wide variation in mortality has been reported, with geographic clusters of higher risk. OBJECTIVE To spatially analyze mortality from breast cancer in women in the Metropolitan Region in 2015. METHODS Ecological study of location. We used death records in 2015 (C50 according to ICD10) and population projections of the Statistics Institute to estimate mortality rates. We calculated crude breast cancer mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios and performed a spatial epidemiological analysis of breast cancer mortality in women, estimating the global and local Moran I index to assess spatial autocorrelation. We present the results in maps according to the 2016 pre-census cartography. RESULTS There were 622 deaths from breast cancer in the Metropolitan Region in 2015. The mean age was 66 years (SD: 15.5). 92.4% of deaths were registered in urban or central areas. However, the highest mortality rates were observed in peripherical districts. No global spatial autocorrelation was observed in the region (Moran's I 0.007 p = 0.134). However, at the local level, four districts differ significantly from their neighbors. CONCLUSIONS The risk of dying from breast cancer in the Metropolitan Region of Chile is concentrated in women from peripherical communes. Four districts in the region present different risks from their neighboring districts. It is necessary to investigate local realities to prevent deaths from this pathology.

Maternal mortality statistics and risk factors at a tertiary hospital in Makurdi, Nigeria

Background: To determine the magnitude of maternal mortality and its major causes including the trend and social demographic factors associated with the problem in our environment.Methods: A retrospective institutional review of all the case notes of maternal mortality at the Benue State University Teaching Hospital, Makurdi over a six-year study period, from July, 2012 to June, 2018 were computed and analyzed.Results: A total of 2,442 deliveries took place within the period under review, out of which 2,325 were live births. Total maternal deaths were 26, giving a total maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 1,118 deaths per 100, 000. The major causes of maternal mortality during this period were unsafe abortion and its complications, hypertensive diseases in pregnancy, puerperal sepsis and obstetric hemorrhage.Conclusions: Maternal mortality remains very high at our facility          y, although with a declining trend. This may be a reflection of the situation in the general population. Increased coverage of the National Health Insurance Scheme, blood availability and utilization of antenatal services will further reduce maternal mortality in Nigeria.

Perfil de mortalidad en la provincia de Santiago de Cuba durante 2017 / Mortality profile in Santiago de Cuba province during 2017

Se realizó un estudio descriptivo y transversal de los 9 211 fallecidos por todas las causas en la provincia de Santiago de Cuba durante 2017, con vistas a describir el perfil de mortalidad en ese período. En la serie se observó un incremento de la mortalidad general con respecto a 2016; asimismo, como causas principales de muerte figuraron las enfermedades del corazón, los tumores malignos y las enfermedades cerebrovasculares. Los municipios que dominaron el perfil de mortalidad fueron Contramaestre, San Luis, Songo-La Maya, Santiago de Cuba y III Frente, principalmente por las enfermedades del corazón. Por otra parte, el mayor riesgo de morir por tumores malignos en las féminas obedeció a la localización en pulmón, mama e intestino, excepto en el recto; en los hombres, en próstata, pulmón y colon, respectivamente. Se recomienda dirigir las acciones en salud según el riesgo estratificado en esta provincia.

A descriptive and cross-sectional study of the 9 211 dead patients due to all causes was carried out in Santiago de Cuba province during 2017, with the aim of describing the mortality profile in that period. In the series an increment of the general mortality was observed when compared to 2016; also, as main causes of death there were heart diseases, malignant tumors and cerebrovascular diseases. The municipalities that prevailed in the mortality profile were Contramaestre, San Luis, Songo-La Maya, Santiago de Cuba and III Frente, mainly due to heart diseases. On the other hand, the greatest risk of dying due to malignant tumors in the female patients obeyed to the localization in lung, breast and intestine, except in the rectum; in the men, in prostate, lung and colon, respectively. It is recommended to direct the efforts in health according to the stratified risk in this province.

Calidad de los sistemas de información de mortalidad por violencias en Argentina y Brasil - 1990-2010 / The quality of information systems on violence-related deaths in Argentina and Brazil between 1990 and 2010

Las muertes por violencias son un problema de salud pública por la magnitud de su impacto social y en los servicios de salud. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo de tendencia temporal a partir de los sistemas de información oficiales nacionales de mortalidad por violencias en Argentina y Brasil en el periodo 1990-2010. Se elaboraron indicadores de la calidad de la información según sexo, edad y causa de defunción. Los resultados muestran una tendencia temporal a la mejoría de calidad en los sistemas de información. Esta tendencia se repite cuando analizamos las muertes por violencias en particular, con una disminución de los registros por muertes por violencias de intencionalidad ignorada; y un porcentaje alto de muertes por armas de fuego de intencionalidad ignorada en Argentina. El análisis de la calidad de los sistemas de información de mortalidad por violencias permite detectar problemas y orientar acciones para obtener información de mayor calidad a fin de orientar políticas públicas preventivas.

Violence-related deaths are a public health issue by virtue of the magnitude of their impact on society and on the health services. A study of the descriptive temporal trend was conducted using the official national information systems of violence-related mortality in Argentina and Brazil for the period from 1990 to 2010. Indicators were created to evaluate information quality by sex, age, and cause of death. The results demonstrate a temporal trend of improvement in the quality of the information systems. This trend is repeated especially when violence-related deaths are analyzed, with a decrease in the number of records for violence-related death of undetermined intent; as well as a high percentage of firearm-related deaths of undetermined intent in Argentina. The analysis of the quality of information systems regarding violence-related deaths makes it possible to detect problems and orient actions in order to obtain better quality information and therefore permit improvement in the creation of preventive public policies.

Causas mal definidas de morte e óbitos sem assistência / Ill-defined causes of death and unattended deaths, Brazil, 2003

OBJETIVOS: Este trabalho estuda a distribuição dos óbitos por causas mal definidas no Brasil, no ano de 2003, entre as quais identifica a proporção de mortes sem assistência. MÉTODOS: Os dados provieram do Sistema de Informações Sobre Mortalidade, coordenado pelo Ministério da Saúde. As causas mal definidas de morte compreenderam as incluídas no "Capítulo XVIII - Sintomas, sinais e achados anormais de exames clínicos e de laboratório não classificados em outra parte" da Classificação Estatística Internacional de Doenças e Problemas Relacionados à Saúde, décima revisão, capítulo este no qual a categoria R98 identificava a "morte sem assistência". RESULTADOS: No Brasil, em 2003, a causa básica de 13,3 por cento dos óbitos foi identificada como mal definida, sendo que as proporções maiores ocorreram nas Regiões Nordeste e Norte. Do total de causas mal definidas no país, 53,3 por cento corresponderam a mortes sem assistência, proporção esta que superou 70 por cento nos Estados do Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Paraíba e Alagoas. CONCLUSÃO: Dada a estrutura descentralizada para o levantamento dos óbitos no país, identifica-se a maior responsabilidade dos municípios e, em seguida, dos Estados para o aprimoramento da qualidade das estatísticas de mortalidade.

BACKGROUND: We studied the distribution of deaths from ill-defined causes that occurred in Brazil during 2003, from which was identified the proportion of unattended deaths. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System, coordinated by the Ministry of Health. Causes of death included in "Chapter XVIII - Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not classified elsewhere" of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, tenth revision, were considered ill-defined, among which the category R98 identified "unattended deaths". RESULTS: In Brazil during 2003 the underlying causes of 13.3 percent of deaths were included in the Chapter of ill-defined causes, and the highest proportions of these deaths occurred in the Northeast and North Regions. Considering the total deaths from ill-defined causes, 53 percent correspond to unattended deaths. This proportion increased to over 70 percent in the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Paraíba and Alagoas. CONCLUSION: Due to the decentralized structure of data collection in the country, we believe that the municipalities bear the major responsibility, followed by the states, for upgrading the quality of mortality statistics.