Estimating the number of US children susceptible to measles resulting from COVID-19-related vaccination coverage declines.
Vaccine
; 40(32): 4574-4579, 2022 07 30.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1886123
ABSTRACT
Measles elimination hinges on vaccination coverage remaining above 95% to retain sufficient community protection. Recent declines in routine measles vaccinations due to the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with prior models indicating the country was close to the 92% herd immunity benchmark are a cause for concern. We evaluated population-level measles susceptibility in the US, including sensitivity analyses accounting for pandemic-related impacts on immunization. We estimated the number of children aged 0-18 currently susceptible to measles and modeled susceptibility proportions in decreased vaccination scenarios. Participants were respondents to the NIS-Teen survey between 2008 and 2017 that also had provider-verified vaccination documentation. The exposure of interest was vaccination with a measles-containing vaccine (MCV), and the age at which they were vaccinated for all doses given. Using age at vaccination, we estimated age-based probabilities of vaccination and modeled population levels of MCV immunization and immunity vs. susceptibility. Currently, 9,145,026 children (13.1%) are estimated to be susceptible to measles. With pandemic level vaccination rates, 15,165,221 children (21.7%) will be susceptible to measles if no attempt at catch-up is made, or 9,454,436 children (13.5%) if catch-up vaccinations mitigate the decline by 2-3%. Models based on increased vaccine hesitancy also show increased susceptibility at national levels, with a 10% increase in hesitancy nationally resulting in 14,925,481 children (21.37%) susceptible to measles, irrespective of pandemic vaccination levels. Current levels of measles immunity remain below herd immunity thresholds. If pandemic-era reductions in childhood immunization are not rectified, population-level immunity to measles is likely to decline further.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
COVID-19
/
Sarampión
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio experimental
/
Estudio observacional
Tópicos:
Vacunas
Límite:
Adolescente
/
Niño
/
Humanos
/
Lactante
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Vaccine
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
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