Análisis prospectivo y líneas estratégicas de acción para la producción agraria colombiana en un entorno pos-COVID-19 / Prospective analysis and strategic lines of action for colombian agricultural production in a pos-COVID-19 environment

El artículo desarrolla un análisis prospectivo exploratorio, orientado a la identificación de elementos de análisis, escenarios y líneas de acción estratégicas sobre la producción agraria colombiana en un entorno pos COVID-19. El método empleado desarrolló revisión de literatura, análisis estructural para la identificación de escenarios y la enunciación de líneas de acción. Los hallazgos sugieren que la crisis de demanda es el elemento más influyente, y que posibles transformaciones del sector tendrían que pasar por cambios en el uso de los territorios agrarios, en la subordinación institucional y en una novedosa perspectiva de seguridad alimentaria.

The purpose of the article was to develop a prospective exploratory analysis, oriented to the identification of elements of analysis, scenarios and strategic lines of action, on Colombian agricultural production in a post Covid-19 environment. The method used developed a literature review, structural analysis for the identification of scenarios and the enunciation of strategic lines. The findings suggest that the demand crisis is the most influential element, and that transformations in the sector would have to go through changes in the use of agrarian territories, in institutional subordination and in a novel perspective of food security.

Análisis psicométrico del cuestionario de memoria prospectiva y retrospectiva / Psychometric Analysis of the Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire

Resumen Para poder cuantificar e investigar científicamente las quejas mnésicas de los pacientes, se hace necesario contar con un instrumento adaptado y que presente análisis psicométricos adecuados. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue estudiar propiedades psicométricas de una versión argentina del Cuestionario de Memoria Prospectiva y Retrospectiva. Para ello se administró el Cuestionario de Memoria Prospectiva y Retrospectiva de forma individual a 192 participantes sanos con más de 27 puntos en el Mini Mental State Examination. La media de edad fue de 39.67 años (DE = 12.3). La media de escolaridad fue de 14.5 años (DE = 2.72). A un subgrupo de participantes (n = 45) denominado Subgrupo A, también se les administraron pruebas de memoria prospectiva y retrospectiva. El Índice Global del Cuestionario presentó una distribución normal. Según el análisis factorial exploratorio se estableció la extracción de un factor que explicó el 35.19 % de la varianza. El coeficiente α de Cronbach fue de .87. La confiabilidad estimada por el método de la división por mitades fue de .73 y de .84 luego de la corrección con la fórmula de Spearman-Brown. No hubo correlación significativa entre las respuestas del cuestionario y los test de memoria retro y prospectiva en el subgrupo A. Estos resultados permiten concluir que el Cuestionario de Memoria Prospectiva y Retrospectiva presenta adecuados índices de confiabilidad y una estructura de un solo factor. Si bien no se asocia con el rendimiento objetivo en pruebas de memoria, muestra ser apropiado para el registro de las quejas subjetivas de los pacientes en la región de estudio.

Abstract Memory complaints are the reason for consultation in many cases of neurological injuries and in the majority of aged people who attend the neurological clinic. The presence of memory complaints is a diagnostic criterion for mild cognitive impairment, for which it is necessary to have an appropriate and specific instrument, which would allow us to quantify and scientifically investigate it. The aim of the present study is to analyze the psychometric properties of an Argentine version of the Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire: the factorial structure of the test; its internal consistency; correlations of the questionnaire with an objective measurement of retro and prospective memory; and correlations of the questionnaire with affective-emotional variables. The Mexican version of the Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire was administered individually to 192 healthy participants who achieved more than 27 point in the Mini Mental State Examination. A modification was made to the syntax of two sentences in order to increase the comprehensibility. A Global, Prospective and a Retrospective Index of the questionnaire was calculated for each participant. Anxiety (the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory: STAI) and depression (the Beck's Depression Inventory-II) scales were also administered. The mean age was 39.67 years (SD = 12.3). The average of schooling was 14.5 years (SD = 2.72). We also selected a subgroup of participants (n = 45) with a mean age of 37.58 years (SD = 11.4), and an average schooling in years of 14.36 (SD = 3). In addition to the memory questionnaire, this subgroup, called the A Subgroup, was administered prospective (El Cóndor test) and retrospective (The Selective Memory Test) objective memory tests. The mean in the Global Index was 32.25 (SD = 8.49), in the Prospective Index it was 17.3 (SD = 5.01) and in the Retrospective Index it was 14.95 (SD = 4.07). The test for normality of the distribution of the Global Index Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) was Z = 1.031, p = .238. In the same way, the other two scores of the questionnaire show a normal curve, K-S of the Prospective Index Z = 1.109, p = .171; K-S of the Retrospective Index Z = 1.264, p = .082. According to the exploratory factor analysis through the Maximum Likelihood extraction method, a single factor explained 35.19 % of the variance. The Cronbach's α coefficient was .87. The reliability estimated by the split-half method was .73 and .84 after correction with the Spearman-Brown formula. There was a significant positive correlation of mild degree between the Global Questionnaire Index and the STAI Trait, r = .33, p = .013, and with the IDB-II, e = .23, p = .127. There was no significant correlation between the questionnaire responses and the retro and prospective memory objective tests in the A Subgroup. The Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire presents adequate reliability indexes and a single factor structure. The results indicate that the questionnaire associates with anxiety and depression in a positive way, but not with the objective measures of retro and prospective memory, in coincidence with the literature about the relationship between cognitive complaints and cognitive tests performance. In sum, this study shows that the questionnaire is an appropriate instrument to quantify patient's memory complaints and particularly for its use in the study region. This study is the first in the country to investigate the psychometric properties of the Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire, widely used in neuropsychological clinic and research around the world. Efforts should be made to obtain normative data and validation in the pathological population of interest.

Retos del sistema general de seguridad social y salud: prospectiva para el desarrollo social en la Costa Atlántico de Colombia / Challenges of the general system of social security and health: Prospective for social development in the Atlantic Coast of Colombia

Introducción: Concepción interdisciplinaria de la gestión del sistema de salud en el contexto latinoamericano, de acuerdo con lo establecido por la Organización Mundial de la Salud/ Organización Panamericana de la Salud. El artículo propone una estrategia prospectiva de desarrollo social en la Costa Atlántica de Colombia, para afianzar el funcionamiento, desde lo preventivo y asistencial, del Sistema General de Seguridad Social y Salud colombiano. Objetivo: Definir, desde una visión prospectiva para el desarrollo social colectivo, los retos del Sistema General de Seguridad Social y Salud colombiano. Método: Estudio exploratorio, fundamentado en el análisis teórico conceptual que permite derivar el sistema de relaciones de las categorías: gerencia del sistema de salud y desarrollo social colectivo. Se aplica la prospectiva estratégica, mediante el componente empírico-analítico, a través del cual se visualizan escenarios futuros que direccionen el desarrollo del sistema de salud a partir de la interacción entre sus actores representativos. Resultados: Se determinaron debilidades relacionadas con la gestión integral del Sistema General de Seguridad Social y Salud colombiano, específicamente en la Costa Atlántica. En esta región del país el escaso uso de técnicas prospectivas debilita la estrategia gerencial y minimiza la posibilidad de asumir retos y prever incertidumbres en uno de los sistemas que, a través de la efectividad de servicios de salud y calidad de vida, supone un indicador de desarrollo social colectivo. Conclusiones: Necesidad de visionar retos y escenarios para modelar la gestión del Sistema General de Seguridad Social y Salud en la Costa Atlántica de Colombia para afianzar la equidad, la inclusión y la calidad de vida e incrementar los estándares de gestión de la salud en colectivos y comunidades vulneradas(AU)

Introduction: There is an interdisciplinary basis conceived for the management of the health system in the Latin American context, in accordance with the provisions of WHO/PAHO and that is linked with related disciplines, such as management and education. This article proposes a prospective strategy of social development in the Atlantic Coast of Colombia to consolidate its functioning from the preventive and welfare perspectives in the Colombian's General System of Social Security and Health (SGSSS, by its acronym in Spanish). Objective: To define the challenges of the SGSSS from a prospective point of view for the collective social development. Method: An exploratory study, based on the conceptual, theoretical analysis to derive the relations´ system of the following categories: management of the health system, and collective social development. Strategic prospective is used by the empirical-analytical component to visualize future scenarios of probable occurrence that address the development of the health system from the interaction between its representative actors. Results: The weaknesses identified were related to the comprehensive management of the Colombian SGSSS, specifically on the Atlantic Coast, where the limited use of prospective techniques weakens the management strategy and minimizes the possibility of assuming challenges and anticipating uncertainties in one of the systems that through the effectiveness of health services and quality of life warrants responding to collective social development. Conclusions: There is a need to view challenges and scenarios for modeling the management of the SGSSS on the Atlantic Coast of Colombia to strengthen the equity, inclusion and quality of life, and to increase the standards of health management in vulnerable groups and communities(AU)

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY IN SPORTS: TRENDS IN PATENTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL AND COLOMBIAN SPORTS INDUSTRY / PROPRIEDADE INTELECTUAL NO ESPORTE: TENDÊNCIAS DE PATENTES NA INDUSTRIA ESPORTIVA INTERNACIONAL E COLOMBIANA / PROPIEDAD INTELECTUAL EN EL DEPORTE: TENDENCIAS EN PATENTES DE LA INDUSTRIA DEPORTIVA INTERNACIONAL Y COLOMBIANA

La propiedad intelectual en el deporte es un tema poco estudiado, por lo que se carece de información robusta para describir el panorama global de la innovación de la industria deportiva. El presente artículo tiene como propósito identificar las tendencias de la industria deportiva internacional y la realidad colombiana sobre la protección de la innovación en el mercado de patentes. Mediante un estudio exploratorio, se caracterizaron los indicadores bibliométricos para patentes en los últimos 20 años. Los resultados muestran un aumento notable desde 2007 en registros de patentes, siendo China el país más innovador, y el mercado de aparatos para el entrenamiento físico el de mayor crecimiento a nivel global. En Colombia se registran 17 familias de patentes y seis segmentos estratégicos para el desarrollo de productos altamente innovadores.

Propriedade intelectual e inovação no esporte são tópicos poucos estudados, portanto, há uma falta de informação robusta para descrever o panorama da inovação da indústria do esporte. O presente artigo tem como objetivo identificar as tendências da indústria do esporte internacional e a realidade colombiana sobre a proteção da inovação no mercado de patentes. Através de um estudo exploratório, os indicadores bibliométricos para patentes nos últimos 20 anos foram caracterizados. Os resultados revelam um aumento marcante no registro de patentes desde o 2007, sendo a China o país mais inovador, o mercado de aparelhos para o treinamento físico é o de maior crescimento global. Na Colômbia, se cadastram 17 famílias de patentes e seis segmentos estratégicos para o desenvolvimento de produtos altamente inovadores.

Intellectual property in sports is a little studied subject, therefore, there is a lack of relevant information to describe the global panorama of innovation in the sports industry. This article aims to identify the trends in the international sports industry and the Colombian reality about the protection of innovation in the patent market. Through an exploratory study, bibliometric indicators were characterized for patents in the last 20 years. The results show a remarkable increase since 2007 in patent registrations being China the most innovative country; the market of the devices for physical training devices presents the greater growth at a global level. In Colombia, 17 patent families and six strategic segments are registered for the development of highly innovative products.

Análisis prospectivo de las competencias genéricas Tuning-Alfa en la ciudad de Medellín al 2032 / Prospective analysis of the generic Tuning-Alfa competences in the city of Medellin by the year 2032

Resumen Al establecer el carácter estratégico de las competencias genéricas Tuning en los procesos formativos de los administradores al 2032 en la ciudad de Medellín, se evidencian que, la competencia surge con sentido ontológico, evoluciona a lo praxeológico y posteriormente integra los dos sentidos. Se confirma que en la administración se privilegian procesos profesionalizantes, se requiere el dominio de un segundo idioma, se requiere compromiso con el medio sociocultural y se espera el desarrollo de la capacidad de aplicar los conocimientos en la práctica; se considera que la formación se orienta para desarrollar la capacidad creativa; y se evidencia una relevante indiferencia con respecto a la formación ética y de responsabilidad social.

Abstract When establishing the strategic nature of the generic Tuning competences in the training processes of managers by the year 2032 in the city of Medellin, it is made evident that the competence emerges with an ontological sense, it evolves to the praxeological approach, and then, it integrates the two senses. In management, it is confirmed that professionalizing processes are privileged, the mastery of a foreign language is required, a commitment to the sociocultural environment is required, and the development of the ability to apply knowledge in practice is expected. It is considered that training is oriented to develop the creative ability; and a relevant indifference with respect to the ethical training and social responsibility is made evident.

Challenges faced and lessons learned: a multi-component prospective memory training program for Malaysian older adults / Desafios enfrentados e lições aprendidas: um programa de treinamento de memória prospectiva de vários componentes para adultos idosos da Malásia

Abstract The surrounding circumstances and environments of Malaysian older adults could make conducting interventions (mainly in terms of clinical or randomized controlled trials) a challenge. Working with older adults and facing cultural issues could be challenging. Objective: This paper illustrates a significant perspective of some of the challenges faced while conducting a randomized controlled trial exploring the impact of a multi-component intervention that included strategy- and process-based prospective memory (PM) training among Malaysian older adults. Methods: The current study was a randomized controlled trial (RCT) and therefore the challenges were presented in accordance with the CONSORT statement style. Results: A discussion on how these issues were addressed is provided. Conclusion: Some suggestions were presented to help researchers plan and create interventions for similar studies and to support a practical method of addressing all related challenges.

Resumo As circunstâncias e ambientes circundantes de adultos idosos da Malásia poderiam tornar a condução da intervenção (principalmente em termos de ensaios clínicos ou randomizados controlados) um desafio. Trabalhar com adultos mais velhos e enfrentar problemas culturais pode ser instigante. Objetivo: Este artigo ilustra uma perspectiva significativa de alguns dos desafios enfrentados durante a realização de um estudo controlado randomizado que explora o impacto de uma intervenção de múltiplos componentes, incluindo treinamento de memória prospectiva baseado em estratégia e processo (PM) entre idosos da Malásia. Métodos: Como o estudo atual foi um ensaio clínico randomizado (ECR), os desafios foram apresentados de acordo com o estilo de declaração CONSORT. Resultados: Uma discussão sobre como essas questões foram abordadas é fornecida. Conclusão: Algumas sugestões foram apresentadas para ajudar os pesquisadores a planejar e criar intervenções para estudos semelhantes e capacitar um método prático para abordar todos os desafios relacionados.

Prospective memory in patients with relapsing remitting Multiple Sclerosis

La Memoria Prospectiva (MP) es un conjunto de habilidades cognitivas que permite recordar y realizar acciones planeadas o intenciones demoradas. El objetivo de este estudio fue investigar la MP en pacientes con Esclerosis Múltiple Recaídas y Remisiones (EMRR) con dos pruebas experimentales que evalúan distintos aspectos de la MP. Se evaluaron 36 pacientes con EMRR y un grupo control de 35 voluntarios sanos (GC), apareados por edad y escolaridad. Se administró una batería de tests neuropsicológicos que incluye dos técnicas que evalúan la MP: El Cóndor y el Test de Memoria Prospectiva de Tareas Múltiples (MTPM). Los pacientes obtuvieron un puntaje más bajo que el GC (en puntaje total de El Cóndor, p = .007, d = 0.7). En el MTPM, el GC obtuvo significativamente más puntos en la Fase de Formación de la intención (p = .027, d = .5). El 63% de los pacientes versus el 88.5% del GC, autoiniciaron la intención (p = .014). Los pacientes que obtuvieron mejor puntaje en Formación, autoiniciaron más la acción proyectada (p = .012). La educación, la duración de la enfermedad y la depresión correlacionaron leve y significativamente con el Cóndor y el MTPM. La discapacidad física se relacionó sólo con la capacidad de autoiniciar del MTPM. Se concluye que la MP parece estar afectada negativamente en pacientes con EMRR. Se encontró un deterioro de la planificación y la autoiniciación de la intención. La autoniciación fue influenciada por la calidad de la planificación. Los resultados destacan la necesidad de evaluar objetivamente la MP en pacientes con EMRR para poder detectar cualquier alteración en las etapas iniciales de la enfermedad y comenzar una rehabilitación apropiada.

Prospective Memory (PM) is a set of cognitive abilities that allow us to remember to perform planned actions or delayed intentions. It requires the recall of the content of the planned task in the form of an intention to be able to execute it at the appropriate moment. Previous studies have yielded conflicting results as some show that MS patients have difficulty in remembering the content of intentions and others in the process of self-initiation of delayed intentions. Moreover, the relationship between PM and clinical variables also remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate PM in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) with two experimental tests that evaluate different aspects of the MP. Another aim of the current study was to analyse the relationship between PM and demographic variables and clinical variables. 36 outpatients with a diagnosis of RRMS attending to two centers specialized in multiple sclerosis clinics, were recruited. Thirty five healthy volunteers formed the contrast group (CG), matched for age, gender and education with the MS patients. A neuropsychological test battery that included two techniques for measuring PM was administered. The Condor Test consists of reading a text whilst simultaneously executing many actions. In the Multitask Prospective Memory (MTPM), the participant must remember to initiate a complex intention, which was previously planned. The test yields formation scores of the intention, initiation, plan retention capacity and finally two execution scores. A depression scale (Beck Depression Inventory, BDI-II) was administered and physical disability was revealed using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. In the RRMS group, the majority of patients (80.6%) had none or minimal signs of depression according to BDI-II classification criteria. Seventy five % of patients were in full- or half-time employment, 13.9% were unemployed or in occasional employment and 11.1% were house wives or retired on grounds of age. With respect to cognitive performance 47.2% of MS patients presented cognitive impairment. RRMS patients and the CG did not differ significantly on age and years of formal education. Groups showed no significant differences in distribution of Gender. Patients scored significantly lower than the CG on the Condor's total score, p = .007, d = .7. On the MTPM, the CG obtained significantly more points for intention formation than patients, p = .027, d = .5. Sixty-three percent of patients versus 88.5% of the CG self-initiated the intention, p = .014. Patients who obtained a higher score on Formation, self-initiated more often, p = .012. Education, disease progression and depression measure with the Beck Depression Inventory, significantly and mildly correlated with the Condor and the MTPM. Physical disability was only associated with the intention planning phase of MTPM. PM appears to be impaired in patients with RRMS. A deficit was found in planning and self-initiation of planned actions. Self-initiation was influenced by planning quality. Education, disease progression and depression were shown to influence recall and execution of future intentions. Physical disability was only associated with the intention planning phase. Some previous studies have not found a significant relationship between physical disability and cognitive measures. This study suggests that PM can be affected in patients with a low level of physical impairment. Results highlight the need for objective assessment of PM in RRMS patients to be able to detect any disorder in the initial stages of the disease and start appropriate rehabilitation. Amongst the limitations of this study, the observational, non-blind design must be acknowledged, as well as the small sample size. Also, the instruments used to assess PM are relatively new and studies of their psychometric properties are lacking. Nevertheless, the use of an instrument like The Condor is notable, given that it was developed for local population.

De encuentros y desencuentros entre jóvenes y personas adultas a propósito de salir de la enseñanza secundaria en Chile / Encounters between adults and young people who are about to leave secondary education in Chile / De encontros e desencontros entre jovens e adultos prestes a deixar o ensino secundário no Chile

En la investigación que referimos en este artículo, nos posicionamos en el ®momento de paso¼ que las y los jóvenes estudiantes de enseñanza media de sectores pobres experimentan al concluir su trayecto educativo secundario, a partir de la reflexión en torno a los sentidos que sus dinámicas relacionales, expectativas y aspiraciones adquieren para ellas y ellos. A través de grupos de discusión, se provocó la expresión de las hablas y experiencias juveniles, que fueron interpretadas a partir del Análisis Estructural del Discurso. El interés se centró en construir y describir las unidades elementales que organizan los significados de la conversación, para comprender sus relaciones y dinámicas en una situación de interacción comunicativa.

In the study reported on in this article, the authors focus on the“moment of transition” that students from low socio–economic backgrounds navigate when theyfinish high school. The study facilitates reflection among young people regarding the dynamics oftheir relationships, expectations and aspirations and the meanings that they have given to these concepts. Through discussion groups the authors facilitated the expression of the language andexperiences of young people, which were interpreted using structural discourse analysis techniques.The interest of the researchers centered on constructing and describing the fundamental units thatorganize the meaning of their conversations in order to understand their relationships and dynamicsin a communicative interaction situation.

Na pesquisa relatada neste artigo, estamos posicionados no “intervalo de tempo” no qual jovens estudantes do ensino médio de setores pobres experimentam ao concluir seu percurso de ensino secundário, a partir da reflexão em torno aos sentidos que sua dinâmica relacional, expectativas e aspirações adquirem para eles mesmos. Através de grupos de discussão,provocou–se a expressão de conversas e experiências juvenis, que foram interpretados a partir da Análise Estrutural do Discurso. O interesse foi centrado em construir e descrever as unidades elementares que organizam os significados da conversa, para compreender suas relações e dinâmicas em situação de interação comunicativa.

Prevención de desórdenes musculoesqueléticos de origen laboral en Colombia: un estudio de futuro para el año 2025 / Prevention of Work-related Muscular-skeletal Disorders in Colombia: A Prospective Study for 2025 / Prevenção de desordens musculoesqueléticos de origem laboral na Colômbia: um estudo de futuro para o ano 2025

Objetivo: este estudio presenta los resultados de un análisis de prospectiva estratégica aplicado a la prevención de los desórdenes musculoesqueléticos (DME) de origen laboral en Colombia. Comienza con el establecimiento del estado del arte y el análisis de tendencias y megatendencias mundiales en materia de prevención y culmina con la selección de un escenario apuesta, considerado por los expertos como aquel al que Colombia debe apostarle en el año 2025. Materiales y métodos: el método que se utilizó es el propuesto en el modelo prospectivo avanzado 2008, el cual permite seleccionar un "escenario apuesta", basado en el análisis retrospectivo y el estado actual de un sistema de estudio, así como el análisis de las tendencias, las opiniones de los expertos, el monitoreo tecnológico, el juego de actores y su interrelación. Con dichos insumos, se convocaron expertos de diversas áreas de interés de la Ergonomía y los riesgos laborales para adelantar los talleres de prospectiva estratégica, definición de factores de cambio, variables estratégicas, juego de actores, diseño de escenarios con los ejes de Peter Schwartz y análisis morfológico. Resultados: la información de los expertos se procesó con el análisis estructural en el software MIC MAC (1) y las relaciones con los actores, con el Mactor (1). Conclusiones: los factores y sus relaciones se examinaron hasta definir de manera objetiva los vectores de cambio para el futuro, los cuales permiten diseñar estrategias que, transformadas en acciones, en el corto y mediano plazo, conduzcan a los interesados a construir el futuro deseado para el año 2025

Objectives: this study presents the results of a strategic prospective analysis applied on the prevention of work-related muscular-skeletal disorders in Colombia. First the state of the art was established, then an analysis of worldwide trends and megatrends in prevention was made, finally a challenge scenario was selected, which is considered by experts as the one which Colombia should aim at in 2025. Materials and methods: the method used is the one proposed in the Advanced Prospective Model 20081, which allows the selection of a "Challenge Scenario" based on retrospective analysis and the current status of a system under study, as well as the analysis of the trends, opinions of experts, monitoring of technology, interplay of actors, and their interrelation. Having these inputs, experts in diverse areas of interest for ergonomics and job hazards were appointed to develop the workshops in strategic prospective: Factors of change, strategic variables, interplay of actors, design of scenarios using the axes of Peter Schwartz, and morphologic analysis. Results: the data provided by the experts was processed via structural analysis using the MIC MAC software (1) and the relations with the actors were processed using Mactor (1), Conclusion: in such a way that the factors and their relations were analyzed until defining the vectors of change for the future in an objective way, which allows to devise strategies that transformed into actions, going from short-term to mid-term, allow the stakeholders to construct the future desired for the year 2025.

Este estudo apresenta os resultados de uma análise de prospectiva estratégica aplicado à prevenção das desordens musculoesqueléticos (DME) de origem laboral na Colômbia. Começa com o estabelecimento do estado da arte e a análise de tendências e megatendências mundiais em matéria de prevenção, e culmina com a seleção de um cenário aposta, considerado pelos expertos como aquele ao que a Colômbia deve apostar-lhe no ano 2025. O método que se utilizou, é o proposto no Modelo Prospectivo avançado 2008, o qual permite selecionar um "Cenário Aposta", baseado na análise retrospectiva e o estado atual de um sistema de estudo, assim como a análise das tendências, as opiniões dos expertos, o monitoramento tecnológico, o jogo de atores e a sua inter-relação. Com ditos insumos, convocaram-se a expertos de diversas áreas de interesse da ergonomia e os riscos de trabalho, para adiantar os seminários de prospectiva estratégica, definição de fatores de mudança, variáveis estratégicas, jogo de atores, desenho de cenários usando os eixos de Peter Schwartz e análise morfológico. A informação dos expertos se processou com a utilização da análise estrutural no software MIC MAC (Godet, 2001) e as relações com os atores com o uso do MACTOR (Godet, 1990). Os fatores e as suas relações se analisaram até chegar a definir estratégias, que transformadas em ações, no curto e mediano prazo, permitam aos interessados construir o futuro desejado para o ano 2025.

Centros de desarrollo empresarial zonal: experiencias significativas de desarrollo sostenible en Medellín

Introducción. Este artículo se elabora a partir del estudio de evaluación de impacto del programa de los Centros de Desarrollo Empresarial Zonal (CEDEZO). Objetivo. Conocer los resultados y la prospección del programa CEDEZO en sus primeros seis (6) años de funcionamiento, a partir de su incidencia en la superación del fenómeno de la violencia en la ciudad de Medellín durante la década de 1990. Materiales y métodos. Se realizó un estudio cualitativo en prospectiva estratégica a procesos de capacitación, charla y asesoría empresariales, sensibilización, gestión interinstitucional e intervención por barrios a un total de 552 participantes. Resultados. Los diagnósticos elaborados por las entidades públicas hacen evidente una profundización de las diferencias económicas y sociales territoriales en la ciudad, y una población cada vez más creciente y excluida de las dinámicas económicas y de las oportunidades de empleo, ingresos y créditos. La exclusión profundiza la informalidad, un problema estructural en el país, e incrementa los niveles de pobreza. Se registró en el año 2002 un nivel de 60 % de su población por debajo de la línea de pobreza y una tasa de informalidad de 54,6 % en ese mismo año. Conclusiones. Se hace necesaria una estrategia que fomente el desarrollo y fortalecimiento del tejido empresarial competitivo para generar una cultura del emprendimiento, la prospectiva y la actitud de empresarismo de los ciudadanos.

Introduction. This article is made starting from the impact evaluation study of the CEDEZO program (Centros de desarrollo empresarial zonal, Zonal Entrepreneurial Development Centers). Objective. See the results and the prospection of the CEDEZO program in its first six years of functioning, and its role in getting over the 1990´s violence of Medellín. Materials and methods. A qualitative study in strategic prospective to training, speaking and advisory about entrepreneurial subjects, sensitization, inter-institutional management and intervention in neighborhoods was made with 552 participants. Results. The diagnosis made by public entities demonstrate deeper economic and social differences in the territories of the city, and also shows a population that grows in terms of economical dynamics, lack of employment opportunities, income and credits. That exclusion deepens informality, a structural Colombian problem, and increases the poverty levels. In 2002, 60% of the population was registered as living below the poverty line and an informality rate of 54,6%. Conclusions. It is necessary to propose a strategy that boosts the development and the strengthening of the competitive businesses to generate an entrepreneurship culture, the prospective and the entrepreneurial attitude among the citizens.

Introdução. Este artículo se elabora a partir do estudo de avaliação de impacto do programa dos Centros de Desenvolvimento Empresarial Zonal (CEDEZO). Objetivo. Conhecer os resultados e a prospecção do programa CEDEZO no seus primeiros seis (6) anos de funcionamento, a partir de sua incidência na superação do fenômeno da violência na cidade de Medellín durante a década de 1990. Materiais e métodos. Se realizou um estudo qualitativo em prospectiva estratégica a processos de capacitação, conversa e assessoria empresariais, sensibilização, gestão interinstitucional e intervenção por bairros a um total de 552 participantes. Resultados. Os diagnósticos elaborados pelas entidades públicas fazem evidente um aprofundamento das diferenças econômicas e sociais territoriais na cidade, e uma população cada vez mais crescente e excluída das dinâmicas econômicas e das oportunidades de emprego, ingressos e créditos. A exclusão aprofunda a informalidade, um problema estrutural no país, e incrementa os níveis de pobreza. Se registrou em 2002 um nível de 60 % de sua população por baixo da linha de pobreza e uma taxa de informalidade de 54,6 % nesse mesmo ano. Conclusões. Se faz necessária uma estratégia que fomente o desenvolvimento e fortalecimento do tecido empresarial competitivo para gerar uma cultura do empreendimento, a prospectiva e a atitude de empresário dos cidadãos.

Rendimiento de la memoria prospectiva en personas mayores, adultos y jóvenes / Prospective memory performance in older people, adults and youth / Rendimento da memória prospectiva em idosos, adultos e jovens

La finalidad del presente trabajo fue comprobar las diferencias que pudieran existir en Memoria Prospectiva (MP) entre jóvenes, adultos y personas mayores; analizar las relaciones existentes entre variables de comprensión y fluidez verbal y la MP; y verificar la existencia de relaciones entre la percepción subjetiva del estado de salud y el rendimiento de la MP. A través de un diseño transversal, se trabajó con 270 participantes distribuidos en tres grupos de edad: jóvenes de 18 a 28 años; adultos de 45 a 55, y personas mayores de 60 a 80. Se evaluó a los participantes en relación con sus aptitudes de comprensión y fluidez verbal, así como en la percepción subjetiva de su estado de salud. Posteriormente se realizó un experimento donde se les presentaron párrafos de tres frases en la pantalla del computador y ellos tenían que reconocer palabras previamente acordadas, que indicarían su nivel de MP. Los resultados permitieron confirmar diferencias significativas en memoria prospectiva entre mayores y jóvenes. Sin embargo, no se encontraron diferencias entre jóvenes y adultos. Se detectó la importancia de las aptitudes verbales y la influencia de la percepción subjetiva del estado de salud para tener un mejor rendimiento en estas tareas de laboratorio de MP.

The aims of this study were to verify the potential differences in prospective memory (PM) among young people, adults and the elderly; analyze the relationships between variables of comprehension and verbal fluency and PM; and finally, verify the existence of a relationship between self-reported health status and performance on PM. A cross- sectional design was used. The study involved 270 participants divided into three age groups: young people aged 18 to 28 years; adults 45 to 55, and seniors 60 to 80. Their comprehension and verbal fluency skills were assessed as well as their self-perceived health status. Subsequently, an experiment was carried out where participants were presented with paragraphs of three sentences on a computer screen and they had to recognize previously agreed words that would indicate their level of MP. The results established significant differences in prospective memory between adults and older people and between young people and the elderly. But no differences between youth and adults were found..The importance of verbal comprehension and verbal fluency in solving prospective memory experimental tasks was also significant. In addition, a better self-perception of well-being was linked to a higher performance in PM.

A finalidade do presente trabalho foi comprovar as diferenças que puderam existir na Memória Prospectiva (MP) entre jovens, adultos e idosos; analisar as relações existentes entre variáveis de compreensão e fluência verbal e a MP; e verificar a existência de relações entre a percepção subjetiva do estado de saúde e o rendimento da MP. Através de um desenho transversal, se trabalhou com 270 participantes distribuídos em três grupos de idade: jovens de 18 a 28 anos; adultos de 45 a 55, e idosos de 60 a 80. Avaliaram-se os participantes em relação com suas aptidões de compreensão e fluência verbal, assim como na percepção subjetiva de seu estado de saúde. Posteriormente realizou-se um experimento onde foram apresentados parágrafos de três frases na tela do computador e eles tinham que reconhecer palavras previamente lembradas, que indicariam seu nível de MP. Los resultados permitiram confirmar diferencias significativas em memória prospectiva entre idosos e jovens. Porém, não se encontraram diferenças entre jovens e adultos. Detectou-se a importância das aptidões verbais e a influencia de a percepção subjetiva do estado de saúde para ter um melhor rendimento nestas tarefas de laboratório de MP.

Plan prospectivo para el desarrollo agrario en las regiones colombianas a partir del posconflicto al año 2025 / Prospective plan for the agricultural development in the Colombian regions starting from the post-conflict up to the year 2025

El presente texto derivado de investigación, presenta los resultados del análisis prospectivo para el desarrollo agrario de las regiones colombianas, de cara a un posible acuerdo fruto de las actuales (2014) negociaciones de Paz entre la guerrilla de las Farc-EP y el Gobierno Colombiano, acuerdo que de firmarse permitiría a la sociedad Colombiana entrar en lo que por ahora se ha denominado posconflicto. En este texto se proyectan posibles escenarios al año 2025; nos planteamos 4 posibles escenarios, dos alternos identificados como: Bienestar a Media y Sobreviviendo, un escenario catastrófico denominado Pobreza Absoluta y nuestro escenario apuesta: Paz y Prosperidad.

The current text, which was derived from research, introduces t he results of the prospective analysis for the agricultural development in the Colombian regions, with a view of a possible agreement, as a result of the current (2014) peace negotiations between the FARC-EP guerrilla forces and the Colombian government, an agreement which, in the event of its being signed, would let the Colombian society enter into what by now has been called post-conflict. In this text, some possible scenarios are projected to the year 2025; four possible scenarios, two alternate ones, which are identified as: Average Welfare and Surviving, a catastrophic scenario known asAbsolute Poverty, and our bet stage: Peace and Prosperity.

Modelos Explicativos da Memória Prospectiva: Uma Revisão Teórica / Explanatory Models of Prospective Memory: A Theoretical Review

Neste artigo é apresentada uma revisão da literatura sobre os mecanismos cognitivos associados à memória prospectiva, organizados de acordo com a divisão das diferentes fases da recordação prospectiva (i.e., codificação, retenção e recuperação). Inicialmente, é apresentada a diversidade de dados da investigação que sustentam diferentes abordagens explicativas do fenômeno de recuperação de intenções, considerando a natureza automática ou estratégica da memória prospectiva. Em seguida, são salientadas as potenciais explicações sobre os mecanismos presentes durante o intervalo de retenção e na fase de codificação.

This article presents a review of the literature concerning the cognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory, organized according to the division of the different phases of this phenomenon (i.e., encoding, retention and retrieval). Initially, a variety of research data is presented supporting different explanatory approaches of the phenomenon of intended actions, namely their automatic and strategic processes. Also some potential explanations are presented about the mechanisms in effect during the retention interval and the encoding phase.

Prospectivas éticas en el horizonte de la responsabilidad: alcances y límites de la sugestiva visión de Hans Jonas

La responsabilidad hoy es frente al progreso y los sueños de la primera Modernidad; más que una necesidad imperativa, es una urgencia axiológica. Con todos los recursos teóricos que ofrece el principio de responsabilidad de Hans Jonas, se requiere, además, un alcance prospectivo, es decir, una previsión ética que ejerza no solo una crítica de los valores sociales y políticamente dominantes sino que vincule todos los agentes del desarrollo y las fuerzas culturales de transformación.

Responsibility today is towards the progress and the dreams of the first Modernity. More than an imperative necessity, it is an axiological urgency. With all of the theoretical resources provided by Hans Jonas' principle of responsibility a prospective scope is also required, and this means an ethical prevision that not only criticizes social and politically dominant values, but also involves all of the development agents and the cultural forces of transformation.

A responsabilidade hoje é frente ao progresso e os sonhos da primeira Modernidade; mais do que uma necessidade imperativa, é uma urgência axiológica. Com todos os recursos teóricos que oferece o princípio de responsabilidade de Hans Jonas, requerse, ademais, um alcance prospectivo, isto é, uma previsão ética que exerça não só uma crítica dos valores sociais e politicamente dominantes senão que vincule todos os agentes do desenvolvimento e as forças culturais de transformação.

Construcción colectiva de políticas públicas para el desarrollo humano sostenible / Collective contrruction of public policies for sustainable human development

El trabajo es resultado de un proceso prospectivo y estratégico de acompañamiento y empoderamiento local en 10 municipios de Norte de Santander, tendiente a identificar sus ventajas comparativas y proponer su transformación en ventajas competitivas, para formular visiones subregionales de desarrollo humano sostenible, bajo criterios participativos e incluyentes de grupos tradicionalmente segregados, como mujeres y jóvenes, mediante las cuales se puedan configurar espacios de integración subregional para asegurar un desarrollo endógeno y sinérgico del territorio.

The work is the result of a support and local empowerment prospective and strategic process in 10 municipalities of Norte de Santander, aimed to the identification of their comparative advantages and the proposal of their transformation into competitive advantages in order to formulate sustainable human development sub-regional visions under participatory and inclusive criteria of traditionally segregated groups such as women and youth, through which sub-regional integration spaces to ensure an endogenous and synergistic development of the territory can be possible to configure.

Integración territorial de Palestina caldas a través de los macroproyectos de importancia regional / Territorial iteggration in Palestina, caldas trhough macroprojects of regional imprrtance

El desarrollo de estrategias y mecanismos para la integración territorial es de gran importancia para el municipio de Palestina y otros similares que ostentan la categoría más baja dentro de la clasificación municipal, condicionada por algunas características de desarticulación física y funcional en el territorio. Asimismo, es relevante y extrapolable a otros municipios que han sido objeto de la implantación de macroproyectos de importancia regional, sin la planeación adecuada, ni una articulación al contexto y a las características municipales. La primera contribución de esta investigación consiste en la elaboración de la caracterización regional del territorio y de la unidad de análisis, desde las dimensiones del desarrollo y sus atributos, estableciendo los desequilibrios en la ocupación del territorio, pero también sus potencialidades y oportunidades de desarrollo. Posteriormente se establecen los escenarios prospectivos posibles para el territorio analizado, desde la espacialización de los determinantes de ordenamiento territorial que en la actualidad orientan los usos del suelo y su confrontación con las perspectivas generales de desarrollo y se determinan los escenarios propuestos, los cuales simulan una forma de ocupación de las áreas de expansión de la microrregión, considerando las oportunidades, posibilidades y limitantes que genera el establecimiento de los macroproyectos. Seguidamente se establecen las líneas de acción derivadas de los escenarios prospectivos y la construcción de los macroproyectos con incidencia subregional, micro-regional y municipal, en los modelos de ocupación territoriales, desequilibrios regionales, usos del suelo, conectividad vial, reconversión de usos y solución de déficits, recuperación de áreas ambientalmente sensibles, relocalización de asentamientos y en la articulación modal, entre otros factores. Por último se formulan los lineamientos de política y objetivos que permitirán el desarrollo de un proyecto de ciudad, dirigidos a influir profundamente en la red urbano regional, promoviendo la adopción de los modelos de desarrollo sostenible, endógeno, local y regional, enfoques que originen de manera específica y en forma complementaria, modelos centrados en logros cualitativos como la urbanización compacta, variada, multipolar, equilibrada, limpia y eficiente energéticamente.

Developing strategies and mechanisms for regional integration is of great importance to the municipality of Palestina and other similar municipalities which hold the lowest category in the municipal influenced classification becaue of some physical and functional disruption characteristics in the territory. It is also relevant and applicable to other municipalities where large scale projects of regional importance, have been implementing without either proper planning or an articulation with the context and municipal characteristics. The first contribution of this research is the development of the regional characterization of the territory and the unit of analysis, from the dimensions of development and its attributes, and setting the imbalances in land use, but also its potential and development opportunities. Subsequently, the possible prospective scenarios for the analyzed area are established from the spatial determinants of land that currently guide land use and its confrontation with the overall development perspectives and the proposed scenarios are determined, which simulate a form of occupation of the mirco-region expansion areas, considering the opportunities, possibilities and constraints generated by the establishment of the macro projects. Afterwards, the lines of action arising from the prospective scenarios and the construction of the macroprojects with a sub-regional, microregional and municipal impact in the models of territorial occupation, regional imbalance, land use, road connectivity, use conversion and deficits solution, recovery of environmentally sensitive areas, relocation of settlements and modal articulation, among other factors, are established. Finally, the policy guidelines and objectives which allow the development of a city project are formulated, directed to influence profoundly the regional urban network, promoting the adoption of sustainable development models, endogenous, local and regional approaches that originate in an specific and complementary way originate, qualitative achievement centered models such as, varied, multi-polar, balanced, clean and energy efficient compact urbanization.

Tecnología y pensamiento futuro del trabajo desde la ergonomía en momentos de crisis global / Technology and future ways of thinking related to work from ergonomics points of views in moments of global crisis

Este artículo tiene como objeto explorar dos formas de pensamiento respecto a las condiciones futuras de trabajo, en relación con las crisis del trabajo de principios de siglo XXI. Estas dos formas de pensamiento futuro guiaron la investigación y apuntan a una tesis de acción donde las condiciones de trabajo futuro se esperan y una tesis de reacción donde las condiciones de trabajo futuras se construyen. Ahora bien, desde disciplinas como la sociología y la economía se han creado múltiples formas de ver al pasado tecnológico para reconstruirlo, pero, observar hacia el futuro requiere otro tipo de mirada. Disciplinas como la ingeniería y el diseño que trabajan sobre los estudios del futuro y el pensamiento futuro, permitieron empujar esta investigación, con el propósito de generar alternativas para el pensamiento.

Is it possible to establish (at short, medium and long term) future work conditions or expected work conditions for Colombian people considering upcoming work technologies? Is it possible to anticipate future work desirable work conditions for Colombian people in order to plan (foresee?) work technologies? These questions guided this research and they point to an action thesis and to a reaction one in this context of work crisis. Even though a work technology establishes where, when, how, who, who with, and using what element work is done, it also establishes certain work conditions. Besides, multiple forms of considering and deconstructing past have been created from many disciplines. However, in order to foresee or construct work technologies requires a different perspective for looking further. This research has been carried out considering other disciplines points of view regarding Future Studies and Future Thinking Studies. This research has the purpose of finding future paths for Future Thinking Studies from ergonomics point of view in this moment of global work crisis we are going through.

Accuracy of prospective memory tests in mild Alzheimer's disease / Acurácia dos testes de memória prospectiva na doença de Alzheimer leve

OBJECTIVES: To verify the accuracy of prospective memory (ProM) tests in Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: Twenty mild AD patients (CDR 1), and 20 controls underwent Digit Span (DS), Trail Making (TM) A and B, visual perception, Rey Auditory-Verbal Learning tests, and Cornell Scale for Depression. AD diagnosis was based on DSM-IV and NINCDS-ADRDA criteria. ProM was assessed with the appointment and belonging subtests of Rivermead Behavioral Memory Test (RBMT); and with two new tests (the clock and animal tests). RESULTS: AD patients had a worse performance than controls on the majority of tests, except DS forward and TM-A. There was no correlation between RBMT and the new ProM tests. As for accuracy, the only significant difference concerned the higher sensitivity of our animal test versus the RBMT belonging test. CONCLUSIONS: The clock and the animal tests showed similar specificity, but higher sensitivity than the RBMT subtests.

OBJETIVOS: Verificar a acurácia dos testes de memória prospectiva (MP) na doença de Alzheimer (DA). MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 20 pacientes com DA leve (CDR 1; diagnóstico baseado no DSM-IV e NINCDS-ADRDA) e 20 controles passaram pelos testes de dígitos, das trilhas A e B, de percepção visual, do aprendizado verbal de Rey e da Escala Cornell para Depressão. MP foi avaliada com os subtestes de compromisso e pertence do Teste de Memória Comportamental da Rivermead e dois novos testes (do relógio e dos animais). RESULTADOS: Os pacientes com doença de Alzheimer tiveram um desempenho inferior aos controles na maioria dos testes, exceto nos dígitos diretos e na trilha A. Não houve correlação entre os subtestes de Memória Comportamental da Rivermead e os novos testes de memória prospectiva. A única diferença quanto à acurácia foi que o teste dos animais teve maior sensibilidade que o do pertence da Rivermead. CONCLUSÕES: Os testes do relógio e dos animais mostraram similar especificidade, porém maior sensibilidade do que os subtestes da Rivermead.

Prospective memory in Alzheimers disease and mild cognitive impairment / Memória prospectiva na doença de Alzheimer e comprometimento cognitivo leve

Prospective memory (PM) is defined as remembering to carry out intended actions at an appropriate point in the future, and can be categorized into three types of situation: time-, event-, and activity-based tasks. PM involves brain structures such as frontal and medial temporal cortices. The aim of this study was to review the currently available literature on PM in Alzheimers disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment patients. We performed a search on Pubmed, Medline, ScieLO, LILACS and the Cochrane Library electronic databases from January 1990 to December 2010. The key terms used were: prospective memory, memory for intentions, delayed memory and memory for future actions, separately and also combined with the search terms dementia, Alzheimers disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment. Both patient groups showed significant impairment in PM. Further studies are needed to verify the accuracy of PM tasks as an early marker of mild cognitive impairment, and initial dementia.

Memória prospectiva (MP) é lembrar-se de completar ações intencionadas num ponto do futuro, pode ser categorizada em três tipos de situação: tarefas baseadas em tempo, evento e atividade. MP envolve estruturas cerebrais como córtices frontais e temporais mediais. Este artigo teve como objetivo revisar a literatura disponível de MP na doença de Alzheimer e Comprometimento Cognitivo Leve. Nós realizamos uma pesquisa nas bases de dados: Pubmed, Medline, ScieLO, LILACS e Cochrane Library electronic de janeiro de 1990 a dezembro de 2010. Os termos chave usados foram: prospective memory, memory for intentions, delayed memory e memory for future actions, combinados com os termos dementia, Alzheimers disease e Mild Cognitive Impairment. Os grupos de pacientes demonstraram comprometimento importante em tarefas de MP. Mais estudos são necessários para verificar a acurácia de tarefas de MP como um marcador precoce de comprometimento cognitivo leve e demência inicial.

The impact of poly drug use on several prospective memory measures in a sample of university students / Impacto del policonsumo de drogas sobre varias medidas de memoria prospectiva en una muestra de estudiantes universitarios

The prolonged consumption of drugs has been associated with neuropsychological and cognitive deficits. The most important deficits are associated with executive functions and memory problems, specifically with prospective memory (PM). This type of memory plays a central role in our daily life. However, there is a lack of studies on the effects of poly drug consumption on prospective memory. In this study we aim to discover to what extent the length and amount of estimated consumption of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and tranquilizers predicts the scores of self-reported prospective memory, and the scores on two objective tasks designed for this study. Measures included a Spanish version of the UEL Recreational Drug Use Questionnaire and the Prospective Memory Questionnaire, both with objective scores on two experimental tasks. The sample was composed of 164 participants (145 females and 19 males) aged 19- 36 (M = 19.85, SD = 2.21). Stepwise regression analysis showed that years of cannabis consumption explained 13% of self-reported long term PM deficits. Years of alcohol consumption explained 18.4% of total variance of self-rated internally-cued PM deficits. Years of alcohol consumption and estimated amount of alcohol together predicted 30.2% of variance of objective event-based PM tasks. The estimated amount of tobacco and tranquilizers consumption predicted 33.7% of the time-based PM task.

El consumo prolongado de drogas se ha asociado a déficit neuropsicológicos y cognitivos. Los déficits más importantes están asociados con las funciones ejecutivas y los problemas de memoria, y en concreto con la memoria prospectiva (MP). Este tipo de memoria juega un papel central en nuestra vida diaria. Sin embargo, faltan estudios sobre los efectos del policonsumo de drogas en la MP. En este estudio pretendemos conocer en qué medida los años desde el inicio de su consumo y la cantidad de consumo estimada de alcohol, tabaco, cannabis y tranquilizantes predicen las puntuaciones autoinformadas de memoria prospectiva y las puntuaciones objetivas en dos tareas experimentales diseñadas por nosotros. Entre las medidas se incluyeron una versión en español del UEL Recreational Drug Use Questionnaire, el Prospective Memory Questionnaire, junto con las puntuaciones objetivas en dos tareas experimentales. La muestra estuvo compuesta por 164 participantes (145 mujeres y 19 varones) con edades comprendidas entre los 19 y 36 años (M: 19.85 años, DE: 2.21). Los análisis de regresión por pasos mostraron que los años de consumo de cannabis explican un 13% de los problemas autoinformados de MP a largo plazo medidos con el PMQ. En el caso de los problemas autoinformados de MP con pistas internas, son los años de consumo de alcohol los que mayor porcentaje de la varianza explican (18.4%). Respecto a las tareas objetivas de MP, los años de consumo de alcohol y la cantidad estimada de alcohol predicen el 30.2% de la varianza de la tarea prospectiva de eventos. El 33.7% de la tarea de MP de tiempo era predicha por la cantidad estimada de consumo de tranquilizantes y de tabaco.