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Resumo Num cenário epidêmico ainda preocupante, a prevenção da Transmissão Vertical (TV) do HIV impõe problemas complexos, devido as vulnerabilidades individual, social e moral das mulheres vivendo com o vírus, somadas às fragilidades da rede de saúde. A partir de um caso emblemático, este estudo buscou compreender os desafios bioéticos do cuidado para a prevenção da TV do HIV no âmbito do Comitê de Porto Alegre/RS. Os eixos analíticos desenvolvidos refletem sobre como a produção do cuidado se articula, por um lado, com discursos e práticas relacionais pautadas no gênero e interseccionadas por raça e classe social e, por outro, com vulnerabilidades programáticas das políticas de saúde. Vislumbrou-se um processo de extrema estigmatização, em que as poucas ofertas para as mulheres cisgênero se dirigiam à regulação reprodutiva e perpetuavam dinâmicas de violência estrutural. Discute-se caminhos para a construção de um cuidado que incorpore a perspectiva decolonial e busque produzir equidade e justiça social ao reconhecer as trajetórias das mulheres.
Abstract In a still worrying epidemic scenario, the prevention of Vertical Transmission (VT) of HIV poses complex problems, due to the individual, social, and moral vulnerabilities of women living with the virus, in addition to the weaknesses of the health network. Based on an emblematic case, this study sought to understand the bioethical challenges of HIV VT prevention in the scope of the Porto Alegre/RS Committee. The analytical categories developed reflect on how the production of care is articulated, on the one hand, with relational discourses and practices based on gender and intersected by race and social class and, on the other, with programmatic vulnerabilities of health policies. A process of extreme stigmatization was revealed, in which the few offers for cisgender women were aimed toward reproductive regulation and perpetuated dynamics of structural violence. We discuss ways of building care that incorporates a decolonial perspective and seeks to produce equity and social justice by recognizing women's trajectories.
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ABSTRACT Bartonella spp. are bacteria responsible for neglected diseases worldwide. Bartonella henselae is the species most associated with human infections. It is associated with a large spectrum of clinical manifestations and is potentially fatal. The identification of Bartonella spp. is considered a challenge in clinical routine. These bacteria are fastidious, and the time required to isolate them varies from one to six weeks. MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry has emerged as an application for research on Bartonella spp. , and has still been little explored. We investigated whether three different B. henselae strains with different growth times—14 and 28 days—could be correctly identified by MALDI-TOF mass spectra fingerprint comparison and matching. We found that the spectra from strains with different growth times do not match each other, leading to misidentification. We suggest creating database entries with multiple spectra from strains with different growth times to increase the chances of accurate identification of Bartonella spp. by MALD-TOF MS.
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O aborto infectocontagioso em éguas é um tema de grande relevância e interesse para os médicos veterinários e criadores de equinos. Além dos impactos econômicos decorrentes de perdas e redução das taxas reprodutivas, os surtos de abortos causados por doenças infectocontagiosas representam uma ameaça significativa para a saúde equina. Neste trabalho, realizamos uma revisão bibliográfica abrangente sobre as principais doenças que causam abortos infecciosos em éguas. Nosso objetivo é fornecer uma visão geral das patologias mais relevantes nesse contexto, abordando suas características clínicas, epidemiologia, diagnóstico e medidas de controle. Para isso, realizamos uma busca em bancos de dados renomados, como o PubMed e o Scopus, por artigos científicos relevantes publicados nos últimos dez anos. As informações selecionadas foram cuidadosamente analisadas, comparadas e sintetizadas, com o intuito de identificar as principais doenças e suas implicações na saúde reprodutiva das éguas. Esta revisão pretende auxiliar veterinários, pesquisadores e profissionais da área a compreenderem melhor essas doenças e desenvolverem estratégias eficazes de prevenção e controle.(AU)
El aborto infeccioso en yeguas es un tema de gran relevancia e interés para veterinarios y criadores de equinos. Además de las repercusiones económicas derivadas de las pérdidas y la reducción de las tasas reproductivas, los brotes de aborto causados por enfermedades infecciosas representan una importante amenaza para la salud equina. En este artículo, realizamos una revisión exhaustiva de la literatura sobre las principales enfermedades que causan abortos infecciosos en yeguas. Nuestro objetivo es ofrecer una visión general de las patologías más relevantes en este contexto, abordando sus características clínicas, epidemiología, diagnóstico y medidas de control. Para ello, buscamos en bases de datos de renombre como PubMed y Scopus artículos científicos relevantes publicados en los últimos diez años. La información seleccionada fue cuidadosamente analizada, comparada y sintetizada con el fin de identificar las principales enfermedades y sus implicaciones en la salud reproductiva de las yeguas. El objetivo de esta revisión es ayudar a veterinarios, investigadores y profesionales del sector a comprender mejor estas enfermedades y desarrollar estrategias eficaces de prevención y control.(AU)
Infectious abortion in mares is a topic of great relevance and interest for veterinarians and equine breeders. In addition to economic impacts from losses and reduced reproductive rates, abortion outbreaks caused by infectious diseases represent a significant threat to equine health. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive literature review on the major diseases that cause infectious abortions in mares. Our goal is to provide an overview of the most relevant pathologies in this context, addressing their clinical features, epidemiology, diagnosis, and control measures. To this end, we searched renowned databases such as PubMed and Scopus for relevant scientific articles published in the last ten years. The selected information was carefully analyzed, compared and synthesized in order to identify the main diseases and their implications in the reproductive health of mares. This review aims to assist veterinarians, researchers, and professionals in the field to better understand these diseases and develop effective prevention and control strategies.(AU)
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Animales , Femenino , Enfermedades Transmisibles/patología , Aborto Veterinario/diagnóstico , Caballos/embriologíaRESUMEN
Globally, vaccines against 47 infectious etiologic agents are approved by at least one regulatory authority as of December 2022. The numbers of viral diseases, infections caused by mycoplasma, bacterial and protozoal diseases, mycoses, diseases caused by parasitic worms, and other infectious diseases of unknown etiology run into thousands. Therefore, more vaccines are required to be developed to keep more populations disease free. Climate change and global increase in temperature may promote sea level rises and an increase in the intensity of rains, causing an upsurge in certain infectious diseases in regions of the human population and even causing movement of habitats. In societies where the expenditure on health as a percentage of gross domestic product is higher, people are more capacitated to tackle the treatment and spread of infectious diseases. As several of such conditions are zoonotic, well-planned strategies for controlling the spread would go a long way in the proper direction. Poverty and contagious diseases are infallibly linked. Major infectious diseases of poverty include tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/ acquired immuno deficiency syndrome (AIDS), malaria, measles, pneumonia, diarrheal diseases, and several neglected tropical diseases. The world is not yet unified in action to jointly work to contain the global problem of infectious diseases in every human habitat. There was a visible divide between and among the rich countries versus the developing countries regarding accessibility and deployment of vaccines against COVID-19 flu. To contain the spread of infectious diseases in the future, the whole world would have to work together, raising funds, strengthening epidemiological surveys, inventing effective vaccines, and vaccinating the eligible population, as also treating the infected with therapy in time, besides resorting to other preventive measures for overall human progress. The developmental efforts are to be pursued jointly and together to benefit all people, respecting the world as one.
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A novel coronavirus known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China in 2019 and later ignited a global pandemic. Contrary to expectations, the effect of the pandemic was not as devastating to Africa and its young population compared to the rest of the world. To provide insight into the possible reasons for the presumed immune sufficiency to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa, this review critically examines literature published from 2020 onwards on the dynamics of COVID-19 infection and immunity and how other prevalent infectious diseases in Africa might have influenced the outcome of COVID-19. Studies characterising the immune response in patients with COVID-19 show that the correlates of protection in infected individuals are T-cell responses against the SARSCoV-2 spike protein and neutralising titres of immunoglobin G and immunoglobin A antibodies. In some other studies, substantial pre-existing T-cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 was detected in many people from diverse geographical locations without a history of exposure. Certain studies also suggest that innate immune memory, which offers protection against reinfection with the same or another pathogen, might influence the severity of COVID-19. In addition, an initial analysis of epidemiological data showed that COVID-19 cases were not severe in some countries that implemented universal Bacillus CalmetteGuerin (BCG) vaccination policies, thus supporting the potential of BCG vaccination to boost innate immunity. The high burden of infectious diseases and the extensive vaccination campaigns previously conducted in Africa could have induced specific and non-specific protective immunity to infectious pathogens in Africans.
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Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Vacunación , Coronavirus , Factores Protectores , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19 , Linfocitos T , Enfermedades Transmisibles , Pandemias , InmunidadRESUMEN
Introduction: approximately 15% of COVID-19 patients develop symptoms necessitating admission. From 2020 to 2022, Mashonaland West Province had an institutional case fatality rate of 23% against a national rate of 7%. Therefore, we evaluated the COVID-19 admissions in the province to determine the factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Methods: we conducted an analytical cross-sectional study based on secondary data from isolation centers across the province using all 672 death audit forms and patient records. We obtained data on patient demographics, signs and symptoms, clinical management and oxygen therapy administered, among other things. Data were entered into an electronic form and imported into Epi-info 7 for analysis bivariate and multivariate was conducted. Results: we found that being an older man, aOR 1.04 (1.03-1.05), who had diabetes aOR 6.0 (95% CI: 3.8-9.2) and hypertension aOR 4.5 (95% CI: 2.8-6.5) were independent risk factors. Patients put on dexamethasone aOR 2.4 (95% CI: 1.6-3.4) and heparin/clexane aOR 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.2) had a higher mortality risk. However, vitamin C aOR 0.48 (95% CI: 0.31-0.71) and oxygen therapy aOR 0.14 (95% CI: 0.10-0.19) and being pregnant aOR 0.06 (95% CI: 0.02-0.14) were protective. Conclusion: mortality risk increased in older male patients with comorbidities and with those on dexamethasone and heparin therapy. Oxygen therapy and vitamin C were protective. There is a need to conduct further study of the source of these variations in risk across patients to establish the true impact of differences in individuals' mortality.
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Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Admisión del Paciente , Terapéutica , Diagnóstico , COVID-19 , Factores de Riesgo , MortalidadRESUMEN
Surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases is the important contents of disease prevention and control in China.This paper reviews the present situation of the surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases in China , and emphatically expounds the practice of constructing the regional surveillance and early warning system in Hubei province, and put forward targeted thinking suggestions ,in order to provide reference for the construction, research and practice of infectious disease surveillance and early warning in our province and the whole country.
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Objective:To construct a social loss indicator system based on the perspective of epidemic prevention and control against background of emerging major infectious diseases at the national, hospital, and individual levels, and to provide decision-making basis for public general hospitals to formulate prevention and control strategies for emerging major infectious diseases.Methods:Literatures published before December 23, 2020 were retrieved from CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, Web of Science, Google Scholar with such keywords as " infectious diseases" " public health emergencies" " social losses" " COVID-19" " evaluation". Then a preliminary social loss indicator system of public general hospitals for emerging major infectious diseases was constructed from such dimensions as country, hospital, and individual, by implementing literature analysis and expert consultation. Based on such a preliminary system, three questionnaires were designed for the country, hospitals, and individuals and the corresponding data were collected from December 25, 2021 to May 20, 2022. In the end, a factor analysis was made on the questionnaire data to optimize the social loss indicator system and determine the weights of each indicator.Results:The social loss indicator system consists of 14 level-1 indicators and 60 level-2 indicators. Level-1 indicators at country aspect consisted of government governance capacity, direct economic losses, social security, online public opinion, indirect economic losses, and international cooperation; indicators at hospital aspect consisted of hospital manpower, material resources, and information resources, hospital services, and hospital operations; indicators at the individual aspect consisted of physical health, psychological and social health, and external environment. Level-1 indicators of the highest weight at all aspects were social security, manpower, material and information resources, as well as physiological health. And the level-2 indicators of the highest weight were high medical expenses, overwork for staff other than doctors and nurses and medical insurance.Conclusions:The social loss indicator system for emerging major infectious diseases constructed in this study proves scientific and reasonable, helpful for the formulation of prevention and control strategies of public general hospitals.
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Objective:To evaluate the clinical significance of commonly used clinical inflammatory indicators in children with infectious diseases.Methods:A total of 354 children diagnosed with infectious diseases in our hospital from December 2018 to October 2020 were selected and divided into viral infection group(83 cases), sepsis group (65 cases), atypical pathogen infection group(23 cases), fungal infection group (11 cases), and bacterial infection group(172 cases). The data of serum amyloid A(SAA), procalcitonin(PCT), C-reactive protein(CRP), SAA/CRP, and interleukin (IL) in each group were collected.The fever peak, duration of fever, and fever subsidence time after admission were recorded.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted, and the area under the curve(AUC), cut-off value, sensitivity and specificity were recorded.The correlation between fever and inflammatory indicators was analyzed.Results:The duration of fever in the atypical pathogen infection group was significantly higher than that in the other groups.Compared with the sepsis group, the differences regarding the levels of SAA, CRP, PCT, and IL-6 were statistically significant compared with those in the bacterial infection group, the atypical pathogen infection group, and the viral infection group (all P<0.05). SAA/CRP was the highest in the viral infection group, and its mean value was nearly twice compared with that in the sepsis group ( P<0.05). IL-10 was significantly different between bacterial infection group and viral infection group( P<0.05). Compared with the fungal infection group, the difference of interferon-γ was statistically significant compared with that in the bacterial infection group, viral infection group and sepsis group (all P<0.05). The ROC curves suggested that the AUC of SAA/CRP and IL-10 was the largest and the same in the viral infection group.The AUC of PCT in the sepsis group was the largest of 0.877, and the specificity was the highest at 91.7% when the PCT was 1.055 ng/mL.Correlation analysis found that SAA and CRP detected for the first time at admission were positively correlated with the time to heat remission. Conclusion:SAA/CRP has significant significance in differentiating sepsis and virus infection, and significantly increased PCT is an important sign of sepsis.
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Objective:To construct a scientific and feasible index system for nurses′ ability to cope with new infectious diseases based on ability-based education theory, so as to provide reference for the training of nurses′ ability to cope with new infectious diseases.Methods:After consulting domestic and foreign literaturesuch as China National Knowledge Internet, Wanfang, VIP, PubMed, Web of Science, etc. from the establishment of the database to October 2020, based on the theory of "ability-based education", taking the action framework of the theory of "life cycle of emergency" and "sudden infectious disease events proposed" by WHO as the structural framework, the index items were preliminarily constructed, and the Delphi expert consultation method was used to conduct two rounds of expert consultation for 15 experts, so as to finally establish the index system of nurses′ ability to cope with new infectious diseases.Results:The effective recovery rate of the two rounds of expert consultation questionnaires was 100.00%, and the authority coefficient was 0.930. Kendall′s concordance coefficients of two rounds of consultation experts in the tertiary indicators were 0.363, 0.304 and 0.269, respectively, with statistically significant differences (all P<0.01), and the coefficient of variation of each index was 0.000-0.167. The index system of nurses′ ability to cope with new infectious diseases included 3 primary indicators, 12 secondary indicators and 44 tertiary indicators. Conclusions:The index system of nurses′ ability to cope with new infectious diseases based on ability-based education theory is scientific, reliable and practical, which can provide reference for the training and assessment of new infectious diseases coping ability of nurses.
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Objective:To summarize the application and effect of "Trinity" emergency chain in the management of patients with epidemic respiratory tract infection under the cooperation of multiple hospitals and districts, and to provide a reference for medical institutions to improve the risk response ability.Methods:Based on the collaborative management of multi-branches, the "Trinity" emergency chain of pre-hospital-emergency-critical care, identification-triage-treatment, expansion-training-dispatch was implemented to optimize and integrate medical resources.Results:During the two months, 43,000 patients were admitted to the fever clinic, with an increase of 36.08%. The average waiting time for treatment was 19.83 min, and the average admission time to ICU was 25.35 min.Conclusions:The "Trinity" emergency chain treatment scheme under the coordination of multi-branches can effectively deal with the public health events of respiratory tract infectious diseases, improve the efficiency of rescue and treatment, and enhance the risk response ability of medical institutions.
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Objective To sort out the scientific research achievements in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China from 2001 to 2022, and analyze the research hotspots and trends in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China in recent 20 years, so as to provide reference for relevant policies and exploration directions. Methods Relevant literature retrieved from CNKI Chinese database was used as the data source, and Excel 2019 and Citespace 6.1.R2 software were used for visual analysis of research hotspots and frontier literature. Results A total of 1276 papers meeting requirements were obtained, and most of the research groups were relatively small and had little cooperation with others. The types of research institutions were relatively single, and most of them were domestic universities. “Infectious diseases”, “early warning” and “prediction” were the most frequently used keywords. Research on big data and COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control is the current research frontier. Conclusion There is little cooperation among authors and between institutions in the field of early warning of infectious diseases in China. Using big data to early warning of infectious diseases and improving the ability of early warning of COVID-19 are the main research directions and trends at present.
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ObjectiveTo determine the influence of COVID-19 prevention and control on the epidemic characteristics and dynamics of notifiable infectious diseases in the first quarters， Zhejiang Province， and to explore more effective countermeasures against infectious diseases. MethodsDescriptive epidemiology was conducted to determine the change in notifiable infectious diseases during the prevention and control of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province by retrieving the data of notifiable infectious diseases from 2017 to 2022 in the Chinese information system for disease control and prevention. Cumulative reported new cases of notifiable infectious diseases in the first quarters of 2017‒2019 were compared with that of 2020‒2022. ResultsA total of 546 753 cases of notifiable infectious diseases were newly reported in the first quarters of 2017‒2019， with an average incidence of 321.92/105. In contrast， a total of 509 908 cases of notifiable infectious diseases were newly reported in the first quarters of 2020‒2022， during which the COVID-19 epidemic occurred， with an average incidence of 270.39/105. The incidence in 2020‒2022 significantly declined by 51.53/105， compared with that in 2017‒2019 （χ²=8 072.06， P<0.001）. In the first quarters of 2020‒2022， the average incidence of zoonotic diseases and vector-borne diseases decreased by more than 50%. In addition， the incidence of respiratory， enteric， blood-borne， and sexually transmitted diseases declined to certain degree. ConclusionThe decline in the newly reported cases of non-COVID-19 notifiable infectious diseases in the first quarters of 2020‒2022 indicates that the countermeasures against COVID-19 epidemic， such as multi-disease co-prevention， multi-sectoral collaboration， societal mobilization and personal hygiene and protection， may also decrease the incidence of multiple infectious diseases. It suggests the countermeasures are effective， which would provide evidence for routine prevention and control of infectious diseases in future.
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Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines emerge as promising vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. Compared with traditional vaccines, mRNA vaccines present numerous advantages, such as high potency, safe administration, rapid production potentials, and cost-effective manufacturing. In 2020, two COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) were approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The two vaccines showed high efficiency in combating COVID-19, which indicates the great advantages of mRNA technology in developing vaccines against emergent infectious diseases. Here, we summarize the type, immune mechanisms, modification methods of mRNA vaccines, and their applications in preventing infectious diseases. Current challenges and future perspectives in developing mRNA vaccines are also discussed.
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Humanos , Estados Unidos , Vacunas de ARNm , Vacuna BNT162 , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/genética , Enfermedades Transmisibles , ARN Mensajero/genéticaRESUMEN
@#The mass movement of migrants to Malaysia for employment is one of the factors contributing to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases in this country. Despite mandatory health screening for migrants seeking employment, prevalence records of infectious diseases amongst migrant populations in Malaysia are still within negligible proportions. Therefore, the present review highlights the incidence, mortality and overall status of infectious diseases amongst migrants’ populations in Malaysia, which maybe be useful for impeding exacerbation of inequalities among them and improving our national health system thru robust and effective emergency responses in controlling the prevalent diseases found among these populations and maybe, Malaysian citizens too. Peer-reviewed articles from January 2016 to December 2020 were searched through online platform including SCOPUS, PubMed, Science Direct, and Google Scholar. Non-peer-reviewed reports and publications from ministry and government websites including data from related agencies were also scoured from in order to ensure that there are no cases being overlooked, as most published articles did not have migrants as the research subjects. A total of 29 studies had been selected in the final analysis. Migrants in Malaysia were at higher risk for tuberculosis, malaria, lymphatic filariasis, cholera, leprosy and leptospirosis. Lymphatic filariasis was still endemic among this population while thousand cases of TB and cholera had been reported among them due to cramp living conditions and poor sanitation in their settlements respectively. While malaria had gradually decreased and become sporadic, the influx of migrant workers had led to the rising of imported malaria cases. Low cases of leprosy had been recorded in Malaysia but a significant proportion of it was contributed by migrant workers. As for leptospirosis, studies found that there are prominent cases among migrant workers, which particularly highest within workers with lower educational attainment. Infectious diseases are still prevalent among migrants in Malaysia due to various interplay factors including their working sectors, country of origin, immunization status, type of settlement, impoverished living conditions, and language and cultural barriers that impeding access to health facilities.
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Major infectious diseases have the characteristics of sudden, group and harmfulness. Isolation is widely used in the field of infectious disease prevention and control as an emergency management tool to control the source of infection and protect susceptible populations in emergencies. However, while it has achieved good results, there are also objective ethical disputes between personal freedom and public health, personal privacy and public knowledge. This paper fully discusses the ethical problems exposed in the implementation stage of isolation, follows the ethical principles of minimum infringement, utility and respect, and puts forward suggestions to strengthen the ethical decision-making ability of grassroots personnel, improve the operation procedures of isolation, and give more humanistic care to the isolated population. On the premise of the unity of public interest and individual rights and interests, we hope to promote the benign interaction between individuals and the public, properly solve the practical problems existing in the disposal of major infectious diseases, and give full play to the optimal function of public policy objectives.
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The crime of impairing the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases was "activated" in the COVID-19 epidemic that broke out in early 2020. However, the scope of infectious diseases involved in the relevant crimes of the Criminal Law of the People’s Republic of China before the revision was only limited to Category A infectious diseases, and the scope of application should be expanded when used for infectious diseases such as COVID-19. The revised Criminal Law "expands" the scope of infectious diseases involved in the crime from Category A to Category B controlled according to Category A, providing a legal basis for related cases, while the expressions in the new laws are repeated and ambiguous. Whether the criminal subject causes others to be infected is closely related to the sentencing of the crime, but it is still impossible to draw an exclusive conclusion on the causality leading to infection at the technical level. In summary, this paper proposed to correct the cases of inappropriate expansion of the application scope before the amendment of the Criminal Law, revise the improper expression of the new laws while cleaning up the relevant normative documents, clarify the unidentifiable part in the causal relationship of relevant cases and consider it in sentencing process.
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Ethical dilemmas commonly exist among nurses during the epidemic prevention and control of major infectious diseases, which can affect their physical and mental health and nursing quality. This paper reviewed the ethical dilemmas of nurses in the epidemic prevention and control of major infectious diseases from four aspects, including concepts, current situation, evaluation tools, and influencing factors, with a view to raising the attention of nurses, nursing administrators, and health management organizations to the ethical dilemmas of nurses in the epidemic prevention and control of major infectious diseases, and providing theoretical references for further formulating strategies. In terms of ethical dilemmas research of nurses during the prevention and control of major infectious diseases, domestic and foreign studies mostly used scales and qualitative interviews to investigate. Research has found that the ethical dilemmas of nurses during the period include the ethical dilemma of visiting restrictions, the ethical dilemma of fair allocation of scarce resources, and the ethical dilemma of nurses’ rights and obligations. The main influencing factors include demographic factors, psychological factors, risk perception, and social support. It is recommended to develop suitable assessment tools from the perspective of ethical in the future, timely grasp the current situation of ethical dilemmas of nurses during the prevention and control of major infectious diseases, and deeply explore influencing factors.
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Major infectious disease epidemic continues to pose a threat to human health and society, and the effective establishment and implementation of an early warning system plays a key role in addressing public health security risks. At present, the research on early warning of infectious diseases in the academic community mainly focuses on early warning information system, early warning mechanism, laws and regulations of early warning of infectious diseases, and some studies lack specific suggestions on operation methods. By collating and summarizing the literature from 2002 to 2022, regarding the early warning system and mechanism of major infectious diseases, this paper focused on analyzing the public health ethical dilemmas existing in the early warning process and discussing how to strengthen the construction of the early warning system of infectious diseases, so as to lay the foundation for creating more scientific early warning schemes of infectious diseases.
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@#Abstract：Objective To evaluate the basic development status of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022, analyze the distribution and characteristics of these emergencies, as to provide important scientific basis for the study and formulation of economic health development planning policies, for the health security policies and infectious disease prevention and control strategies in Hainan Province. Methods The relevant statistical data of public health emergencies involving infectious diseases reported in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022 were collected, and the status quo of these emergencies was analyzed by using descriptive data statistical analysis method. The ARIMA model was used to predict the number of public health emergencies reported by infectious diseases in Hainan Province from 2023 to 2025. Results From 2013 to 2022, a total of 482 public health emergencies were reported in Hainan Province, of which 426 were infectious disease public health emergencies, accounting for 88.38%, with a total of 8 876 cases, an incidence rate of 0.61%, and eight deaths, a case fatality rate of 0.09%. The major public health emergencies of infectious diseases were unclassified events and general events, accounting for 69.25% and 29.58%, respectively. The main diseases were novel coronavirus infection, chickenpox and hand, foot and mouth disease, accounting for 45.07%, 15.49% and 11.97%, respectively; in terms of time distribution, the number of reported incidents showed an upward trend over time, with a decline in 2021, and mainly had three peak periods, April, August and December, with a total of 220 cases reported; in terms of regional distribution, the major cities and counties reported were Haikou, Wanning and Wenchang, accounting for 27.46%, 19.25% and 9.86%, respectively; in terms of location distribution, the events mainly occurred in schools, accounting for 42.02% of the total number of incidents. The ARIMA(1, 1, 0) model was used to predict infectious disease public health emergencies, and the results showed that the forecast state would be stable from 2023 to 2025, with no obvious upward trend, that is, the fluctuation range of public health emergencies related to infectious diseases in Hainan Province would be stable in the next three years. Conclusion The number of infectious disease public health emergencies reported in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022 has increased year by year, with a decline in 2021. Although the forecast shows that public health emergencies such as infectious diseases are relatively stable with no obvious upward trend, the prevention and control of the epidemic should not be taken lightly. Hainan Province should continue to increase the investment in monitoring public health emergencies, improve the information system of public disease prevention and control, and carry out real-time monitoring of public health emergencies of infectious diseases.