Using time-dependent reproduction number to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China.
BMC Infect Dis
; 22(1): 926, 2022 Dec 10.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2162308
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
To forecast the development trend of current outbreak in Dalian, mainly to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China, the results can be used to provide a scientific reference for timely adjustment of prevention and control strategies.METHODS:
During the outbreak, Bayesian framework was used to calculated the time-dependent reproduction number ([Formula see text]), and then above acquired [Formula see text] and exponential trend equation were used to establish the prediction model, through the model, predict the [Formula see text] value of following data and know when [Formula see text] smaller than 1.RESULTS:
From July 22 to August 5, 2020, and from March 14 to April 2, 2022, 92 and 632 confirmed cases and asymptomatic infected cases of COVID-19 were reported (324 males and 400 females) in Dalian. The R square for exponential trend equation were 0.982 and 0.980, respectively which fit the [Formula see text] with illness onset between July 19 to July 28, 2020 and between March 5 to March 17, 2022. According to the result of prediction, under the current strength of prevention and control, the [Formula see text] of COVID-19 will drop below 1 till August 2, 2020 and March 26, 2022, respectively in Dalian, one day earlier or later than the actual date. That is, the turning point of the COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China will occur on August 2, 2020 and March 26, 2022.CONCLUSIONS:
Using time-dependent reproduction number values to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China was effective and reliable on the whole, and the results can be used to establish a sensitive early warning mechanism to guide the timely adjustment of COVID-19 prevention and control strategies.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
Límite:
Femenino
/
Humanos
/
Masculino
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
BMC Infect Dis
Asunto de la revista:
Enfermedades Transmisibles
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
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