Travel-related Importation and Exportation Risks of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in 367 Prefectures (Cities) - China, 2022.
China CDC Wkly
; 4(40): 885-889, 2022 Oct 07.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2067699
ABSTRACT
Introduction:
Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a primary concern for sustaining the "Dynamic COVID-zero" strategy in China. Risk estimation is essential for cities to conduct before relaxing border control measures.Methods:
Informed by the daily number of passengers traveling between 367 prefectures (cities) in China, this study used a stochastic metapopulation model parameterized with COVID-19 epidemic characteristics to estimate the importation and exportation risks.Results:
Under the transmission scenario (R0 =5.49), this study estimated the cumulative case incidence of Changchun City, Jilin Province as 3,233 (95% confidence interval 1,480, 4,986) before a lockdown on March 14, 2022, which is close to the 3,168 cases reported in real life by March 16, 2022. In a total of 367 prefectures (cities), 127 (35%) had high exportation risks according to the simulation and could transmit the disease to 50% of all other regions within a period from 17 to 94 days. The average time until a new infection arrives in a location in 1 of the 367 prefectures (cities) ranged from 26 to 101 days.Conclusions:
Estimating COVID-19 importation and exportation risks is necessary for preparedness, prevention, and control measures of COVID-19 - especially when new variants emerge.
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
Tópicos:
Variantes
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
China CDC Wkly
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
Ccdcw2022.184
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