Population-Level Disparities in COVID-19: Measuring the Independent Association of the Proportion of Black Population on COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in US Counties.

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT There is a need to understand population race and ethnicity disparities in the context of sociodemographic risk factors in the US experience of the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: Determine the association between county-level proportion of non-Hispanic Black (NHB) on county COVID-19 case and death rates and observe how this association was influenced by county sociodemographic and health care infrastructure characteristics. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was an ecologic analysis of US counties as of September 20, 2020, that employed stepwise construction of linear and negative binomial regression models. The primary independent variable was the proportion of NHB population in the county. Covariates included county demographic composition, proportion uninsured, proportion living in crowded households, proportion living in poverty, population density, state testing rate, Primary Care Health Professional Shortage Area status, and hospital beds per 1000 population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes were exponentiated COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population and COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population. We produced county-level maps of the measures of interest. RESULTS: In total, 3044 of 3142 US counties were included. Bivariate relationships between the proportion of NHB in a county and county COVID-19 case (Exp ß = 1.026; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.024-1.028; P < .001) and death rates (rate ratio [RR] = 1.032; 95% CI, 1.029-1.035; P < .001) were not attenuated in fully adjusted models. The adjusted association between the proportion of NHB population in a county and county COVID-19 case was Exp ß = 1.025 (95% CI, 1.023-1.027; P < .001) and the association with county death rates was RR = 1.034 (95% CI, 1.031-1.038; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of NHB people in a county was positively associated with county COVID-19 case and death rates and did not change in models that accounted for other socioecologic and health care infrastructure characteristics that have been hypothesized to account for the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on racial and ethnic minority populations. Results can inform efforts to mitigate the impact of structural racism of COVID-19.