Estimating the share of SARS-CoV-2-immunologically naïve individuals in Germany up to June 2022.
Epidemiol Infect
; 151: e38, 2023 02 15.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2243021
ABSTRACT
After the winter of 2021/2022, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had reached a phase where a considerable number of people in Germany have been either infected with a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, vaccinated or both, the full extent of which was difficult to estimate, however, because infection counts suffer from under-reporting, and the overlap between the vaccinated and recovered subpopulations is unknown. Yet, reliable estimates regarding population-wide susceptibility were of considerable interest Since both previous infection and vaccination reduce the risk of severe disease, a low share of immunologically naïve individuals lowers the probability of further severe outbreaks, given that emerging variants do not escape the acquired susceptibility reduction. Here, we estimate the share of immunologically naïve individuals by age group for each of the sixteen German federal states by integrating an infectious-disease model based on weekly incidences of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the national surveillance system and vaccine uptake, as well as assumptions regarding under-ascertainment. We estimate a median share of 5.6% of individuals in the German population have neither been in contact with vaccine nor any variant up to 31 May 2022 (quartile range [2.5%-8.5%]). For the adult population at higher risk of severe disease, this figure is reduced to 3.8% [1.6%-5.9%] for ages 18-59 and 2.1% [1.0%-3.4%] for ages 60 and above. However, estimates vary between German states mostly due to heterogeneous vaccine uptake. Excluding Omicron infections from the analysis, 16.3% [14.1%-17.9%] of the population in Germany, across all ages, are estimated to be immunologically naïve, highlighting the large impact the first two Omicron waves had until the beginning of summer in 2022. The method developed here might be useful for similar estimations in other countries or future outbreaks of other infectious diseases.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
Tópicos:
Vacunas
/
Variantes
Límite:
Adulto
/
Humanos
/
Lactante
/
Middle aged
País/Región como asunto:
Europa
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Epidemiol Infect
Asunto de la revista:
Enfermedades Transmisibles
/
Epidemiología
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
S0950268823000195
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