Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization.
PLoS Comput Biol
; 17(12): e1009697, 2021 12.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1571974
Preprint
Este artículo de revista científica es probablemente basado en un preprint previamente disponible, por medio del reconocimiento de similitud realizado por una máquina. La confirmación humana aún está pendiente.
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Este artículo de revista científica es probablemente basado en un preprint previamente disponible, por medio del reconocimiento de similitud realizado por una máquina. La confirmación humana aún está pendiente.
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ABSTRACT
For the control of COVID-19, vaccination programmes provide a long-term solution. The amount of available vaccines is often limited, and thus it is crucial to determine the allocation strategy. While mathematical modelling approaches have been used to find an optimal distribution of vaccines, there is an excessively large number of possible allocation schemes to be simulated. Here, we propose an algorithm to find a near-optimal allocation scheme given an intervention objective such as minimization of new infections, hospitalizations, or deaths, where multiple vaccines are available. The proposed principle for allocating vaccines is to target subgroups with the largest reduction in the outcome of interest. We use an approximation method to reconstruct the age-specific transmission intensity (the next generation matrix), and express the expected impact of vaccinating each subgroup in terms of the observed incidence of infection and force of infection. The proposed approach is firstly evaluated with a simulated epidemic and then applied to the epidemiological data on COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Our results reveal how the optimal allocation depends on the objective of infection control. In the case of COVID-19, if we wish to minimize deaths, the optimal allocation strategy is not efficient for minimizing other outcomes, such as infections. In simulated epidemics, an allocation strategy optimized for an outcome outperforms other strategies such as the allocation from young to old, from old to young, and at random. Our simulations clarify that the current policy in the Netherlands (i.e., allocation from old to young) was concordant with the allocation scheme that minimizes deaths. The proposed method provides an optimal allocation scheme, given routine surveillance data that reflect ongoing transmissions. This approach to allocation is useful for providing plausible simulation scenarios for complex models, which give a more robust basis to determine intervention strategies.
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Algoritmos
/
Vacunación
/
Vacunas contra la COVID-19
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio experimental
/
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
/
Ensayo controlado aleatorizado
Tópicos:
Vacunas
Límite:
Humanos
País/Región como asunto:
Europa
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
PLoS Comput Biol
Asunto de la revista:
Biologia
/
Informática Médica
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
Journal.pcbi.1009697
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