Impact of the Timing of Stay-at-Home Orders and Mobility Reductions on First-Wave COVID-19 Deaths in US Counties.
Am J Epidemiol
; 191(5): 900-907, 2022 03 24.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1830972
ABSTRACT
As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission continues to evolve, understanding the contribution of location-specific variations in nonpharmaceutical interventions and behaviors to disease transmission during the initial epidemic wave will be key for future control strategies. We offer a rigorous statistical analysis of the relative effectiveness of the timing of both official stay-at-home orders and population mobility reductions during the initial stage of the US coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. We used a Bayesian hierarchical regression to fit county-level mortality data from the first case on January 21, 2020, through April 20, 2020, and quantify associations between the timing of stay-at-home orders and population mobility with epidemic control. We found that among 882 counties with an early local epidemic, a 10-day delay in the enactment of stay-at-home orders would have been associated with 14,700 additional deaths by April 20 (95% credible interval 9,100, 21,500), whereas shifting orders 10 days earlier would have been associated with nearly 15,700 fewer lives lost (95% credible interval 11,350, 18,950). Analogous estimates are available for reductions in mobility-which typically occurred before stay-at-home orders-and are also stratified by county urbanicity, showing significant heterogeneity. Results underscore the importance of timely policy and behavioral action for early-stage epidemic control.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio experimental
/
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
Límite:
Humanos
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Am J Epidemiol
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
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