RESUMO
Objective To analyze the data of prostate cancer in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019, understand the characteristics and trends of incidence, mortality, and YLL, and provide decision-making basis for Wuhan's cancer prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on deaths and incident cases of prostate cancer in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019 and from 2013 to 2017, respectively, were collected from the Wuhan Death Monitoring System. Indicators such as incidence rate, mortality rate, and years of life lost due to premature death (YLL) of prostate cancer in Wuhan were calculated using Excel 2016 and Python. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model (BAPC) was used to predict the mortality rate of prostate cancer in Wuhan from 2020 to 2024. The trend changes were described using the annual average percentage change (AAPC). Results From 2010 to 2019, the incidence, mortality, and YLL rates of prostate cancer in Wuhan showed an overall increasing trend (AAPC >0, P <0.05). The standardized mortality and incidence rates in the central urban area were significantly higher than those in the outer urban area, and the age group of 85 and above had the highest incidence and mortality rates. The age group of 0-54 had the largest increase in incidence and mortality rates. From 2020 to 2024, prostate cancer in Wuhan is expected to continue to increase slightly (an increase of 0.94%). Conclusion The incidence, mortality, and YLL rates of prostate cancer in Wuhan are showing an overall increasing trend, and this trend may continue. The characteristics are higher in the central urban area than in the outer urban area, and higher in the older age group than in the younger age group. Targeted measures need to be taken, and screening for high-risk populations should be strengthened.
RESUMO
Objective To assess the prevalence of female breast cancer in the city using data from the Wuhan Disease and Cause of Death Surveillance System for the past 10 years to provide a reference for breast cancer prevention and control. Methods The incidence case data from 2013 to 2017 and death case data from 2010 to 2019 in all districts of Wuhan city were collected. The incidence and mortality and their age-standardized rates were calculated. The joinpoint linear regression model was used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) , and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model (BAPC) was used to predict the mortality and age-standardized mortality of breast cancer among women in Wuhan from 2020 to 2024. Results The incidence and age-standardized incidence were 56.56/100 000 and 45.37/100 000 in 2013, and 67.46/100 000 and 52.01/100 000 in 2017, respectively. The changes showed an upward trend, but the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The mortality and age-standardized mortality were 9.80/100 000 and 8.07/100 000 in 2010, and 10.47/100 000 and 7.13/100 000 in 2019, respectively. Although the rough mortality increased, the age-standardization mortality declined significantly (AAPC=2.13%, P<0.05). BAPC prediction results show that the standardized mortality rate of female breast cancer in Wuhan will drop to 6.33/100 000 in 2024. The peak age of incidence was in the age groups of 45-74 years and the peak age of mortality was in the age group of 85 years or older. In addition , the morbidity and mortality rates in the central urban area were higher than those in the distant urban area , and the difference decreased year by year. The BAPC predicted that the age-standardized mortality for breast cancer in women in Wuhan will decrease to 6.33 per 100 000 in 2024. Conclusion Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in females in Wuhan show an increasing trend . However , the age-standardized mortality is on a significant downward trend due to the delay in the age of death. The elderly and those in central urban areas are the high-risk groups, so we should pay more attention to these groups , analyze the related risk factors , and take targeted prevention and control measures.