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ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016‒2022， and to provide a theoretical basis for improving liver cancer prevention and treatment strategies in Luzhou. MethodsData on liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016 to 2022 were collected， and the incidence rate， age-specific incidence rate， and annual percentage change （APC） were calculated. A Joinpoint regression model was used to fit a time series segment to the monthly number of new cases in each district and county of Luzhou to explore the trend of liver cancer incidence rate. ResultsThe incidence rate of liver cancer in Luzhou increased from 22.96/105 in 2016 to 32.31/105 in 2022. The incidence rate of liver cancer in men was higher than that in women in both 2016 and 2022， and the incidence rate of liver cancer in men increased from 34.83/105 in 2016 to 47.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.3%； the incidence rate of liver cancer in women increased from 10.50/105 in 2016 to 15.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.0%， and the differences in the change trends were not statistically significant （P>0.05）.The incidence of liver cancer was low in the age group of 0‒<40 years from 2016 to 2022 and increased with age； the incidence of liver cancer in the age group of 55 years and above was increasing at an average annual rate of 16.4%. ConclusionThe overall incidence of liver cancer in Luzhou is on the rise， and the incidence of liver cancer in men is higher than that in women. Middle-aged and elderly men are the key population for liver cancer prevention and treatment， and liver cancer prevention and treatment should be carried out in a targeted manner， taking into account regional development differences.
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Objective To investigate the tendency of viral hepatitis in Changning District, Shanghai, and to provide scientific evidence for decision-making of prevention and control. Methods Cases of viral hepatitis in Changning District from 2009-2019 were collected , and the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. Joinpoint regression analysis were used to estimate the annual percent change and average annual percent change, and to perform the trend test. Results Among the 2009-2019 in Changning District, a total of 3 397 cases of viral hepatitis were reported , the annual average incidence rate was 49.32/100 000. Results from Joinpoint trend analysis indicated that the incidence of viral hepatitis in Changning District was mainly due to hepatitis A and hepatitis B. Conclusions Although the annual incidence rate of viral hepatitis in Changning District is far below the incidence rate of viral hepatitis in China, but it still shows an increasing trend. This shows that the situation of prevention and control of viral hepatitis in Changning is still serious, and hepatitis B remains the key point of prevention of viral hepatitis in Shanghai.
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OBJECTIVE@#To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years.@*METHODS@#Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System (TBIMS) from 2005 to 2020, we calculated the annual percentage change (APC) using the Joinpoint regression model.@*RESULTS@#From 2005 to 2020, a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China, with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 population. The age standardization rate (ASR) continued to decline from 116.9 (/100,000) in 2005 to 47.6 (/100,000) in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 5.6% [APC = -5.6, 95% confidence interval ( CI): -7.0 to -4.2]. The smallest decline occurred in 2011-2018 (APC = -3.4, 95% CI: -4.6 to -2.3) and the largest decrease in 2018-2020 (APC = -9.2, 95% CI: -16.4 to -1.3). From 2005 to 2020, the ASR in males (159.8 per 100,000 in 2005, 72.0 per 100,000 in 2020) was higher than that in females (62.2 per 100,000 in 2005, 32.3 per 100,000 in 2020), with an average annual decline of 6.0% for male and 4.9% for female. The average notified incidence was the highest among older adults (65 years and over) (182.3/100,000), with an average annual decline of 6.4%; children (0-14 years) were the lowest (4.8/100,000), with an average annual decline of 7.3%, but a significant increase of 3.3% between 2014 and 2020 (APC = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4 to 5.2); middle-aged (35-64 years) decreased by 5.8%; and youth (15-34 years) decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%. The average ASR in rural areas (81.3/100,000) is higher than that in urban areas (76.1/100,000). The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5% and 6.3% in urban areas. South China had the highest average ASR (103.2/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%, while North China had the lowest (56.5/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%. The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3 (/100,000), with the smallest annual decline (APC = -4.5, 95% CI: -5.5 to -3.5); the average ASR in the Northwest China was 100.1 (/100,000), with the largest annual decline (APC = -6.4, 95% CI: -10.0 to -2.7); Central, Northeastern, and Eastern China declined by an average of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 6.1% per year, respectively.@*CONCLUSIONS@#From 2005 to 2020, the notified incidence of PTB in China continued to decline, falling by 55%. For high-risk groups such as males, older adults, high-burden areas in South, Southwest, and Northwest China, and rural regions, proactive screening should be strengthened to provide timely and effective anti-TB treatment and patient management services for confirmed cases. There is also a necessity to be vigilant about the upward trend of children in recent years, the specific reasons for which need to be further studied.
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Criança , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adolescente , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Idoso , Incidência , Tuberculose Pulmonar/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Grupos PopulacionaisRESUMO
ObjectiveTo analyze the monitoring data of schistosomiasis from 2004 to 2021 in Suzhou New District， Jiangsu Province， and to provide evidence for improving schistosomiasis elimination strategies. MethodsFollowing the Opinions on Prevention and Control of Schistosomiasis， Parasitic Diseases and Endemic Diseases in Suzhou and the Technical Plan for Prevention and Control of Schistosomiasis， Parasitic Diseases and Endemic Diseases in Suzhou， the monitoring of schistosomiasis in the population and snail habitats from 2004 to 2021 was conducted. The Mann-Kendall method and Joinpoint regression method were employed to analyze the trend of epidemic indicators （such as seropositive rate， prevalence of snail frames， etc.）. Time series analysis （exponential smoothing model） was conducted to predict snail occurrence. ResultsFrom 2004 to 2021， a total of 73 680 people were serologically tested for schistosomiasis， with a positive rate of 0.084%. The seropositivity rate showed statistically significant differences between different years （χ2=70.73， P<0.05）， but there was no significant trend over time. In addition， 3 053 fecal tests were conducted and no positive result was found. The snail habitats covered an area of 70.11 hm2 and showed a decreasing trend （Z=-1.97， P<0.05）. A total of 30 093 frames were surveyed， of which 19.038% contained snails. The difference in the prevalence of snail frames between different years was statistically significant （χ2=7 203.09， P<0.05）， with a decreasing trend in the prevalence of snail frames （Z=-2.05， P<0.05）. A total of 26 296 live snails were seized and density of live snails was 0.874 snails per frame， showing a decreasing trend in the density of live snails （Z=-2.35， P<0.05）. A total of 12 391 snails were dissected and no infected snail was found. The areas treated with molluscicides remained stable at 264.60 hm2. An area of 27.77 hm2 achieved the goal of snail eradication through environmental modification， with a decreasing trend （Z=-2.44， P<0.05）. It is estimated that the prevalence of snail frames and snail density will remain relatively stable from 2022 to 2026， but the snail habitat area will fluctuate significantly， showing an increasing trend. ConclusionNo indigenous cases of schistosomiasis and no infected snails are reported， indicating the successful consolidation of schistosomiasis prevention and control measures. However， the snail habitat area fluctuates greatly with an increasing trend， suggesting the need for long-term Oncomelania snail monitoring in local areas.
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Objective To analyze the incidence, trend and influencing factors of congenital heart disease(CHD) in perinatal infants in Henan province. Methods From 2011 to 2020,1 356 838 perinatal infants born from 28 weeks of pregnancy to 7 days after delivery were selected from 37 national birth defect monitoring points in Henan province as the research subjects, and the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants from different regions, fetal sex and maternal age were compared. The Joinpiont regression model was established to analyze the temporal change trend of the incidence rate of CHD in perinatal infants in Henan province from 2011 to 2020; the annual percentage change (APC) represented the internal trend of each segment, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) represented the overall change trend. The trend of gap in incidence rate of CHD in different regions, mother's age and perinatal sex was compared by the Joinpiont parallel test. Results From 2011 to 2020,19 004 cases of perinatal infants with CHD were detected in Henan province, with a total incidence of 140.06/10 000; the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants showed an increasing trend year by year (AAPC=43.3% ,P<0.05) From 2011 to 2020, the incidence of CHD in urban perinatal infants in Henan province was significantly higher than that in rural areas, the incidence of CHD in male perinatal infants was significantly higher than that in female perinatal infants，and the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants in older mothers was significantly higher than that in younger mothers (X2=7 259.160,5 415.473,499.520; P<0.05). From 2011 to 2020,the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants in urban and rural areas of Henan province showed an increasing trend year by year (AAPC=42.5% ,44.5% ;P<0.05); the difference between urban and rural areas in the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants was increasing year by year(P<0.05). From 2011 to 2020,the incidence of CHD in male perinatal and famale perinatal infants in Henan province showed an increasing trend year by year(AAPC=44.3%，42.7% ;P<0.05). From 2011 to 2020, the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants of non-elderly and elderly pregnant women in Henan province showed an increasing trend year by year (AAPC=42.9% ,42.7% ;P<0.05).the difference between the elderly arid non-elderly pregnant women in the incidence of CHD In perinatal infants was increasing year by year (P<0.05). Conclusion From 2011 to 2020 ,the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants in Henan province showed an upward trend, and the regional distribution, fetal sex and maternal age were related to the incidence of perinatal CHD.
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ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemic trends and current status in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021， and to provide evidence for formulating and optimizing schistosomiasis control strategies in the province. MethodsEpidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021 were collected. The Joinpoint regression model was used to investigate the epidemic trends of schistosomiasis， and the annual average percent change （AAPC） was used to assess the changing trend of schistosomiasis infection in humans and bovines. SPSS 25.0 software was used to analyze the target achievement status， infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and the areas with snails in 2021 to evaluate the differences among various districts and epidemic regions. ResultsBy 2021， 24 counties （61.50%） in the province had achieved the elimination goal， with hilly and marsh counties reaching 82.60% and 31.30%， respectively. The seropositive rate of schistosomiasis in human was 3.51% across the province. However， the seropositive rate in marshland areas （4.77%） was significantly higher than that in hilly areas （1.23 %） （χ2=3 827.51， P<0.001）. The total area with snails in the province was 84 938.32 hm2， including 82 196.86 hm2 in marshland areas and 2 741.46 hm2 in hilly areas. From 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in the humans and bovines exhibited a declining trend， with AAPC values of -48.70 and -39.70， respectively. The decline rate in the hilly areas was higher than that in marshland areas. However， the area with snail showed an upward trend （AAPC=0.50）， with a growth rate of 5.80% in hilly areas， which was greater than that in marshland areas （0.40%）. ConclusionFrom 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and bovines in Jiangxi Province continued to decline， while the areas with snails increased. The prevention focus should still be on the marshland endemic areas， and attention should also be given to the risk of schistosomiasis in hilly endemic areas. Therefore， it is necessary to continue implementing a comprehensive prevention and control strategy that emphasizes controlling the sources of infection and adopts tailored measures based on local conditions and precise policies.
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OBJECTIVES@#Congenital birth defects are the main source of disease burden among children under 5 years old in China. This study aims to compare the trends in disease burden of different congenital birth defects among Chinese children under 5 years old from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a scientific basis for strengthening the comprehensive prevention and control of birth defects.@*METHODS@#Based on data from the Global Burden Disease (GBD) in 2019, the incidence mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of congenital birth defects among Chinese children under 5 years old from 1990 to 2019 were selected as evaluation indicators. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in disease burden of different types with congenital birth defects over three decades. The study also compared the differences in disease burden of congenital birth defects among children under 5 years old by gender.@*RESULTS@#Compared to 1990, the DALYs rates of congenital heart anomalies (1 931.91/100 000), digestive congenital anomalies (364.63/100 000), neural tube defects (277.20/100 000), congenital musculoskeletal and limb anomalies (133.33/100 000), and Down syndrome (128.22/100 000) in children under 5 years old in China in 2019 were decreased 70.78%, 71.61%, 86.21%, 36.84% and 73.65%, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the mortality rates and DALYs rates of different congenital birth defects showed an overall downward trend, but the incidence of digestive congenital anomalies and Down syndrome showed an upward trend after 2005 and 2001, respectively. Except for congenital musculoskeletal and limb anomalies, incidence of the remaining categories of birth defects were higher in boys than that in girls.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under 5 years old in China is decreased substantially from 1990 to 2019, but the burden of congenital heart anomalies is still serious and the incidence of some birth defect diseases is on the rise, and it is still crucial to strengthen the prevention and treatment for birth defects in children and propose targeted measures according to their gender characteristics.
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Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , China/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Síndrome de Down/epidemiologia , População do Leste Asiático , Anormalidades Congênitas/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Objective To measure the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict its changes from 2020 to 2030. Methods The age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) data resources, and the trends in burdens of hepatitis B-associated diseases were evaluated from 1990 to 2019 using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and annual percent change (APC). In addition, the changes in the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases were predicted in China from 2020 to 2023 using the Bayesian model. Results The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases reduced from 2 725.98/105 in 1990 to 1 397.31/105 in 2019 in China [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = −2.35%, 95% confidential interval (CI): (−2.58%, −2.13%)], with a reduction in the prevalence from 12 239.53/105 in 1990 to 6 566.12/105 in 2019 [EAPC = −2.34%, 95% CI: (−2.54%, −2.14%)], a reduction in the mortality from 24.67/105 in 1990 to 8.07/105 in 2019 [EAPC = −4.92%, 95% CI: (−5.37%, −4.47%)], and a reduction in the DALY rate from 793.38/105 in 1990 to 247.71/105 in 2019 [(EAPC = −5.15%, 95% CI: (−5.64%, −4.66%)]. The DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases were mainly attributed to liver cancer, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in China from 2012 to 2019 [APC = 1.30%, 95% CI: (0.16%, 2.45%)]. The overall burden of hepatitis Bassociated diseases was higher in males than in females, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases increased with age, with the greatest DALY rate seen among patients at ages of 50 to 69 years. The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases was projected to be 866.79/105 in China in 2030, with the greatest incidence seen in acute hepatitis B (854.87/105), and the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases was predicted to decline in China from 2020 to 2030; however, the burden of liver disease was projected to appear a tendency towards a rise. Conclusions The burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases appears an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2030; however, the burden of liver cancer appears a tendency towards aggravation. Early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer should be given a high priority.
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Objective To analysize the temporal trends in the disease burden of major human parasitic diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, so as to provide the evidence for improving the parasitic disease control strategy in China.. Methods The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of malaria, intestinal nematode infections, schistosomiasis, food-borne trematodiases, cysticercosis and echinococcosis in China from 1990 to 2019 were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), and age- and gender-specific DALYs of parasitic diseases were estimated. The temporal trends in DALYs of malaria, intestinal nematode infections, schistosomiasis, food-borne trematodiases, cysticercosis and echinococcosis were evaluated in China from 1990 to 2019 using average annual percent change (AAPC) with Joinpoint regression analysis. Results The DALYs were 643 836.42 person-years due to food-borne trematodiases, 156 853.03 person-years due to cysticercosis, 79 764.62 person-years due to schistosomiasis, 70 989.73 person-years due to intestinal nematode infections, 4 258.61 person-years due to echinococcosis and 264.86 person-years due to malaria in China in 2019, respectively. The overall DALYs of six parasitic diseases were higher among men (546 441.93 person-years) than among women (409 525.33 person-years), and were greater among adults at ages of 14 to 65 years (684 780.84 person-years) than among children at 14 years and lower (35 437.38 person-years) and the elderly at ages of 65 years and older (235 749.04 person-years). During the period from 1990 to 2019, food-borne trematodiases were the leading cause of DALYs among the six parasitic diseases, and cysticercosis shifted from the fourth leading cause in 1990 to the second leading cause of DALYs in China in 2019, while intestinal nematode infections shifted from the second leading cause in 1990 to the fourth leading cause of DALYs in 2019. The DALYs of major human parasitic diseases appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2019, with the fastest drop seen in DALYs due to malaria (AAPC = −19.6%, P = 0.003), followed by due to intestinal nematode infections (AAPC = −8.2%, P < 0.001) and schistosomiasis (AAPC = −3.1%, P < 0.001), and a slow decline was seen in the DALYs of food-borne trematodiases (AAPC = −1.0%, P < 0.001), while there were no significant decrease in the DALYs of echinococcosis (AAPC = −0.5%, P = 0.264) and the DALYs of cysticercosis appeared a tendency towards a rise (AAPC = 0.7%, P < 0.001). Conclusions The disease burden of major human parasitic diseases appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2019, with a high disease burden seen due to food-borne parasitic diseases, no remarkable reduction seen in echinococcosis, and a tendency towards a rise seen in cysticercosis. It is recommended to focus on echinococcosis control, and continue to consolidate the control achievements of other major human parasitic diseases in China; meanwhile, the surveillance and prevention of food-borne parasitic diseases should be reinforced.
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OBJECTIVE@#This study aimed to examine the trends in stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults in China.@*METHODS@#Data were obtained from the China national vital registration system. Significant changes in mortality were assessed by Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to explain the reasons for the changes. Future mortality and counts were predicted by the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.@*RESULTS@#Between 2002 and 2019, a total of 6,253,951 stroke mortality in young and middle-aged adults were recorded. The age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) of women showed a downward trend. The annual percent changes (APC) were -3.5% (-5.2%, -1.7%) for urban women and -2.8% (-3.7%, -1.9%) for rural women. By contrast, the AAMRs per 100,000 for rural men aged 25-44 years continued to rise from 9.40 to 15.46. The AAMRS for urban men aged 25-44 years and urban and rural men aged 45-64 years did not change significantly. Between 2020 and 2030, the projected stroke deaths are 1,423,584 in men and 401,712 in women.@*CONCLUSION@#Significant sex and age disparities in the trends of stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults were identified in China. Targeted health policy measures are needed to address the burden of stroke in the young generation, especially for rural men, with a focus on the prevention and management of high risk factors.
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Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Adulto , Humanos , Feminino , Teorema de Bayes , População Urbana , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , China/epidemiologia , MortalidadeRESUMO
Background Pesticide poisoning is not only a common acute poisoning, but also an indispensable public health problem. It is important to describe and analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of pesticide poisoning for its prevention and control. Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and trends of pesticide poisoning in Jiaxing from 2008 to 2020, and provide a basis for making effective intervention measures. Methods The relevant information of pesticide poisoning cases in Jiaxing from 2008 to 2020 was collected through the Occupational Disease and Occupational Health Information Monitoring System of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the demographic information was obtained from the statistical yearbook of Jiaxing. Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze trends in overall, gender, age, season, type of poisoning, and type of pesticide among poisoned individuals. Results A total of 3109 cases of pesticide poisoning were reported in Jiaxing City from 2008 to 2020. The overall pesticide poisoning incidence trended downward from 2008 to 2014, with an annual percent change (APC) of −9.0% (95%CI: −16.6%-−0.7%). The female pesticide poisoning incidence trended downward from 2008 to 2015, with an APC of −8.6% (95%CI: −13.9%-−2.9%). The 18-34 age group showed a decreasing trend of pesticide poisoning incidence from 2008 to 2015, with an APC of −11.0% (95%Cl: −17.4%-4.3%), and an increasing trend from 2015 to 2020, with an APC of 18.5% (95%Cl: 4.7%-34.0%). The >60 age group showed a decreasing trend of pesticide poisoning incidence from 2008 to 2014, with an APC of -12.9% (95%Cl: −20.4%-−4.7%). The second quarter showed an increasing trend of pesticide poisoning incidence from 2010 to 2020, with an APC of 4.4% (95%CI: 0.3%-8.5%); the third quarter showed a decreasing trend, with an APC of −4.9% (95%CI: −8.6%-−1.1%); the fourth quarter showed an increasing trend from 2015 to 2020, with an APC of 17.8% (95%CI: 4.4%-33.0%). Productive poisoning showed a decreasing trend, with an APC of −11.1% (95%CI: −16.2%-−5.7%); self-poisoning showed a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2014, with an APC of -9.5% (95%CI: −17.4%-−0.7%), and an increasing trend from 2014 to 2020, with an APC of 10.2% (95%CI: 0.5%-20.8%). The incidences of poisoning by herbicides, fungicides, and mixed formulations all showed an increasing trend from 2008 through 2020, with an APC of 8.6% (95%CI: 5.8%-11.5%), 9.1% (95%CI: 0.3%-18.7%), and 193.3% (95%CI: 11.6%-671.0%), respectively; the incidence of poisoning by other types of pesticides showed a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2020, with an APC of −14.1% (95%CI: −23.7%-−3.2%). Conclusion The overall reported pesticide poisoning incidents in Jiaxing City present a decline then a rise in 2008 to 2020. Relevant departments should take timely measures to prevent and reduce the occurrence of pesticide poisoning according to the changing characteristics and occurrence trends of local pesticide poisonings.
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Background: Cancer of unknown primary (CUP) origin is cancer in which malignant cancer cells are in the body but the site of cancer where it began is unknown. Detailed incidence and time trends of these cancers, specific to various regions in India is needed. This paper aims to summarize and report the incidence of other and unknown (O&U) cancers across India in 27 population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) and to study the trends among these cancers using joinpoint regression analysis. Methods: Data on the incidence of CUP were obtained from the published reports on 27 PBCRs of the National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). A joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the long-term trends of incidence related to CUP based on published data from PBCRs between 1986 and 2014. Annual Percent Change (APC) in incidence rate was estimated for various registries. Results: The northeast region had the highest age-adjusted rate (AAR) for both men (1.76–29.7) and women (1.99–14.68). Age-specific rate (ASR) for both men (39.8–855.7) and women (48.2–470.4) was highest in the northeast region. There is an increase in the incidence rate for all six major registries over the past decade with an exception of women in the Delhi Cancer Registry. There is a decline in incidence rate by 0.14 during 1990–2012 in the female population of the Delhi registry. Conclusion: The increasing incidence trends of CUP is a matter of concern for the healthcare professionals and researchers. There is a need for research and advanced and improved diagnostic tools for the improvement of the status of O&U cancers.
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Objective To analyze the dynamic changes of schistosomiasis in Poyang County of Jiangxi Province from 2004 to 2020, so as to provide insight into the development of the schistosomiasis elimination strategy. Methods Schistosomiasis control data were captured from Poyang County from 2004 to 2020, and the epidemiological data of schistosomiasis were collected from national schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Poyang County from 2005 to 2020. The endemic status of schistosomiasis was analyzed in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020, and a Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to investigate the trends of schistosomiasis in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020. Results The sero-prevalence and egg-prevalence of human Schistosoma japonicum infections reduced from 24.39% (24 976/102 397) and 4.53% (259/5 721) in 2004 to 5.37% (2 421/45 100) [annual percent change (APC) = average annual percent change (AAPC) = −8.64%] and 0 (0/3 963) in 2020 (APC = AAPC = −32.07%) in Poyang County, and the trends were both significant (both P < 0.01). The sero-prevalence of S. japonicum infections reduced from 1.21% (294/24 332) in bovines in 2013 to 0.58% (35/5 999) in 2020 in Poyang County, with one turning point (AAPC = −8.20%, P > 0.05). There were no townships or villages with emerging snail habitats in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020, and there were three turning points of trend in the proportion of snail areas detected in total snail areas (AAPC = −2.30%, P > 0.01). The sero-prevalence and adjusted prevalence of S. japonicum infections reduced from 60.82% (742/1 220) and 10.16% (124/1 220) in local residents in 2005 to 5.73% (70/1 221) and 0 in 2020 in national schistosomiasis surveillance sites of Poyang County, and the trends for sero-prevalence (APC = AAPC = 17.47%, P < 0.01) and adjusted prevalence of S. japonicum infections (APC = AAPC = −44.92%, P < 0.01) were both statistically significant. S. japonicum infections were identified in 10 (2005) and 2 local livestock (2007), with prevalence of 10.00% (10/100) and 13.33% (2/15), respectively, and S. japonicum infections were detected in snails in 2008 and 2009; however, no positive samples of mixed O. hupensis were detected by loop-mediated isothermal amplification. Conclusions The endemic situation of schistosomiasis control had remarkably reduced in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020; however, there are still challenges for consolidating schistosomiasis control achievements and even elimination of schistosomiasis.
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Objective:To analyze the tendency of incidence and mortality of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 through 2019 and to estimate the age-period-cohort effect.Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, the incidence and mortality data of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 were extracted. The trends of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents by gender was analyzed using the joinpoint regression model, and the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated. The age-period-cohort model was used to quantitatively assess the effects of age, period, and cohort on ASIR and ASDR for mechanical injuries.Results:① Overall tendency: from 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of mechanical injuries showed an increasing trend (540.95/100 000 in 1990 vs. 815.34/100 000 in 2019), and the ASDR first increased slightly and then decreased (2.62/100 000 in 1990 vs. 2.87/100 000 in 2005 vs. 1.77/100 000 in 2019) among Chinese residents. During the observation period, ASIR and ASDR for mechanical injuries of male were higher than female. ② Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the ASIR of mechanical injuries had a fluctuating trend of increasing first and then decreasing and then rising rapidly among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC = 1.42%, t = 9.59, P < 0.001). The ASIR of the Chinese male showed a slight decrease and then continued to increase (AAPC = 1.47%, t = 8.72, P < 0.001), while the ASIR of the Chinese female showed a rapid rising at first, then rapidly declining and then rising again (AAPC = 1.31%, t = 12.11, P < 0.001). From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR of mechanical injuries showed a fluctuating downward trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then rapidly decreasing among Chinese residents (AAPC = -1.39%, t = -6.72, P < 0.001). The decrease rate of ASDR among male was as same as that among all population (AAPC = -1.44%, t = -7.29, P < 0.001), but the decrease rate of ASDR in female was relatively slow (AAPC = -1.08%, t = -4.54, P < 0.001). ③ Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that, with the increase of age, the risk of mechanical injuries among the overall population, male and female in China increased, then decreased, and then increased rapidly. The first small peak was at the age of 45-49 years old in male and 65-69 years old in female. The overall death risk showed an increasing trend with age, with a slowly increasing trend before 75 years old, and a sudden increase after 75 years old. The peak age of death risk was between 90 and 94 years. In terms of period effect, the risk of mechanical injuries showed a gradually increasing trend with time among the overall population, male, and female in China, and the risk of death showed a trend of decreasing first and then rapidly increasing and then decreasing. In terms of cohort effect, the risk of mechanical injuries among the overall population, male, and female in China showed a gradual upward trend with the increase in the birth year, and the risk of death showed an M-shaped trend. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of mechanical injuries showed an increasing trend, and the mortality increased first and then decreased. Although the disease burden has improved, it is still high. More attention needs to be paid to the prevention and control of mechanical injuries, especially in the young population.
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Objective To analyze the trends of human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the schistosomiasis elimination strategy in the province. Methods All data pertaining to human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province were collected from 2004 to 2018, and the trends for changes in seroprevalence, egg-positive rate and prevalence of human Schistosoma japonicum infection were analyzed using a Joinpoint regression model. Results Both of the numbers of residents seropositive and egg-positive for S. japonicum infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence of human S. japonicum infections reduced from 6.85% in 2004 to 0 in 2018. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the prevalence of human S. japonicum infections appeared an overall tendency towards a reduction in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 [average annual percent change (AAPC) = −24.1%, P < 0.01], and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2006 [annual percent change (APC) = −35.1%, P < 0.01] and from 2006 to 2018 (APC = −22.1%, P < 0.01). The prevalence of human S. japonicum infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in islet (AAPC = −25.1%, P < 0.01), inner embankment (AAPC = −26.4%, P < 0.01) and hilly subtypes of schistosomiasis-endemic areas (AAPC = −32.5%, P < 0.01) of Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence all appeared a tendency towards a decline during the infection control stage (from 2004 to 2008), the transmission control stage (from 2009 to 2013) and the transmission interruption stage (from 2014 to 2018) (AAPC = −28.0%, −24.4% and −63.8%, all P values < 0.01). The seroprevalence of human S. japonicum infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = −14.5%, P < 0.01), and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2012 (APC = −8.4%, P < 0.01) and from 2012 to 2018 (APC = −22.1%, P < 0.01). In addition, the egg-positive rate of human S. japonicum infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = −30.6%, P < 0.05), and the trend for the reduction was significant during the period from 2007 to 2014 (APC = −15.5%, P < 0.01). Conclusions The prevalence of human schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the islet and inner embankment subtypes of endemic areas are a high priority for schistosomiasis control during the stage moving towards elimination in Hubei Province.
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Objective To investigate the current situation and annual trend of injuries among primary and middle school students in Changning District, Shanghai, and to provide scientific evidence for decision-making of prevention and control. Methods The monitoring data of various types of injuries was collected from the “cause of class absence” system during the 2010-2017 school years. The Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percent change and average annual percent change, and to perform the trend test. Results During the 2010-2017 school years in Changning District, a total of 2,286 cases of injuries occurred among primary and middle school students, with an injury rate of about 0.70%. The top three prevalent injury types were falls, traffic accidents, and burn-related injury. The results of Joinpoint trend analysis indicated that the incidence of total injuries in Changning District was generally decreasing, which was mainly due to the effective control of injuries caused by falls, traffic accidents, and burns, and to the decreasing injury incidence among primary school students. Conclusion The overall situation of injuries among primary and middle school students in Changning District has improved significantly, but falls and traffic accidents are still important health threats. More attentions should be paid to certain groups, such as vocational and special education students.
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Objective: To analyze the mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer in Cixian County, Hebei Province, China, over the past 33 years, and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of such cancer. Methods: According to the cancer registration regulations, changes in the mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer were collected, sorted and evaluated, and the trends in the mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer were analyzed using the cancer registration data accumulated by the Cixian cancer Registration Office between January 1, 1983, and December 31, 2015. The percentage changes in crude mortality, standardized mortality in China, and the standardized worldwide mortality were calculated. The annual percent change of mortality was estimated using a linear regression model of the adjustment rate. Results: Over the 33-year period in Cixian County, the average crude mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer was 119.31/100,000, including 149.21/100,000 for males and 88.40/100,000 for females. The standardized mortality rate in China was 160.85/100,000, including 227.00/100,000 males and 108.07/100,000 females. The worldwide standardized mortality rate was 162.39/100,000, including 228.52/100,000 males and 109.30/100,000 females. Conclusions: The mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer displayed a decreasing trend, but it still had the highest mortality rate of malignant tumors in Cixian County. Age-specific mortalities were increasing along with the rise of age.
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Objective To analyze the tendency of road traffic injuries and explore its main influencing factors in China from 1997 to 2016, so as to provide references for decision-making of prevention and control. Methods Data was collected from national data website. Annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated and trend tests were performed by Joinpoint Regression Program 4.6.0.0. Results The overall trend of the indexes was basically the same, reaching the highest record in 2002. The following downward tendency was different and tended to level off after 2009. However, the forecast showed that the fatality of road traffic accidents would increase slightly in recent years. For different road traffic modes, only the average annual percent change of motor vehicle injuries statistically descended (AAPC=-1.83, Z=-2.23, P=0.026). The average annual decreases of non-motor vehicle deaths were statistically significant (AAPC=-1.98, Z=-2.47, P=0.014), and the number of injured showed a notable upward trend instead (AAPC=3.95, Z=5.16, P<0.001). The indexes of walking and riding were declined markedly (AAPC≥7.90, P<0.001). Conclusions The status of walking and riding had been improved significantly, but motor vehicles injuries were still the main traffic mode causing road traffic injuries. The safety situation of non-motor vehicles was increasingly serious. Adopting legal compulsory measures and other intervention to routine systematic management was quite necessary.
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Objective:To analyze the current situation for the mortality of Chinese female breast cancer and the trend of change in the past thirty years,and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of breast cancer in China.Methods:The mortality data of breast cancer in Chinese female from 1987 to 2014 were collected,the trends of age-standardized rates and age-adjusted rates were described,and the variations via Joinpoint regression models were analyzed.Results:From 1987 to 2014,the mortality for the urban female breast cancer was greater than that for the rural females.There was a downward trend for urban women with an average decrease of 0.3％ for each year (P=0.06).While the average annual change for rural females showed an upward trend (AAPC=l.26％,P＜0.01).The gap between urban and rural females is narrowing gradually.The 40-59 age-adjusted rate for urban females decreased first and then it was increased with time moving forward.The mortality for rural females was continuously increased.Conclusion:From 1987 to 2014,the breast cancer mortality for urban females was overall higher than that for rural females.The mortality for rural females was continuously increased in the past years.The gap between urban and rural females is narrowing.We should pay specific attention to the prevention and treatment of breast cancer for the rural females.
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Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API) was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC) (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05). This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.