RESUMEN
Objective: To predict the growth trend of total health expenditure in China based on the dynamic relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth. Methods: First, analyze the relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth from 1978 to 2011 with the state space model, evaluate the accuracy of the model and predict total health expenditure range from 2012 to 2016 with the status space mode. Results: Up to 2016, the total health expenditure would reach to 5.681 trillion yuan, and the ratio of the expenditure to gross domestic product(GDP) would increase to 5.692%. Conclusion: It is needed to balance the relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth.
RESUMEN
To investigate different effects of fiscal health expenditure, household spending on health and social health expenditure on narrowing the gap between urban and rural health resource allocation. Methods: With the relevant data of China’ s medical and health through 1985-2011 years, taking methodology of the state space model to estimate the varying-time elasticity of different types of expenditures on urban and rural health resource allocation gap. Results: For narrowing the gap, household health expenditure played the leading role, fiscal health expenditure played smaller role and the social health expenditure played the supplementary role; the elastic of different health expenditure proportion was fluctuated before 2002, which became stable after 2002; it is easy to improve the “hard conditions” rather than the “soft conditions” . Conclusion: To accelerate the process of urban and rural medical security system integration, it is inevitable to establish an efficient configuration mechanism for urban and rural health expense, balanced develop urban and rural medical insurance system and scientifically guide social health investment.