Trend analysis of chronic kidney disease incidence and mortality in Chinese population based on age-period-cohort model / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To investigate the changing trend and epidemiological characteristics of the incidence and mortality of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with age, period and birth cohort in Chinese population. Methods Based on the data of incidence and mortality of CKD in Chinese population aged 20-80 years from 1990 to 2019 in GHDx database, joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence and mortality trend of CKD. An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of CKD incidence and mortality. Results Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the standardized incidence rate of chronic kidney disease in Chinese population increased from 146.37/100 000 in 1990 to 161.52/100 000 in 2019, while the standardized mortality rate decreased from 12.98/100 000 in 1990 to 11.23/100 000 in 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the risk of CKD incidence and death in the Chinese population increased with age, while the risk of CKD incidence increased with the increase of period. The risk of death did not change significantly with the increase of period. The cohort born later had a lower risk of CKD incidence and death compared to the cohort born earlier. Conclusion At present, the age effect and period effect of the incidence and death risk of chronic kidney disease in China are dominant. It is important to take effective measures and intervene in a timely manner, especially to strengthen the protection of older high-risk groups born earlier.

Trend and gender difference of mortality rate of senile dementia： based on the method of annual percent change / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo investigate the characteristics of gender difference and the trend of the mortality rate of senile dementia in registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018， and to provide the basis for formulating relative intervention measures before and after senile dementia from an public-health view. MethodsBased on the collected data of death registration， focused on the senile dementia disease codes F03，G30.0，G30.1，G30.8，G30.9 according to The International Classification of Diseases 10th revision （ICD-10）. We analyzed the characteristics of gender difference in the mortality rate of senile dementia in registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018. According to ASR， we calculated the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia， and used the chi-square test to compare the difference between the gender mortality rates. The trend and the turning point of the mortality rate of senile dementia were determined by linear regression analysis by Join-point. ResultsThe crude mortality rate of senile dementia in the registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018 was 5.46/105， 3.50/105 in males and 7.43/105 in females. The standardized mortality rate of senile dementia was 2.61/105， 1.67/105 in males and 3.56/105 in females. The trend of the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia in 17 years decreased ［APC=-5.5（-6.5，-4.5）%，P<0.01］. The trend of the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia decreased in both males ［APC=-4.9（-6.2，-3.6）%，P<0.01］ and females ［APC=-5.9（-6.9，-4.9）%，P<0.01］. The trend of the gender difference decreased ［APC=-6.8（-8.2，-5.3）%，P<0.01］. The mortality rate of senile dementia was higher in females than in males ［（χ2=33.63，P<0.01）］. ConclusionThe mortality rate of senile dementia in females is higher than in males in Shanghai， though the trend of the gender difference decreased. This gender difference is worth of attention.

APC model analysis of lung cancer death trend in residents of Macheng City, Hubei Province, 1984-2018 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To study the trends of lung cancer mortality among adult residents in Macheng City, Hubei Province from 1984 to 2018． Methods Mortality data was extracted from Macheng City disease surveillance points (DSPs) system and China Demographic Yearbook. The age-period-cohort (APC) model and Intrinsic Estimator algorithm were used to estimate the age effect, period effect and cohort effect of lung cancer mortality. Results The age effect coefficient of lung cancer mortality increased with age from 20 to 74 years old. The mortality risk of the 70-74 group was 42.62 times that of the 20-24 group. The period effect coefficient of lung cancer mortality also continued to rise with time. The cohort effect coefficient was parabolic, and residents born in 1939-1943 had the highest coefficient (1.298 4). Conclusion The risk of lung cancer death of adult residents in Macheng City significantly increased with the year and the rapid development of socio-economics.