Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 using viral load data.
Epidemics
; 35: 100454, 2021 06.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1135321
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
The incubation period, or the time from infection to symptom onset, of COVID-19 has usually been estimated by using data collected through interviews with cases and their contacts. However, this estimation is influenced by uncertainty in the cases' recall of exposure time. We propose a novel method that uses viral load data collected over time since hospitalization, hindcasting the timing of infection with a mathematical model for viral dynamics. As an example, we used reported data on viral load for 30 hospitalized patients from multiple countries (Singapore, China, Germany, and Korea) and estimated the incubation period. The median, 2.5, and 97.5 percentiles of the incubation period were 5.85 days (95 % CI 5.05, 6.77), 2.65 days (2.04, 3.41), and 12.99 days (9.98, 16.79), respectively, which are comparable to the values estimated in previous studies. Using viral load to estimate the incubation period might be a useful approach, especially when it is impractical to directly observe the infection event.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Viral Load
/
Infectious Disease Incubation Period
/
COVID-19
Limits:
Adult
/
Humans
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Epidemics
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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