Comparing Short-Term Univariate and Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting Models in Infectious Disease Outbreak.
Bull Math Biol
; 85(1): 9, 2022 12 24.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2238820
ABSTRACT
Predicting infectious disease outbreak impacts on population, healthcare resources and economics and has received a special academic focus during coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Focus on human disease outbreak prediction techniques in current literature, Marques et al. (Predictive models for decision support in the COVID-19 crisis. Springer, Switzerland, 2021) state that there are four main methods to address forecasting problem:
compartmental models, classic statistical models, space-state models and machine learning models. We adopt their framework to compare our research with previous works. Besides being divided by methods, forecasting problems can also be divided by the number of variables that are considered to make predictions. Considering this number of variables, forecasting problems can be classified as univariate, causal and multivariate models. Multivariate approaches have been applied in less than 10% of research found. This research is the first attempt to evaluate, over real time-series data of 3 different countries with univariate and multivariate methods to provide a short-term prediction. In literature we found no research with that scope and aim. A comparison of univariate and multivariate methods has been conducted and we concluded that besides the strong potential of multivariate methods, in our research univariate models presented best results in almost all regions' predictions.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio experimental
/
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
Límite:
Humanos
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Bull Math Biol
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
S11538-022-01112-5
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