Analysis of a COVID-19 Epidemic Model with Seasonality.

ABSTRACT

The statistics of COVID-19 cases exhibits seasonal fluctuations in many countries. In this paper, we propose a COVID-19 epidemic model with seasonality and define the basic reproduction number [Formula see text] for the disease transmission. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when [Formula see text], while the disease is uniformly persistent and there exists at least one positive periodic solution when [Formula see text]. Numerically, we observe that there is a globally asymptotically stable positive periodic solution in the case of [Formula see text]. Further, we conduct a case study of the COVID-19 transmission in the USA by using statistical data.