Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghai， and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes. MethodsBy analyzing the total mortality rate （TMR）， gross domestic product （GDP） and socio-demographic index （SDI） in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017， a vector autoregressive （VAR） model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate. ResultsThe fitted R2 of the VAR model was 0.92. The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negative， while the long-term effect was positive， and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects. By the tenth year， GDP and SDI contributed 10.61% and 27.25% to TMR changes， respectively. The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030. ConclusionLong-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality. However， as the economy develops vigorously， the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.

Analysis of the impact of setting up plasmapheresis station on the collection volume of voluntary blood donation based on panel vector autoregressive model / 中国输血杂志

【Objective】 To analyze the dynamic relationship between the setting up of plasmapheresis station and the volume of voluntary blood donation collected using panel vector autoregressive model, so as to provide scientific reference for the management policies of blood stations and plasmapheresis stations in China. 【Methods】 The data collected from blood stations in seven administrative regions of Guangyuan, Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2021, as well as plasma collection data from two plasmapheresis stations in the region within two years since their operation, were collected. A panel vector autoregressive model was constructed. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis were used to analyze the impact and time lag effects of simulated plasmapheresis station settings on the collection volume of voluntary blood donation. Covariance analysis was used to explore whether the establishment of plasmapheresis station had an impact on the volume of voluntary blood donation collected after excluding the impact of initial value differences. 【Results】 The pulse response results showed that after the plasmapheresis station was set up, there was a negative impact effect on the voluntary blood donation collection volume at the first stage, and its impact began to rise after the second stage, reached the highest value in the third stage, and then began to decline. After the seventh stage, it tended to be stable. However, within the 10 stage range, the confidence interval for the response strength of voluntary blood donation collection volume always included 0, indicating that the response of blood collection volume to the plasmapheresis station setting in the region was not statistically significant. The results of variance decomposition showed that the contribution of collection volume of voluntary blood donation to their own impact reached 94.3%. In terms of the contribution of plasmapheresis station factors, the number of plasma donors has a relatively greater impact on the volume of voluntary blood donation collected(2.2%). Covariance analysis showed that after removing the initial confounding factors, whether to establish a plasmapheresis station had no significant impact on blood donation volume in the two groups of regions (P>0.05). 【Conclusion】 The establishment of a new plasmapheresis station will have a certain impact on blood collection volume of blood stations in the region in a short term, but in the long term, it may not directly affect the voluntary blood donation collection in the region.

Empirical Research on the Influential Factors of Chinese Crude Drug Price Based on SVAR Model / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE：To explore th e influential factors of the price fluctuation of Chinese crud drug ，and to provide reference for the healthy development of tranditional Chinese medicine industry in China. METHODS ：Based on the relevant statistics from 1992 to 2019，a structural vector autoregressive model was established. After data stationarity test ，cointegration relationship test ，model estimation and stability test ，impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to investigate the impact of supply ，demand，cost of implantation and production and inflation on the price of Chinese crud drug. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS：There was a long-term equilibrium relationship among the price of Chinese crud drug ，planting area of Chinese crud drug ，output of Chinese patent medicine ，market turnover of Chinese crud drug ，export volume of Chinese crud drug ，price index of agricultural means of production and consumer price index. The price of Chinese crud drug had the greatest impact and contribution rate on itself ，followed by planting area of Chinese crud drug ，export volume of Chinese crud drug and price index of agricultural means of production. However ，the output of Chinese patent medicine ，the turnover of Chinese crud drug market and consumer price index had weak influence. It is suggested to make full use of Internet information technology ，strengthen the price monitoring and early warning of Chinese crud drug ，promote the supply side structural reform of tranditional Chinese medicine industry，improve the scientific and technological level of Chinese crud drug planting and promote large-scale production of Chinese herbal medicine so as to stabilize the price of Chinese crud drug.