Seasonal variations of the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its markers using big-data of health check-ups

BACKGROUND@#It is crucial to understand the seasonal variation of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) for the detection and management of MetS. Previous studies have demonstrated the seasonal variations in MetS prevalence and its markers, but their methods are not robust. To clarify the concrete seasonal variations in the MetS prevalence and its markers, we utilized a powerful method called Seasonal Trend Decomposition Procedure based on LOESS (STL) and a big dataset of health checkups.@*METHODS@#A total of 1,819,214 records of health checkups (759,839 records for men and 1,059,375 records for women) between April 2012 and December 2017 were included in this study. We examined the seasonal variations in the MetS prevalence and its markers using 5 years and 9 months health checkup data and STL analysis. MetS markers consisted of waist circumference (WC), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), fasting plasma glucose (FPG).@*RESULTS@#We found that the MetS prevalence was high in winter and somewhat high in August. Among men, MetS prevalence was 2.64 ± 0.42 (mean ± SD) % higher in the highest month (January) than in the lowest month (June). Among women, MetS prevalence was 0.53 ± 0.24% higher in the highest month (January) than in the lowest month (June). Additionally, SBP, DBP, and HDL-C exhibited simple variations, being higher in winter and lower in summer, while WC, TG, and FPG displayed more complex variations.@*CONCLUSIONS@#This finding, complex seasonal variations of MetS prevalence, WC, TG, and FPG, could not be derived from previous studies using just the mean values in spring, summer, autumn and winter or the cosinor analysis. More attention should be paid to factors affecting seasonal variations of central obesity, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance.

Trend analysis of hemagglutinin and ovalbumin content for influenza virus split vaccines in 2021 / 中国生物制品学杂志

@#Objective To analyze the trend of the hemagglutinin(HA) and ovalbumin contents in the lot release of influenza virus split vaccines in 2021,and evaluate the quality and quality control level of the vaccines.Methods The HA and ovalbumin content data of influenza virus split vaccines from two domestic enterprises in 2021 were collected and collated. The mean value and standard deviation were calculated according to the first 40 batches of data of the enterprise in the year,and the warning limit and action limit were established. The trend analysis of the above indexes was carried out to evaluate the stability and consistency of the product quality of the enterprise. Statistical data comparison and consistency analysis were made between the test results of the batch inspected by the lot release institution and the results of the enterprise.Results Through the retrospective data analysis of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccines from two vaccine enterprises A and B,it was found that the content of H1N1 subtype HA and ovalbumin in the two enterprises and the content of Bv HA in the B enterprise had out of trend(OOT)situations,while the trend of other items was stable. The results of paired student's t test or Wilcoxon signed-rank test of the samples inspected by the lot release institution showed that except Bv subtype HA(t = 1. 094 and 0. 742 respectively)and ovalbumin(w =-64 and 36 respectively)contents showed no statistically significant difference(P > 0. 05),the HA contents of H1N1(t = 3. 862,w = 232),H3N2(t = 8. 225 and3. 473 respectively)and By(t = 5. 616 and 4. 934 respectively)of the two enterprises had significant differences(P <0. 05). The results of enterprises were generally higher than the lot release institution. Bland-Altman test analysis found that the consistency between the test data of enterprise A's HA content and the data of the lot release institution was better than that of enterprise B.Conclusion The stability and consistency of data trends of active ingredients and main impurity ingredients of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine batches in 2021 were generally good. The trend analysis can identify potential problems in vaccine production,and enterprises should carefully implement trend analysis and effectively monitor the product quality of vaccines.

Epidemiological trends and disease burden of lower gastrointestinal bleeding in children within 10 years / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To retrospectively analyze the epidemiological trend of children with lower gastrointestinal bleeding in recent 10 years,and investigate the change of their disease burden,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the accurate prevention and control of children's lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods A total of 671 children with "lower gastrointestinal bleeding" who were diagnosed in our hospital from 2012 to 2021 were collected as research subjects. To analyze the microscopic examination rate and common etiology of lower gastrointestinal bleeding in children in the past 10 years,as well as the epidemiological characteristics of different age groups, different regions and different basic diseases; Calculate and compare the rate of disability life lost (YLD), early death life lost (YLL) and disability adjusted life year (DALY) of children with lower gastrointestinal bleeding within 10 years, and calculate the annual change percentage (AAPC) to analyze the change trend of disease burden. Results The microscopic examination rate of children with lower gastrointestinal bleeding showed a trend of increasing in the past 10 years (P18 years old, hypertension and gastroenteritis. The DALY rate, YLL rate and YLD rate caused by lower gastrointestinal bleeding in the past 10 years showed an upward trend (P<0.05). Conclusion The microscopic examination rate of lower gastrointestinal bleeding in children was graduallyincreasing,and the prevalence rate of basic diseases such as boys,hypertension and gastroenteritis was increasing;in addition,the disease burden caused by children's lower gastrointestinal bleeding was also increasing year by year and should be protected.

Epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratoryinfectious diseases in Huzhou City / 预防医学

Objective @#To understand the epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2017 to 2022, so as to provide insights into formulation of respiratory infectious disease prevention and control strategies.@*Methods@#The data pertaining to notifiable respiratory infectious disease in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 were collected through the Infectious Disease Report Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious disease was analyzed using a descriptive epidemiological method.@*Results@#@*Conclusions@#A total of 31 314 cases of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases were reported in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022, with an average annual reported incidence of 169.12/105. The reported incidence of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 (P<0.05). The top six reported diseases in terms of case numbers were influenza (20 048 cases), tuberculosis (6 920 cases), COVID-19 (1 893 cases), mumps (1 413 cases), pertussis (475 cases) and scarlet fever (442 cases), accounting for 99.61% of the total cases. The incidence of influenza, COVID-19 and pertussis showed a tendency towards a rise, the incidence of mumps and tuberculosis showed a tendency towards a decline (all P<0.05), and scarlet fever remained at a low-level incidence (P>0.05). Respiratory infectious diseases were mainly reported in winter (January, February and December), with 14 644 cases accounting for 46.77%. There were 15 068 cases reported in schools and kindergartens, accounting for 48.12%. The incidence showed a U-shaped variation with age, with the highest incidence in residents at ages of 10 years and below (987.68/105), and showing a tendency towards a rise in residents at ages of 60 years and above. @*@#The incidence of respiratory infectious diseases in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 increased significantly. Influenza, tuberculosis, COVID-19, mumps and pertussis are key notifiable respiratory infectious diseases. Residents at ages of 10 years and below and 60 years and above should be given a high priority for respiratory infectious disease control.

Epidemiological trend analysis of liver cancer incidence in Luzhou City， Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2022 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016‒2022， and to provide a theoretical basis for improving liver cancer prevention and treatment strategies in Luzhou. MethodsData on liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016 to 2022 were collected， and the incidence rate， age-specific incidence rate， and annual percentage change （APC） were calculated. A Joinpoint regression model was used to fit a time series segment to the monthly number of new cases in each district and county of Luzhou to explore the trend of liver cancer incidence rate. ResultsThe incidence rate of liver cancer in Luzhou increased from 22.96/105 in 2016 to 32.31/105 in 2022. The incidence rate of liver cancer in men was higher than that in women in both 2016 and 2022， and the incidence rate of liver cancer in men increased from 34.83/105 in 2016 to 47.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.3%； the incidence rate of liver cancer in women increased from 10.50/105 in 2016 to 15.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.0%， and the differences in the change trends were not statistically significant （P>0.05）.The incidence of liver cancer was low in the age group of 0‒<40 years from 2016 to 2022 and increased with age； the incidence of liver cancer in the age group of 55 years and above was increasing at an average annual rate of 16.4%. ConclusionThe overall incidence of liver cancer in Luzhou is on the rise， and the incidence of liver cancer in men is higher than that in women. Middle-aged and elderly men are the key population for liver cancer prevention and treatment， and liver cancer prevention and treatment should be carried out in a targeted manner， taking into account regional development differences.

Análise da tendência da mortalidade por causas externas em pessoas idosas no Brasil, 2000 a 2022 / Analysis of the trend of mortality from external causes in older adults in Brazil, 2000 to 2022

Resumo Objetivo analisar a tendência de mortalidade por causas externas em pessoas idosas no Brasil no intervalo temporal entre os anos 2000 e 2022 e identificar o perfil sociodemográfico de mortalidade. Método estudo ecológico de série temporal utilizando dados secundários, envolvendo a mortalidade em pessoas idosas por causas externas no Brasil, no período de 2000 a 2022. Os dados foram coletados a partir das bases de dados do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, das estimativas da população residente e de dados populacionais censitários disponibilizados pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. A frequência absoluta e relativa dos dados foi analisada a partir do software Excel 2010. As análises das tendências das taxas de mortalidade e regressão linear segmentada foram realizadas por meio do Joinpoint, com significância estatística avaliada por meio do teste de Monte Carl Resultados No período investigado, foram identificados 572.608 óbitos por causas externas em pessoas idosas com 60 anos ou mais. Em relação ao comportamento da mortalidade por causas externas em pessoas idosas, observou-se tendência de aumento nas taxas de mortalidade na maior parte do período estudado (2000 a 2013) com uma variação percentual anual (VPA: 1,86; IC95%: 1,5-2,2). Conclusão os resultados indicam uma tendência de crescimento da mortalidade de pessoas idosas por causas externas, refletindo a necessidade de priorização de políticas públicas que intervenham sobre esse evento.

Abstract Objective To analyze the trend of mortality due to external causes in older adults in Brazil within the temporal interval spanning from 2000 to 2022 and to identify the sociodemographic profile of mortality. Method Ecological time-series study utilizing secondary data, encompassing mortality in older adults due to external causes in Brazil, spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. The data were collected from the databases of the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System, population estimates, and census population data provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The absolute and relative frequency of the data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2010 software. The analysis of trends in mortality rates and segmented linear regression was conducted using Joinpoint, with statistical significance assessed through the Monte Carlo test. Results During the investigated period, 572,608 deaths due to external causes were identified in individuals aged 60 years or older. Regarding the mortality pattern due to external causes in older adults, an increasing trend in mortality rates was observed for the majority of the studied period (2000 to 2013) with an annual percent change (APC) of 1.86 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2). Conclusion The results indicate a growing trend in mortality among older individuals due to external causes, highlighting the need for prioritizing public policies that address this issue.

Trends on deaths from acute pesticide poisoning in Mexico, 2000-2021 / Tendências das mortes por intoxicação aguda por pesticidas no México, 2000-2021

ABSTRACT Objetive: To provide a comprehensive analysis of mortality trends from acute pesticide poisoning in Mexico from 2000 through 2021. Methods: The governmental records of deaths from acute pesticide poisoning were used. The age-standardized years of life lost and aged-standardized mortality rates were estimated. Significant changes in trends of annual percentage change were identified using Joinpoint regression. Results: Between 2000 and 2021, mortality was primarily observed in individuals aged 15 to 19 years. Males were the most affected. Self-inflicted pesticide poisoning was the primary registered reason for death. The age-standardized mortality rate from acute pesticide poisoning was reduced from 2012 to 2021 (APC: -4.4; p=0.003). Conclusion: This report is the first study about the mortality rate from acute pesticide poisoning in Mexico. The results provided evidence to consider in developing laws to prevent acute pesticide poisoning.

RESUMO Objetivo: Fornecer uma análise abrangente das tendências de mortalidade por envenenamento agudo por pesticidas no México de 2000 a 2021. Métodos: Foram usados os registros governamentais de mortes por envenenamento agudo por pesticidas. Foram estimados os anos de vida perdidos estandardizados por idade e as taxas de mortalidade estandardizados por idade. Modificações significativas nas tendências de variação percentual anual foram identificadas usando a regressão Joinpoint. Resultados: Entre 2000 e 2021, a mortalidade foi observada principalmente em indivíduos na faixa etária de 15 a 19 anos. Os homens foram os mais afetados. O envenenamento por pesticida autoinfligido foi o principal motivo de morte registrado. A taxa de mortalidade estandardizada por idade por intoxicação aguda por pesticidas foi reduzida de 2012 a 2021 (Annual Percent Change — APC: -4,4; p=0,003). Conclusão: Este relatório é o primeiro estudo sobre a taxa de mortalidade por intoxicação aguda por pesticidas no México. Os resultados forneceram evidências a serem consideradas no desenvolvimento de leis para prevenir o envenenamento agudo por pesticidas.

Factores sociodemográficos en la dinámica del comportamiento delictivo: análisis descriptivo de criminalidad en Colombia, año 2022 / Socio-demographic factors in the dynamics of criminal behaviour: descriptive analysis of criminality in Colombia, year 2022 / Fatores sociodemográficos na dinâmica do comportamento criminal: análise descritiva da criminalidade na Colômbia, ano de 2022

El presente estudio de carácter descriptivo y analítico tiene como objetivo principal presentar el comportamiento criminal en Colombia para el 2022, desde un enfoque cuantitativo empleado para la extracción, análisis e interpretación de los registros administrativos del Sistema de Información Estadístico, Delincuencial, Contravencional y Operativo (SIEDCO), constituyéndose como un insumo para aquellos interesados en el estudio de la dinámica criminal, así como para quienes se encargan de diseñar estrategias para la contención del delito y la generación de política pública en materia de seguridad. En este sentido y en el marco de las dinámicas sociodemográficas, en una primera parte se aborda de manera general el proceso de homogenización de los registros administrativos llevado a cabo por la Policía Nacional y la Fiscalía General de la Nación. Y en una segunda parte, con especial énfasis en el homicidio intencional, se presenta el análisis de la información que permitió identificar las principales variables que influyen en la comisión del delito, de acuerdo con las cifras contenidas en el SIEDCO, en el periodo comprendido entre el 1 de enero y el 31 de diciembre de 2022, comparado con la misma temporalidad del 2021, en el que se detallan los delitos que afectan la integridad personal y el patrimonio económico de quienes habitan el territorio colombiano; se hallaron incrementos considerables en estos y se resaltan los factores de oportunidad para su comisión, situación contraria a la que se evidenció sobre las afectaciones a la vida y la integridad, conjunto de conductas que, según lo registrado, decrecieron en el periodo analizado. Finalmente, se ofrece un aporte a la contención desde la actividad de policía y una serie de conclusiones que permitan ampliar la visión sobre los diversos fenómenos y enriquecer la generación de conocimiento en el campo de la criminología.

The main objective of this descriptive and analytical study is to present criminal behaviour in Colombia for 2022, from a quantitative approach used for the extraction, analysis and interpretation of the administrative records of the Statistical, Criminal, Contraventional and Operational Information System (SIEDCO), constituting an input for those interested in the study of criminal dynamics, as well as for those responsible for designing strategies for the containment of crime and the generation of public policy on security. In this sense, and within the framework of socio-demographic dynamics, the first part of the paper deals in a general way with the process of homogenisation of administrative records carried out by the National Police and the Attorney General's Office. The second part, with special emphasis on intentional homicide, presents the analysis of the information that made it possible to identify the main variables that influence the commission of the crime, according to the figures contained in SIEDCO, in the period between 1 January and 31 December 2022, compared with the same period in 2021, in which the crimes that affect the personal integrity and economic patrimony of those who live in Colombian territory are detailed; considerable increases were found in these and the factors of opportunity for their commission are highlighted, contrary to the situation that was evidenced in the affectations to life and integrity, a group of conducts that, according to what was recorded, decreased in the period analysed. Finally, we offer a contribution to containment from the police activity and a series of conclusions that allow us to broaden the vision of the diverse phenomena and enrich the generation of knowledge in the field of criminology.

O principal objetivo deste estudo descritivo e analítico é apresentar o comportamento criminal na Colômbia para 2022, a partir de uma abordagem quantitativa utilizada para a extração, análise e interpretação dos registros administrativos do Sistema de Informação Estatística, Criminal, Contravencional e Operacional (SIEDCO), constituindo um insumo para os interessados no estudo da dinâmica criminal, bem como para os responsáveis pela elaboração de estratégias para a contenção do crime e a geração de políticas públicas de segurança. Nesse sentido, e dentro da estrutura da dinâmica sociodemográfica, a primeira parte do artigo trata de forma geral do processo de homogeneização dos registros administrativos realizado pela Polícia Nacional e pela Procuradoria Geral da República. A segunda parte, com ênfase especial no homicídio doloso, apresenta a análise das informações que permitiram identificar as principais variáveis que influenciam o cometimento do crime, de acordo com os números contidos no SIEDCO, no período entre 1º de janeiro e 31 de dezembro de 2022, em comparação com o mesmo período de 2021, no qual são detalhados os crimes que afetam a integridade pessoal e o patrimônio econômico daqueles que vivem em território colombiano; Neles foram encontrados aumentos consideráveis e são destacados os fatores de oportunidade para seu cometimento, ao contrário da situação que se evidenciou nas afetações à vida e à integridade, grupo de condutas que, segundo o que foi registrado, diminuiu no período analisado. Finalmente, oferecemos uma contribuição para a contenção da atividade policial e uma série de conclusões que nos permitem ampliar a visão dos diversos fenômenos e enriquecer a geração de conhecimento no campo da criminologia.

Distribución espacial y tendencia secular (1991-2014) de nacidos pequeños para la edad gestacional en Jujuy / Spatial distribution and secular trend (1991­2014) of small for gestational age infants born in Jujuy

Introducción. El feto que no alcanza el potencial de crecimiento esperado en el útero se considera pequeño para la edad gestacional (PEG). Esta restricción depende de factores genéticos y/o ambientales; la altura geográfica es uno muy relevante. Este trabajo analiza la distribución espacial de las prevalencias de PEG y su tendencia secular en Jujuy (1991-2014). Materiales y métodos. Se analizaron los registros de 308 469 nacidos vivos de Jujuy (Dirección de Estadísticas e Información de Salud). Se estimaron prevalencias de PEG (peso/edad gestacional

Introduction. A fetus that does not reach the expected growth potential in utero is considered small for gestational age (SGA). Such restriction depends on genetic and/or environmental factors, being altitude a very relevant factor. This study analyzes the spatial distribution of the prevalence of SGA and its secular trend in Jujuy (1991­2014). Materials and methods. The records of 308 469 live births in Jujuy (Health Statistics and Information Department) were analyzed. The prevalence of SGA (weight/gestational age < P10 and < P3) was estimated for sex according to the INTERGROWTH-21 st standard in the ecoregions of Jujuy (Valle and Ramal ­less than 2000 MASL­, Puna, and Quebrada) across 3 periods (1991­2000, 2001­2009, 2010­2014) and proportions were compared. The secular trend was assessed using the Joinpoint regression analysis. Results. The overall prevalence of SGA was 2.3% (< P3) and 7% (< P10). Significantly higher values were observed in Puna and Quebrada in both SGA categories and across all periods. Only in Valle, significant differences were observed between sexes across all periods. The prevalence of SGA showed a significant downward secular trend at a provincial and regional level, and this was greater in Quebrada (5.2% < P3 and 3.5% < P10). Conclusions. A consistent and significant decrease in the prevalence of SGA has been observed since the 1990s in Jujuy, where altitude is itself a determining factor of size at birth, since the Puna and Quebrada regions showed the highest prevalence of SGA during the entire period.

Three years of COVID-19 pandemic: comparative analysis of incidence, lethality and mortality among the States of the south region of Brazil / Três anos de pandemia da COVID-19: análise comparativa da incidência, letalidade e mortalidade entre os Estados da região sul do Brasi

Introduction: the first COVID-19 case in Brazil was confirmed on February 26, 2020. As of March 17, 2023, the Ministry of Health reported 699,634 deaths from COVID-19, with a case fatality rate of 1.9%. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil extends to socioeconomic and healthcare systems, reflecting significant regional disparities. Objective: To analyze mortality, incidence, and case fatality rates for COVID-19 in the states of Paraná and Santa Catarina, in the southern region of Brazil. Methods: This is an ecological time-series study using official Brazilian secondary data for COVID-19 cases and deaths. Data were extracted from the dashboard of the State Health Department of Santa Catarina and Paraná. Temporal series were developed for trend analysis using the Prais-Winsten regression model. Statistical analyses were performed using STATA 14.0 software (College Station, TX, USA, 2013). Results: In the analysis of rates over the entire period, trends for mortality, case fatality, and incidence in the state of Santa Catarina are decreasing, decreasing, and stationary, respectively. In Paraná, rates over the entire period showed a stationary trend for mortality, decreasing for case fatality, and increasing for incidence. Conclusion: COVID-19 had a devastating effect on the states of Santa Catarina and Paraná. Both states experienced the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic, with higher case fatality and mortality rates observed in Paraná, while Santa Catarina had a higher incidence rate over the three years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The predictive effect of ARIMA model for occupational pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province / 中国职业医学

Objective: To verify the accuracy of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in predicting the incidence of occupational pneumoconiosis (hereinafter referred as pneumoconiosis) and to predict the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province in the next five years. Methods: A follow-up survey was performed to collect data on pneumoconiosis patients reported in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2021. Collected data from 1956 to 2016 were used as the training set to build an ARIMA model. Collected data from 2017 to 2021 were used as the prediction set to evaluate the predicting result of the ARIMA model. The ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province in next five years. Results: The ARIMA (1,1,2) model was set up after model identification and order estimation. The model was used to predict the prediction set, and its result was good. The ARIMA result and actual values in 2021 were 213 and 210 cases, respectively, with a difference of only three cases. The number of pneumoconiosis cases predicted using the ARIMA model in Guangdong Province from 2022 to 2026 was 214, 204, 202, 194, and 191 cases, respectively, showing a trend of low-level prevalence. Conclusion: The ARIMA model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting pneumoconiosis incidence over a long period of time and with large sample sizes. The forecast results of the ARIMA(1,1,2) model indicate that the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province will be around 200 cases in the next five years, indicating a low-level prevalence.

Current status changing trend and influencing factors of pancreatic cancer disease burden in Chengde of Hebei Province in 2010 - 2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the disease burden status, trends and possible influencing factors of pancreatic cancer in Chengde of Hebei from 2010 to 2020, in order to provide theoretical basis for the preventionof pancreatic cancer. Methods Using the global burden of disease open database, the incidence rate, mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years of life lost with disability (YLD) and disability adjusted life year (DALY) of pancreatic cancer in the region are obtained,average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated using joinpoint model to test the trend of disease burden change of pancreatic cancer patients from 2010 to 2020. At the same time, the patient characteristics such as hypertension, diabetes and other categorical variables were set as dummy variables, and the risk factors affecting the mortality of patients with pancreatic cancer were analyzed by linear regression. Results In 2010, there were 15 new cases of pancreatic cancer and 13 deaths in Chengde District , Hebei Province. The YLLs caused by pancreatic cancer accounted for 70.67% of DALY. In 2020, there were 160 new cases of pancreatic cancer and 147 deaths in Chengde, Hebei Province. The YLLs caused by pancreatic cancer accounted for 96.02% of DALY. From 2010 to 2020, the incidence of pancreatic cancer increased by 9.79%, and the incidence rate increased by 7.81%, showing an obvious upward trend (APCC =2.20%, P 28.0 and pancreatitis (OR=1.574 , 95% CI: 1.328-3.045) were all risk factors for death of patients with pancreatic cancer (OR>1) . Conclusion From 2010 to 2020, the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer among local residents in Chengde of Hebei showed an upward trend, and the disease burden was also increasing year by year. The basic diseases of diabetes and chronic pancreatitis increase the death risk and should be protected.

Analysis of the role of molecular diagnostic technology in improving the bacteriological diagnostic rate of tuberculosis / 中华传染病杂志

Objective:To analyze the relevant factors of bacteriological diagnosis rate in pulmonary tuberculosis in Zhejiang Province, and to provide basis for the control of tuberculosis.Methods:The results of etiology detection of pulmonary tuberculosis in Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2020 were collected from the China Tuberculosis Information Management System. Positive detection of etiology of pulmonary tuberculosis cases was analyzed. Joinpoint regression model was constructed to evaluate the annual trend of the positive rate of etiology, and linear regression model was used to analyze the influence of new diagnostic technology on the positive detection rate of etiology in smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis cases.Results:From 2015 to 2020, the positive rate of etiology of pulmonary tuberculosis in Zhejiang Province increased from 38.66%(10 588/27 385) to 64.12%(14 275/22 262), with an average annual growth rate of 8.80%. All of the 11 prefecture cities in Zhejiang Province showed an increasing trend of the positive rate of etiology. The average annual growth rates in Wenzhou City and Lishui City were 10.27% and 11.21%, respectively, and the positive rates of etiology in Jinhua City and Lishui City were 70.13%(2 007/2 862) and 73.34%(707/964) in 2020, respectively. From 2015 to 2020, smear-negative cases accounted for 61.66%(92 935/150 733) in Zhejiang Province, and the further detection rate by culture and molecular test increased from 0.13%(22/16 650) to 84.74%(11 384/13 434). The positive rate of bacteriological tests in smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis patients increased from 0.04%(6/16 650) to 41.28%(5 546/13 434). If the culture and molecular detection rate increased to 100.00%, the linear regression model predicted positive rate of etiology could increase to 44.20%. Thus, the positive rate of etiology of pulmonary tuberculosis in Zhejiang Province would reach 66.00%. Up to 2020, 95.56%(86/90) and 92.22%(83/90) of tuberculosis designated hospitals were equipped with molecular and liquid diagnostic equipments, respectively, and the detection positive rates of molecular and liquid diagnostics in the etiology positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases were 71.24%(10 169/14 275) and 53.44%(7 629/14 275), respectively.Conclusions:The implementation and promotion of the new diagnostic techniques for tuberculosis, especially the molecular diagnostic techniques, could significantly improve the positive rate of etiology of pulmonary tuberculosis etiology. Methods and strategies of etiological diagnosis of tuberculosis should be paid more attention in prevention and control of tuberculosis.

Current situation and changing trends of human brucellosis in Menyuan Hui Autonomous County, Qinghai Province, 2013-2020 / 中华地方病学杂志

Objective:To learn about the epidemic situation and trend of human brucellosis in Menyuan Hui Autonomous County (referred to as Menyuan County) of Qinghai Province, and to provide reference for formulating brucellosis prevention and control measures in Menyuan County.Methods:Data on human brucellosis in Menyuan County reported by the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of China Disease Control and Prevention Information System from 2013 to 2020 were collected and analyzed by descriptive epidemiological analysis (three distribution).Results:A total of 186 cases of brucellosis were confirmed from 2013 to 2020, with an average annual incidence of 14.553/100 000. The annual incidence rate was increasing year by year(χ 2trend = 22.08, P = 0.002). The cases were distributed in 67 villages of 12 towns; cases were more common in the age group of 15-< 65 years old (96.24%, 179/186), and there were more men than women cases (sex ratio was 3.89∶1.00, 148/38). Conclusions:The incidence rate of brucellosis cases in Menyuan County is increasing year by year, and the scope of its impact is constantly expanding. A multi-sectoral joint prevention and control mechanism should be established to strengthen management, increase the prevention and control of brucellosis, and stop the spread of the epidemic to surrounding counties and cities.

Visualization research on research hotspots and development trends of ideological and political education of medical courses / 中华医学教育探索杂志

Objective:To explore the research hotspot and development trend of ideological and political education of medical courses , analyze the existing problem, and provide a reference for the future development of ideological and political education of medical courses.Methods:The CNKI database was searched for the literature on ideological and political education of medical courses included from 2017 to 2021. Excel and CiteSpace were used for visual analysis of the publication time, publication quantity, main authors, research institutions, keywords, and mutated words of 1 257 articles included in the study.Results:In recent five years, the number of articles on ideological and political education of medical courses was on the rise; Zhao Wenxing, Liu Ruiting, and Yang Hongmei published a relatively large number of papers, while Heze Medical College, Fujian Health College, and Shanghai University of Medicine & Health Sciences published a relatively large number of papers. Keywords with high frequency included "teaching reform, "biochemistry", and "ideological and political education". The keywords with strong mediating centrality included "practical teaching", "ideological and political course", "medical English", and "humanistic quality". The keywords with high mutation intensity included ideological and political education, ideological and political curriculum, and professional quality.Conclusion:The ideological and political education is currently a hotspot of medical education. The current research topics include teaching reform and teaching practice. Clarifying the logic of curriculum ideological and political evaluation and gradually building the evaluation system and mechanism of curriculum ideological and political evaluation will be a hot research topic in the future.

Analysis of the change trend of etiological burden of disease of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 / 中华消化外科杂志

Objective:To investigate the change trend of etiological burden of disease of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019.Methods:The descriptive epidemiologic method was conducted. Based on the Global Burden of Disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the data related to liver cancer burden caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, alcohol, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and other factors, including number of new cases, the crude incidence rate, age-specific incidence rate, number of deaths, crude mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate, in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The age-standardized rate was calculated based on the world standardized population structure in 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease data. Observation indicators: (1) the incidence of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (2) the mortality of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (3) the change trend of age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (4) the age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. Count data were expressed as absolute numbers, percentages and ratio. Based on the junction point regression model, the Joinpoint software (V.4.9.1.0) was used to calculate the annual percentage change, average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals ( CI) of age-specific incidence rate and age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies. Results:(1) The incidence of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the number of new cases of liver cancer in Chinese population decreased from 236 825 to 210 462, and the crude incidence rate decreased from 20.01/100,000 to 14.80/100,000. The new cases of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection and other factors showed a downward trend, and the absolute change rates were ?14.76%, ?3.98% and ?26.67%, respectively. The new cases of liver cancer caused by alcohol and NASH showed a increase trend, and the absolute change rates were 9.31% and 13.91%, respectively. (2) The mortality of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths of liver cancer in Chinese population decreased from 232 449 to 187 700, and the crude mortality rate decreased from 19.64/100,000 to 13.20/100,000. The number of deaths of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection and other factors showed a down-ward trend, and the absolute change rates were ?23.34%, ?10.99% and ?33.75%, respectively. The number of deaths of liver cancer caused by alcohol showed a slow downward trend, and the absolute change rate was ?0.51%. The number of deaths of liver cancer caused by NASH showed a increase trend, and the absolute change rate was 6.03%. (3) The change trend of age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection, alcohol, NASH and other factors was ?3.61%(95% CI as ?4.10% to ?3.11%), ?3.57%(95% CI as ?3.99% to ?3.14%), ?2.79%(95% CI as ?3.24% to ?2.33%), ?2.65%(95% CI as ?3.09% to ?2.21%) and ?3.62%(95% CI as ?4.05% to ?3.19%), respectively. (4) The age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection, alcohol, NASH and other factors was ?3.92%(95% CI as ?4.42% to ?3.41%), ?3.90%(95% CI as ?4.45% to ?3.35%), ?3.15%(95% CI as ?3.71% to ?2.58%), ?2.86%(95% CI as ?3.34% to ?2.38%) and ?4.09%(95% CI as ?4.64% to ?3.55%), respectively. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019, the liver cancer burden of the Chinese population shows an overall downward trend, in which the liver cancer burden caused by HBV and HCV infection decreases the most, but HBV and HCV infection is still the main reason for the heavy burden of liver cancer. The age-specific incidence rate and age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by alcohol and NASH show a downward trend, but the number of new cases of liver cancer caused by alcohol and NASH shows significant growth. The liver cancer burden caused by other factors shows a downward trend.

Status quo and hotspots in nursing studies on osteoporotic fracture care in China: a bibliometric analysis / 中国实用护理杂志

Objective:To learn about the research status of osteoporosis fracture care in China, explore the research hotspots and development trends and provide reference for further development.Methods:The online analysis function of CiteSpace software was used to conduct metrological and visual analysis on the literature related to the osteoporosis fracture care from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2021 in CNKI and Wanfang database.Results:A total of 2 915 articles were included and published. The number of articles published showed an overall upward trend. The institutions′ cooperation was not good, the key words were clustered as psychology, vertebral compression fracture, femur fracture, hip fracture, etc. The high intensity words were joint function, surgery, etc.Conclusion:Osteoporosis fracture care research continues to increase and expand in scope, but there is less cooperation between the institutions; the research hotspots of osteoporosis fracture care focus on clinical care paths, complication management, patient and caregiver psychology, etc.; future research trends mainly include osteoporosis fracture prevention, fracture liaison services, accelerated rehabilitation, multidisciplinary collaboration, etc

Variation trend of health related behaviors in the residents with chronic diseases in Huangpu District of Shanghai from 2014 to 2019 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo understand the changes of health related behaviors among residents with chronic diseases，and to provide a reference for targeted health intervention. MethodsBased on the surveillance data of chronic diseases and relevant risk factors of the residents in Huangpu District from 2014 to 2019. The study focused on health related behaviors and sociodemographic characteristics which was analyzed by chi-square test. The Cochran-Armitage trend chi-squared test was used to analyze the standardization rate. ResultsSeveral behaviors had been ameliorated such as the health examinations （Z=-3.667， P<0.001）， the measurement of blood glucose （Z=-5.793， P<0.001）， daily vegetables consumption （Z=-5.741， P<0.001）， daily animal food consumption （Z=-23.214， P<0.001）， daily physical activity （Z=-18.361， P<0.001）， sedentary behavior （Z=4.190， P<0.001）， and current smoking （Z=4.615， P<0.001）. ConclusionAn improving trend of health behaviors is found among Huangpu District residents．Targeted health education and health promotion should be carried out according to the characteristics of the population in the future.

Death and life loss of pancreatic cancer among residents in Yuyao from 2014 to 2021 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo determine the death level， change trend and life loss of pancreatic cancer among residents in Yuyao， and to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer. MethodsThe death monitoring data of registered residents in Yuyao from 2014 to 2021 were collected to calculate crude mortality rate（CMR）， standardized mortality rate （SMR）， potential years of life lost （PYLL）， average years of life lost （AYLL）， PYLL rate （PYLLR）， average annual percent change （AAPC） and other indicators. ResultsFrom 2014 to 2021， 860 cases of pancreatic cancer died in Yuyao， accounting for 6.25% of all malignant tumor deaths in the same period. The average annual mortality rate was 12.86/100 000， the age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population （ASRC） was 7.08/100 000， and the age-standardized rate by world Segi’s population （ASRW） was 5.17/100 1000. The CMR showed an upward trend in eight years （t=-5.076， P=0.002）. 493 men died of pancreatic cancer with an average annual mortality of 14.95/100 000， ASRC of 8.13/100 000， and ASRW was of 6.24/100 000. 367 women died of pancreatic cancer with an average annual mortality rate of 10.82/100 000， ASRC of 6.02/100 000， and ASRW of 4.14/100 000. The mortality rate of men was higher than that of women （χ2=22.191， P<0.001）. The minimum death age of pancreatic cancer is 27.52 years old， the maximum death age is 94.52 years old， and median age （Q1， Q2） of death was ［71.13（63.21， 78.87）］ years old. The death age of men ［69.61（62.30， 77.06）］ was less than that of women ［72.48（64.63， 81.09）］ （t=-3.820， P<0.001）. The mortality rate of pancreatic cancer showed an upward trend with age （χ2trend=1 110.844， P<0.001）， and the 75 year old mortality rate （75.58/100 000） fell after reaching the peak. PYLL caused by death of pancreatic cancer in 8 years was 9 775.00 person years， AYLL was 14.33 person years， and PYLLR was1.53‰. ConclusionPancreatic cancer is an important cause of death for residents in Yuyao， which has a huge loss of life. It is necessary to formulate targeted prevention and control strategies， with the middle-aged and elderly as the key population， to reduce the incidence and death of pancreatic cancer.

Analysis of epidemic trends and status of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemic trends and current status in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021， and to provide evidence for formulating and optimizing schistosomiasis control strategies in the province. MethodsEpidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021 were collected. The Joinpoint regression model was used to investigate the epidemic trends of schistosomiasis， and the annual average percent change （AAPC） was used to assess the changing trend of schistosomiasis infection in humans and bovines. SPSS 25.0 software was used to analyze the target achievement status， infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and the areas with snails in 2021 to evaluate the differences among various districts and epidemic regions. ResultsBy 2021， 24 counties （61.50%） in the province had achieved the elimination goal， with hilly and marsh counties reaching 82.60% and 31.30%， respectively. The seropositive rate of schistosomiasis in human was 3.51% across the province. However， the seropositive rate in marshland areas （4.77%） was significantly higher than that in hilly areas （1.23 %） （χ2=3 827.51， P<0.001）. The total area with snails in the province was 84 938.32 hm2， including 82 196.86 hm2 in marshland areas and 2 741.46 hm2 in hilly areas. From 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in the humans and bovines exhibited a declining trend， with AAPC values of -48.70 and -39.70， respectively. The decline rate in the hilly areas was higher than that in marshland areas. However， the area with snail showed an upward trend （AAPC=0.50）， with a growth rate of 5.80% in hilly areas， which was greater than that in marshland areas （0.40%）. ConclusionFrom 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and bovines in Jiangxi Province continued to decline， while the areas with snails increased. The prevention focus should still be on the marshland endemic areas， and attention should also be given to the risk of schistosomiasis in hilly endemic areas. Therefore， it is necessary to continue implementing a comprehensive prevention and control strategy that emphasizes controlling the sources of infection and adopts tailored measures based on local conditions and precise policies.