Modeling brings additional insights into the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Following the paper by Seow et al. published in Nature Microbiology, we reanalyzed the publicly available data using dynamical models of humoral response. The main conclusion is that, from available data, we can demonstrate that the decline of neutralizing antibodies (as measured with ID50) is biphasic, which is compatible with two types of antibody secreting cells (short lived and long lived). We found that lower bound of half life of the long-lived antibody secreting cells is 450 days. Moreover, our model predicts that the neutralizing antibody response could be more durable than suggested (up to 129 days for individuals with no requirement of supplemental oxygen and up to 175 days for others). A result which adds insight on the longevity of immune response.