Curva epidémica para COVID-19 en Colombia (2020-2021) / Epidemic curve for COVID-19 in Colombia (2020-2021)

Introducción: el inicio de la pandemia inducida por el coronavirus SARS-CoV-2-COVID-19 generó la acción más importante de salud pública y de economía en todo el mundo. Objetivo: mostrar el comportamiento de la curva epidémica por COVID-19 en los años 2020 y 2021 en Colombia. Metodología: estudio transversal cuya información se obtuvo de la página web del Instituto Nacional de Salud de los reportes diarios de contagio por COVID-19. Resultados: se encontró en 2020 un punto máximo o meseta que se ubicó en la semana 26 con 209.284 casos y para 2021 también en la semana 26 con 209.284 casos. Conclusión: el hecho de contar con elementos estadísticos suficientes y confiables para establecer la etapa en la que se localiza la curva epidémica, tiene implicaciones directas sobre la toma de decisiones. Es importante aprovechar las oportunidades de corrección técnica que exigen los métodos y modelos epidemiológicos a partir de la experiencia internacional.

Introduction: the initial surge of the SARS-CoV-2-COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic generated the most important public health and economic global action. Objective: to show the behavior of the COVID-19 epidemic curve for years 2020 and 2021 in Colombia. Methodology: a cross-sectional study based on daily reports of COVID-19 cases registered in the National Institute of Health web page. Results: in 2020 a peak or plateau pattern was evidenced at week 26 with 209.284 cases. In 2021 there was a similar peak at week 26 with 209.284 cases. Conclusion: having sufficient and reliable statistical elements to plot the epidemic curve portraying the data, directly contributes to decision making. It is important to employ the available technical correction tools required by epidemiological methods and models, based on international experience.

COVID-19 epidemic curve in Brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. An ecological study

ABSTRACT Background: The epidemic curve has been obtained based on the 7-day moving average of the events. Although it facilitates the visualization of discrete variables, it does not allow the calculation of the absolute variation rate. Recently, we demonstrated that the polynomial interpolation method can be used to accurately calculate the daily acceleration of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. This study aimed to measure the diversity of epidemic curves and understand the importance of socioeconomic variables in the acceleration, peak cases, and deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazilian states. Methods: Epidemiological data for COVID-19 from federative units in Brazil were obtained from the Ministry of Health's website from February 25 to July 11, 2020. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (https://www.ibge.gov.br/). Using the polynomial interpolation methods, daily cases, deaths and acceleration were calculated. Moreover, the correlation coefficient between the epidemic curve data and socioeconomic data was determined. Results: The combination of daily data and case acceleration determined that Brazilian states were in different stages of the epidemic. Maximum case acceleration, peak of cases, maximum death acceleration, and peak of deaths were associated with the Gini index of the gross domestic product of Brazilian states and population density but did not correlate with the per capita gross domestic product of Brazilian states. Conclusions: Brazilian states showed heterogeneous data curves. Population density and socioeconomic inequality were correlated with a more rapid exponential growth in new cases and deaths.

Epidemic Curve of Covid-19 Cases after Lockdown in the Municipality of Belém, Pará State, Brazil

Objective: To describe the evolution of COVID-19 cases three weeks after the start of the lockdown in the municipality of Belém, State of Pará.Methodology:Descriptive-epidemiological study, quantitative approach. The reported cases of Covid-19 were collected and analyzed in the municipality of Belém, from May 28 to June 3, 2020, that is, three weeks after the decree that regulated the lockdown. Data were extracted from the websites of the state departments and the following variables were evaluated: gender, age group, city Results:It was identified that there were records of 92 confirmed cases and 19 deaths from coronavirus in the municipality. People aged 60 years or older were the ones who received the most confirmation of the disease and who also died the most. Women were predominant among confirmed cases and men among deaths.Conclusion:The present study consists of offering the academic environment reflections about the implementation of lockdown and how it reflects on the possible control of the increase of cases in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, based on the collection of epidemiological data of the disease, carried out in the municipality. For this, there was an increasing trend in the number of both confirmed cases and deaths. However, after the lockdown, it was possible to identify that the incidence remained in an isolation rate interval, without exponential growth, different from what was expected without the strategy. This contributes to the lower demand for care in health services and funeral homes