The Association between Early Country-level Testing Capacity and Later COVID-19 Mortality Outcomes (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has overrun hospital systems while exacerbating economic hardship and food insecurity on a global scale. In an effort to understand how early action to find and control the virus is associated with cumulative outcomes, we explored how country-level testing capacity affects later COVID-19 mortality. Methods: We used the Our World in Data database to explore testing and mortality records in 27 countries from December 31, 2019 to September 30, 2020; we applied ordinary-least squares regression with clustering on country to determine the association between early COVID-19 testing capacity (cumulative tests per case) and later COVID-19 mortality (time to specified mortality thresholds), adjusting for country-level confounders, including median age, GDP, hospital bed capacity, population density, and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Results: Higher early testing implementation, as indicated by more cumulative tests per case when mortality was still low, was associated with longer accrual time for higher per capita deaths. For instance, a higher cumulative number of tests administered per case at the time of 6 deaths per million persons was positively predictive of a longer time to reach 15 deaths per million, after adjustment for all confounders (beta=0.659; P=0.001). Conclusions: Countries that developed stronger COVID-19 testing capacity at early timepoints, as measured by tests administered per case identified, experienced a slower increase of deaths per capita. Thus, this study operationalizes the value of testing and provides empirical evidence that stronger testing capacity at early timepoints is associated with reduced mortality and better pandemic control.