On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number.
Sci Rep
; 11(1): 23286, 2021 12 02.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1550344
ABSTRACT
The reproduction number of an infectious disease, such as CoViD-19, can be described through a modified version of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent contact rate, where mobility data are used as proxy of average movement trends and interpersonal distances. We introduce a theoretical framework to explain and predict changes in the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in terms of aggregated individual mobility and interpersonal proximity (alongside other epidemiological and environmental variables) during and after the lockdown period. We use an infection-age structured model described by a renewal equation. The model predicts the evolution of the reproduction number up to a week ahead of well-established estimates used in the literature. We show how lockdown policies, via reduction of proximity and mobility, reduce the impact of CoViD-19 and mitigate the risk of disease resurgence. We validate our theoretical framework using data from Google, Voxel51, Unacast, The CoViD-19 Mobility Data Network, and Analisi Distribuzione Aiuti.
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Número Básico de Reproducción
/
COVID-19
/
Movimiento
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
Límite:
Humanos
País/Región como asunto:
America del Norte
/
Europa
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Sci Rep
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
S41598-021-02760-8
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