Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 4673, 2021 08 03.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1340997
ABSTRACT
Dynamically adapting the allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to the evolving epidemiological situation could be key to reduce COVID-19 burden. Here we developed a data-driven mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to explore optimal vaccine prioritization strategies in China. We found that a time-varying vaccination program (i.e., allocating vaccines to different target groups as the epidemic evolves) can be highly beneficial as it is capable of simultaneously achieving different objectives (e.g., minimizing the number of deaths and of infections). Our findings suggest that boosting the vaccination capacity up to 2.5 million first doses per day (0.17% rollout speed) or higher could greatly reduce COVID-19 burden, should a new wave start to unfold in China with reproduction number ≤1.5. The highest priority categories are consistent under a broad range of assumptions. Finally, a high vaccination capacity in the early phase of the vaccination campaign is key to achieve large gains of strategic prioritizations.
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Asignación de Recursos para la Atención de Salud
/
Vacunación Masiva
/
Vacunas contra la COVID-19
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio experimental
/
Estudio observacional
/
Ensayo controlado aleatorizado
Tópicos:
Vacunas
Límite:
Humanos
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Nat Commun
Asunto de la revista:
Biologia
/
Ciencia
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
S41467-021-24872-5
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