Prediction of atmospheric pollutants in urban environment based on coupled deep learning model and sensitivity analysis.

ABSTRACT

Accurate and efficient predictions of pollutants in the atmosphere provide a reliable basis for the scientific management of atmospheric pollution. This study develops a model that combines an attention mechanism, convolutional neural network (CNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) unit to predict the O3 and PM2.5 levels in the atmosphere, as well as an air quality index (AQI). The prediction results given by the proposed model are compared with those from CNN-LSTM and LSTM models as well as random forest and support vector regression models. The proposed model achieves a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed values of more than 0.90, outperforming the other four models. The model errors are also consistently lower when using the proposed approach. Sobol-based sensitivity analysis is applied to identify the variables that make the greatest contribution to the model prediction results. Taking the COVID-19 outbreak as the time boundary, we find some homology in the interactions among the pollutants and meteorological factors in the atmosphere during different periods. Solar irradiance is the most important factor for O3, CO is the most important factor for PM2.5, and particulate matter has the most significant effect on AQI. The key influencing factors are the same over the whole phase and before the COVID-19 outbreak, indicating that the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on AQI gradually stabilized. Removing variables that contribute the least to the prediction results without affecting the model prediction performance improves the modeling efficiency and reduces the computational costs.