Mathematical modelling on COVID-19 transmission impacts with preventive measures: a case study of Tanzania.
J Biol Dyn
; 14(1): 748-766, 2020 12.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-842271
ABSTRACT
The outbreak of COVID-19 was first experienced in Wuhan City, China, during December 2019 before it rapidly spread over globally. This paper has proposed a mathematical model for studying its transmission dynamics in the presence of face mask wearing and hospitalization services of human population in Tanzania. Disease-free and endemic equilibria were determined and subsequently their local and global stabilities were carried out. The trace-determinant approach was used in the local stability of disease-free equilibrium point while Lyapunov function technique was used to determine the global stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number, R0 , was determined in which its numerical results revealed that, in the presence of face masks wearing and medication services or hospitalization as preventive measure for its transmission, R0=0.698 while in their absence R0=3.8 . This supports its analytical solution that the disease-free equilibrium point E0 is asymptotically stable whenever R0<1 , while endemic equilibrium point E∗ is globally asymptotically stable for R0>1 . Therefore, this paper proves the necessity of face masks wearing and hospitalization services to COVID-19 patients to contain the disease spread to the population.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Neumonía Viral
/
Infecciones por Coronavirus
/
Pandemias
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudio:
Reporte de caso
/
Estudio experimental
/
Estudio observacional
Límite:
Humanos
País/Región como asunto:
Africa
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
J Biol Dyn
Asunto de la revista:
Biologia
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
17513758.2020.1823494
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