RESUMO
PURPOSE: This research used mathematical modeling to project the supply and demand of emergency physicians over the next decade in Korea. METHODS: A model was used to project the annual emergency physicians (EP) workforce supply and demand through the year 2015. The mathematical equations used were as follows: Supply = number of emergency physicians at the beginning of the year plus annual residency graduates minus annual attrition; Demand formula I = 5.29 fulltime equivalent positions/emergency department (ED) x the number of hospital EDs, Demand formula II = annual ED visits/(4,700visits/EP/year), Demand formula III = (11 to 16 EP per major referral ED) + (6 to 8 EP per urban district/ regional hospital ED). RESULTS: While the most conservative demand projection was 1,505 EPs in the year 2015, the most aggressive supply estimate with a yearly supply of 120 new EPs and a 1% attrition rate was 1,362 EPs in that year. CONCLUSIONS: In Korea, emergency physicians will remain in short supply for the next ten years, even at the present levels of EM residency output.