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Objective To analyze the trend of lung cancer death rate in China from 2006 to 2020 to provide reference for the prevention of lung cancer. Methods The data of Chinese lung cancer deaths from 2006 to 2020 were collected from the health statistical yearbook.The age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to evaluate the age, period, and birth cohort effect of lung cancer deaths. Results The overall lung cancer mortality of Chinese residents showed an upward trend from 2006 to 2020.The age effect of lung cancer death risk increased with age, and the period effect continued to increase with age.The cohort effect showed that the lung cancer death risk of residents born after 1924 showed a downward trend. Conclusion The prevention and treatment of lung cancer in urban and rural residents aged 50 and above and the treatment of high-risk factors of lung cancer must be continuously strengthened.The period effect on lung cancer should be further explored, and the early intervention of young cohort should be given attention.
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Objective@#To investigate the trend in incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City, Hubei Province from 2008 to 2022, and to examine the age-period-cohort effect, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of hepatitis C prevention strategies. @*Methods@#Demographic data and incidence data of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 to 2022 were collected through the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the trend in incidence of hepatitis C was analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC). The effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence of hepatitis C were examined with an age-period-cohort model. @*Results@#The average annual incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 and 2022 was 20.26/105, with a male incidence of 20.04/105 and a female incidence of 20.47/105. The incidence of hepatitis C initially rose and then fell (AAPC=5.375%, P<0.05), with a rising trend from 2008 to 2018 (APC=13.370%, P<0.05) and a decreasing trend from 2018 to 2022 (APC=-12.231%, P<0.05). The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise with age, and the 80-84 age group had the highest risk (RR=11.420, 95%CI: 7.631-17.090) in relative to the 45-49 age group. The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with time, and an increased risk of hepatitis C was seen from 2013 to 2017 (RR=1.393, 95%CI: 1.272-1.525) and a decreased risk was seen from 2018 to 2022 (RR=1.237, 95%CI: 1.072-1.428) in relative to the period from 2008 to 2012. The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with the cohort, and a higher risk was found in the 1965-1984 cohort (all RR>1.300) in relative to the 1960-1964 cohort. The incidence of hepatitis C, the age and period effects in men and women, and the cohort effects in men were consistent with the whole population. In addition to the 1965-1984 cohort, a higher risk was found in the 2000-2014 cohort in women (all RR>1.250).@*Conclusions@#From 2008 to 2022, the incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City experienced a notable rise and subsequent decline. The incidence of hepatitis C increased with age, with higher risks seen among middle-aged and elderly people.
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Objective@#To investigate the trends in incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 and to examine the effect of age, period and cohort on the incidence of HIV/AIDS, so as to provide insights into the improvements of the HIV/AIDS control measures. @*Methods@#Data pertaining to incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) datasets, and the trends in incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed with annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) using a jointpoint regression model. The effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence of HIV/AIDS in China were examined with an age-period-cohort model. @*Results@#The age-standardized incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared an overall tendency towards a rise in China from 1990 (0.80/105) to 2019 (2.21/105) (AAPC=3.209%, P<0.05), and the incidence of HIV/AIDS showed a tendency towards a rise from 1990 to 1997 (AAPC=9.044%, P<0.05) and from 1997 to 2003 (AAPC=17.598%, P<0.05), a decline from 2006 to 2014 (AAPC=-8.412%, P<0.05) and remained relatively stable from 2003 to 2006 and from 2014 to 2019 (both P>0.05). The incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise with age, and peaked among patients at ages of 25 to 29 years (4.93/105) and 75 to 79 years (7.38/105). The risk of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with time, and a reduced risk of HIV/AIDS was found from 1990 to 1994 (RR=0.297), from 1995 to 1999 (RR=0.523), from 2005 to 2009 (RR=0.737), from 2010 to 2014 (RR=0.412) and from 2015 to 2019 (RR=0.351) in relative to the period from 2000 to 2004. The risk of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise with the cohort, and a higher risk of HIV/AIDS was found in the 1930-1934 cohort (RR=1.880) and 2000-2004 cohort (RR=2.978) in relative to the 1955-1959 cohort. @*Conclusions@#The incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline in China from 1990 to 2019, and remained at a low level since 2014. The adolescents and elderly were high-risk groups of HIV/AIDS. A variety of health education interventions and intensified active HIV/AIDS screening are recommended.
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Objective:To analyze the tendency of incidence and mortality of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 through 2019 and to estimate the age-period-cohort effect.Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, the incidence and mortality data of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 were extracted. The trends of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents by gender was analyzed using the joinpoint regression model, and the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated. The age-period-cohort model was used to quantitatively assess the effects of age, period, and cohort on ASIR and ASDR for mechanical injuries.Results:① Overall tendency: from 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of mechanical injuries showed an increasing trend (540.95/100 000 in 1990 vs. 815.34/100 000 in 2019), and the ASDR first increased slightly and then decreased (2.62/100 000 in 1990 vs. 2.87/100 000 in 2005 vs. 1.77/100 000 in 2019) among Chinese residents. During the observation period, ASIR and ASDR for mechanical injuries of male were higher than female. ② Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the ASIR of mechanical injuries had a fluctuating trend of increasing first and then decreasing and then rising rapidly among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC = 1.42%, t = 9.59, P < 0.001). The ASIR of the Chinese male showed a slight decrease and then continued to increase (AAPC = 1.47%, t = 8.72, P < 0.001), while the ASIR of the Chinese female showed a rapid rising at first, then rapidly declining and then rising again (AAPC = 1.31%, t = 12.11, P < 0.001). From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR of mechanical injuries showed a fluctuating downward trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then rapidly decreasing among Chinese residents (AAPC = -1.39%, t = -6.72, P < 0.001). The decrease rate of ASDR among male was as same as that among all population (AAPC = -1.44%, t = -7.29, P < 0.001), but the decrease rate of ASDR in female was relatively slow (AAPC = -1.08%, t = -4.54, P < 0.001). ③ Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that, with the increase of age, the risk of mechanical injuries among the overall population, male and female in China increased, then decreased, and then increased rapidly. The first small peak was at the age of 45-49 years old in male and 65-69 years old in female. The overall death risk showed an increasing trend with age, with a slowly increasing trend before 75 years old, and a sudden increase after 75 years old. The peak age of death risk was between 90 and 94 years. In terms of period effect, the risk of mechanical injuries showed a gradually increasing trend with time among the overall population, male, and female in China, and the risk of death showed a trend of decreasing first and then rapidly increasing and then decreasing. In terms of cohort effect, the risk of mechanical injuries among the overall population, male, and female in China showed a gradual upward trend with the increase in the birth year, and the risk of death showed an M-shaped trend. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of mechanical injuries showed an increasing trend, and the mortality increased first and then decreased. Although the disease burden has improved, it is still high. More attention needs to be paid to the prevention and control of mechanical injuries, especially in the young population.
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Objective To analyze the secular trends of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in Changning district of Shanghai from 1974 to 2013. Methods We calculated the age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality and the average annual percent changes for pancreatic cancer using Segi's world standard population and the data from Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age-period-cohort model was constructed to further assess the effect of age, diagnosis period and birth cohort on the secular trends of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality. Results During 1974-2013, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 6.49/105 and 6.01/105 in male, 4.83/105 and 4.57/105 in female, respectively. The age-standardized incidence was increased by 0.8% per year in male during past 40 years, while there was no change in mortality. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were increased by 1.6% and 1.3% per year in female. After adjusting the effects of diagnosis period and birth cohort, the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer increased by about 11% every 5 years older in both male and female. Diagnosis period and birth cohort had no statistical impact on the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer. Conclusion The age-standardized incidence of pancreatic cancer shows significantly rising trends during 1974-2013 in both male and female in Changning district of Shanghai, as well as the age-standardized mortality in female. The incidence and mortality rates also increase with age.
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Objective: To analyze the secular trends of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai, 1973-2013. Methods: Using the data from Shanghai Cancer Registry, the crude rates of incidence and mortality, and the age-standardized rates (ASRs) by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were calculated for ovarian cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai, 1973-2013. Joinpoint software was utilized to analyze the secular trends of incidence and mortality, as well as to calculate the annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percent changes (AAPCs). Age-period-cohort model was performed to further investigate the contributions of age, period and cohort effects on the secular trends of incidence and mortality. Results: Total of 936 new incidence cases and 504 deaths in the Changning district of Shanghai were identified during 1973-2013. The crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were 8.72/105, 6.32/105 and 6.00/105, respectively. The crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were 4.70/105, 2.99/105 and 2.92/105, respectively. The crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population of ovarian cancer showed steady rising trends during 1973-2013, by an average of 2.96%, 1.51% and 1.63% per year, respectively. The crude mortality rate increased by an average of 2.53% per year, but the secular trends of age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were not significant (both P > 0.05). Age-period-cohort analysis showed that both the incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer increased with age (both P 0.05). Conclusion: The crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population, and crude mortality rate of ovarian cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai show steady rising trends during 1973-2013. The secular trends of age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population are not significant. Both the incidence and mortality rates increased with age, suggesting the elderly women are key population for the prevention of ovarian cancer. ovarian cancer.
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Introduction: Tobacco products are the major contributors for various cancers and other diseases. In India, tobacco-related cancers (TRCs) contribute nearly half of the total cancers in males and one-fifth in females. Objective: The objective of the study is to investigate 25-year trends and projection of TRCs for 2018�22. Methods: Joinpoint analysis was performed to assess the trends of TRCs on world age-adjusted rates. Age-period-cohort model with power link function was performed to project the future incidence burden of TRCs in urban Delhi. Results: During the 25 years, a total of 67,129 TRCs (53,125 males and 14,004 females) were registered which was 25.4% of total cancer cases registered. Males contributed 39.1% and females 10.8% of total cases. In males, TRCs declined significantly from 1988 to 2003 with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = ?0.91% and thereafter increasing trend was observed with EAPC = 3.42%, while in females, the EAPC values were 2.2% and 3.54% respectively for the same period. The total burden of TRCs will be doubled in 2018�22 with around 46% change due to cancer risk and around 54% due to population age and size in both the genders. The average annual count in males will be 7310 in 2018�22 as compared to 3571 in 2008�12 while in females this count will be increased to 2066 from 955 based on recent slope. Conclusion: The incidence of TRCs is increasing due to increase in population age, size, and factors other than population. TRCs are the preventable cancers, and load of these cancers can be controlled with strictly adhering the policy and acts.
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Objective To analyze the mortality and influencing factors of hepatobiliary cancer patients using the death data of hepatobiliary malignant tumors of Yangpu District, Shanghai, from 1974 to 2015. Methods Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the mortality trend of hepatobiliary cancer. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to evaluate the effects of age and cohort factors on the mortality rate of hepatobiliary cancer. Results From 1974 to 2015, a total of 9 866 liver cancer deaths were reported in Yangpu District, with a male to female ratio of 2.7:1; and the crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate were 23.09/100 000 and 18.87/100 000, respectively. A total of 2 173 biliary tract cancer deaths were reported, with a male to female ratio of 1:1.7; and the crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate were 5.04/100 000 and 3.82/100 000, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer decreased from 1974 to 2015, while that of biliary tract cancer increased. In APC model, the overall mortality risk of liver cancer and biliary tract cancer increased with the increase of age. The mortality rates of liver cancer and biliary tract cancer were increased in the population born before 1930. The mortality rates of the male liver cancer and the male and female biliary tract cancer were decreased in the population born between 1930 and 1949. The mortality rate of liver cancer was increased in the females born after 1949. Conclusion From 1974 to 2015, the mortality rate of liver cancer has a decreasing trend in Yangpu District, Shanghai, and the mortality rate of male is higher than that of female. The mortality rate of biliary tract cancer shows an increasing trend, and the mortality rate of female is higher than that of male. The mortality rates of liver cancer and biliary tract cancer associated with aging factors have increased. Exposure factors have a consistent effect on liver cancer and biliary tract cancer, which may be related to socioeconomic factors at that time.
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Objective@#To describe the 40-years trend for the mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Shanghai and to estimate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort with Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model.@*Methods@#Data on tumor-releated death from 1975 Janurary 1 to 2014 December 31 was derived from the Yangpu District of Shanghai Center for Diseases Prevention and Control tumor registration system. Colonrectal cancer cases (C18.2-C18.9 and C20 in ICD10) were selected for analyses. Crude mortality, age-adjusted mortality, and Average Annual Percent Changes (AAPCs) were calculated for colon cancer and rectal cancer. The difference of AAPCs between male/female and different age groups were tested. An APC model (reference cohort and period were 1900 and 1975, respectively) was constructed to estimate the age-effect, period-effect, and cohort-effect on the colorectal cancer death.@*Results@#During 1975-2014, 6 725 cases died of colorectal cancer (the cased of colon and rectal cancer were 3 684 and 3 041, respectively). The crude mortality and age-adjusted mortality of colon cancer was 8.83/100 000 and 6.76/100 000, respectively. The crude mortality and age-adjusted mortality of rectal cancer were 7.32/100 000 and 5.67/100 000, respectively. For population in Yangpu District, the crude mortality and age-adjusted mortality of colon cancer increased with time, and the crude mortality of rectal cancer increased with time (P<0.001). AAPC of the crude mortality rate (5.6%) and age-adjusted mortality rate (2.3%) of colon cancer were higher than those in rectal cancer (3.0% and -0.3%), respectively (both P values <0.001). AAPC of the crude mortality rate (males vs. females was 6.2% vs. 5.0%, P<0.05) and age-adjusted mortality rate (males vs. females was 2.7% vs. 1.7%, P<0.05) of colon cancer were higher in males than in females. APC model indicted that CRC-related death increased with age. During 1901 to 1941, the RR values of cohort effects for colon and rectal cancer death were 1.09-5.57 and from 1.04-2.28, respectively; During 1946 to 1991, the RR values of cohort effects for colon cancer and rectal cancer were 5.51-4.32 and 2.16-0.89.@*Conclusion@#From 1975 to 2014, the mortality of CRC in Yangpu District increased gradually, and colon cancer mortality in males increased faster than that in females. The risk of death from colorectal cancer in the 1946-1991 birth cohort declined.
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Objective: To explore the long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai from 1973 to 2013. Methods: Using the data of female breast cancer which were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the population data which were obtained from the Changning District Bureau of Public Security, the crude rates and the world population-standardized rates of incidence and mortality of female breast cancer were calculated. Joinpoint analysis was conducted to analyze the trend changes and to estimate the annual percent changes of incidence and mortality rates. Furthermore, the age-period-cohort model was performed to further investigate the effects of age, diagnosis period and birth cohort on the secular trends of breast cancer incidence and mortality. Results: From 1973 to 2013, 5 365 female cases were newly diagnosed with breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai, the crude incidence rate was 49.98/100 000; at the same time, 1 589 female cases were dead of breast cancer, the crude mortality rate was 14.80/100 000. For age-standardized rates, the significant increasing trends of incidence and mortality rates of female breast cancer were observed (both P < 0.05). The annual percent changes of agestandardized incidence and mortality rates were 2.69% and 1.39%. Both the diagnosis period and birth cohort had impacts on the incidence trend of female breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai (both P < 0.01), and the change of mortality trend was almost attributed to the effect of birth cohort (P < 0.01). Conclusion: The incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai from 1973 to 2013 showed an upward trend. So the prevention and treatment of female breast cancer should be strengthened, and the healthy life style should be advocated by the related health department.