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Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.
Borchering, Rebecca K; Mullany, Luke C; Howerton, Emily; Chinazzi, Matteo; Smith, Claire P; Qin, Michelle; Reich, Nicholas G; Contamin, Lucie; Levander, John; Kerr, Jessica; Espino, J; Hochheiser, Harry; Lovett, Kaitlin; Kinsey, Matt; Tallaksen, Kate; Wilson, Shelby; Shin, Lauren; Lemaitre, Joseph C; Hulse, Juan Dent; Kaminsky, Joshua; Lee, Elizabeth C; Hill, Alison L; Davis, Jessica T; Mu, Kunpeng; Xiong, Xinyue; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Vespignani, Alessandro; Srivastava, Ajitesh; Porebski, Przemyslaw; Venkatramanan, Srini; Adiga, Aniruddha; Lewis, Bryan; Klahn, Brian; Outten, Joseph; Hurt, Benjamin; Chen, Jiangzhuo; Mortveit, Henning; Wilson, Amanda; Marathe, Madhav; Hoops, Stefan; Bhattacharya, Parantapa; Machi, Dustin; Chen, Shi; Paul, Rajib; Janies, Daniel; Thill, Jean-Claude; Galanti, Marta; Yamana, Teresa; Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey.
  • Borchering RK; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
  • Mullany LC; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Howerton E; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
  • Chinazzi M; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Smith CP; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Qin M; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Reich NG; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
  • Contamin L; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Levander J; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Kerr J; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Espino J; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Hochheiser H; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Lovett K; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Kinsey M; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Tallaksen K; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Wilson S; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Shin L; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
  • Lemaitre JC; École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
  • Hulse JD; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Kaminsky J; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Lee EC; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Hill AL; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Davis JT; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Mu K; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Xiong X; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Pastore Y Piontti A; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Vespignani A; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Srivastava A; University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
  • Porebski P; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Venkatramanan S; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Adiga A; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Lewis B; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Klahn B; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Outten J; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Hurt B; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Chen J; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Mortveit H; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Wilson A; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Marathe M; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Hoops S; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Bhattacharya P; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Machi D; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Chen S; University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
  • Paul R; University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
  • Janies D; University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
  • Thill JC; University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
  • Galanti M; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Yamana T; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Pei S; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Shaman J; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 17: 100398, 2023 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2122676
ABSTRACT

Background:

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains.

Methods:

Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses.

Findings:

Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed.

Interpretation:

Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

Funding:

Various (see acknowledgments).
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Texto completo: Disponible Colección: Bases de datos internacionales Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Estudio experimental / Estudio observacional / Revisiones Tópicos: Vacunas / Variantes Idioma: Inglés Revista: Lancet Reg Health Am Año: 2023 Tipo del documento: Artículo País de afiliación: J.lana.2022.100398

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Texto completo: Disponible Colección: Bases de datos internacionales Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Estudio experimental / Estudio observacional / Revisiones Tópicos: Vacunas / Variantes Idioma: Inglés Revista: Lancet Reg Health Am Año: 2023 Tipo del documento: Artículo País de afiliación: J.lana.2022.100398