An interpretable machine learning-based prediction model for risk of death for patients with ischemic stroke in intensive care unit / 南方医科大学学报

OBJECTIVE@#To construct an inherent interpretability machine learning model as an explainable boosting machine model (EBM) for predicting one-year risk of death in patients with severe ischemic stroke.@*METHODS@#We randomly divided the data of 2369 eligible patients with severe ischemic stroke in the MIMIC-Ⅳ(2.0) database, who were admitted in ICU in 2008 to 2019, into a training dataset (80%) and a test dataset (20%), and assessed the prognosis of the patients using the EBM model. The prediction performance of the model was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve. The calibration curve and Brier score were used to evaluate the degree of calibration of the model, and a decision curve was generated to assess the net clinical benefit.@*RESULTS@#The EBM model constructed in this study had good discrimination power, calibration and net benefit, with an AUC of 0.857 (95% CI: 0.831-0.887) for predicting prognosis of severe ischemic stroke. Calibration curve analysis showed that the standard curve of the EBM model was the closest to the ideal curve. Decision curve analysis showed that the model had the greatest net benefit rate at the prediction probability threshold of 0.10 to 0.80. The top 5 independent predictive variables based on the EBM model were age, SOFA score, mean heart rate, mechanical ventilation, and mean respiratory rate, whose significance scores ranged from 0.179 to 0.370.@*CONCLUSION@#This EBM model has a good performance for predicting the risk of death within one year in patients with severe ischemic stroke and allows clinicians to better understand the contributing factors of the patients' outcomes through the model interpretability.

Effects of intravascular hypothermia combined with early post-pyloric feeding on neurological function and prognosis in patients with first severe ischemic stroke / 中国实用护理杂志

Objective:To investigate the effects of intravascular hypothermia combined with early post-pyloric feeding on the neurological function and prognosis in patients with severe ischemic stroke, and to provide a theoretical basis for clinical decision-making on the optimal nutritional support strategy for patients with severe ischemic stroke during intravascular hypothermia treatment.Methods:This was a retrospective, non-randomized, controlled study. A total of 78 patients with first severe ischemic stroke who were admitted to the ICU of Neurology Department, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 2018 to December 2021 were selected. General information and clinical data of the patients were collected and grouped according to intrvascular hypothermia combined with nutritional support. Patients were divided into early post-pyloric feeding group of 52 cases and early parenteral nutrition group of 26 cases. The neurological prognosis, disease prognosis, nutritional status and complications related to nutritional support of the two groups were retrospectively analyzed.Results:The Glasgow score at 30th day after intravascular hypothermia in the early postpyloric feeding group was (11.25 ± 4.92) points, which was higher than that in the early parenteral nutrition group (8.40 ± 5.53), and the difference was statistically significant ( t=-2.45, P<0.05). After treatment, the serum total protein and hemoglobin of early postpyloric feeding group were (59.56 ± 5.09) g/L and (131.06 ± 19.58) g/L, respectively, which were higher than those of early parenteral nutrition group (56.52 ± 7.94) g/L and (122.07 ± 17.72) g/L. The difference was statistically significant ( t=-2.03, -1.91, P<0.05). The clinical pulmonary infection score of the early postpyloric feeding group was (7.33 ± 0.96) points, which was lower than that of the early parenteral nutrition group (9.42 ± 2.11). The mechanical ventilation time and ICU stay time were (17.46 ± 10.47) days and (28.89 ± 12.59) days, respectively. Compared with the early parenteral nutrition group (25.77 ± 15.20) days and (37.07 ± 17.15) days, the differences were statistically significant ( t=3.28, 2.83, 2.52, all P<0.05). There were no significant differences in catheter-associated bloodstream infection and ICU hospitalization mortality between the two groups (both P>0.05). Conclusions:Intravascular hypothermia combined with early post-pyloric feeding can improve the nutritional status of patients with severe ischemic stroke, effectively control pulmonary infection, shorten mechanical ventilation and hospital stay, and promote neurological repair.

Effects of Alprostadil Dried Emulsion for Injection Combined with Butylphthalide Soft Capsules on Nerve Function,Inflammatory Factor and Coagulation Function of Patients with Severe Ischemic Stroke / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE:To observe the effects of Alprostadil dried emulsion for injection combined with Butylphthalide soft capsules on nerve function,inflammatory factor and coagulation function of patients with severe ischemic stroke. METHODS:A total of 66 patients with severe ischemic stroke selected from our hospital during Jun. 2015-Oct. 2017 were divided into control group and observation group according to random number table,with 33 cases in each group. On the basis of routine treatment, control group was additionally given Butyphthalide soft capsules 0.2 g/time,orally at fasting state,tid. On the basis of control group,observation group was additionally given Alprostadil dried emulsion for injection 10 μg added into 0.9% Sodium chloride injection 10 mL,via slow infusion or slow dripping with pipkin,qd. Both groups were treated for 14 days. NIHSS and Barthel index scores,the levels of serum inflammatory factors(CRP,PCT)and coagulation function indexes(D-D,TT,PT,APTT, FIB)were observed in 2 groups before and after treatment,and the occurrence of ADR was also recorded. RESULTS:Before treatment,there was no statistical significance in above indexes between 2 groups(P>0.05).After treatment,NIHSS scores,the levels of CRP,PCT,D-D and FIB in 2 groups were deceased significantly,while Barthel index scores were increased significantly,TT,PT,APTT were prolonged significantly;observation group was significantly better than control group,with statistical significance(P<0.05). No obvious ADR was found in 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS:Alprostadil dried emulsion for injection combined with Butylphthalide soft capsules can effectively improve nerve function and coagulation function of patients with severe ischemic stroke,and reduce the levels of inflammatory factor with good safety.