IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON ROUTINE HIV CARE AND ANTIRETROVIRAL TREATMENT OUTCOMES IN KENYA: A NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE ANALYSIS (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic adversely disrupted global health service delivery. We aimed to assess impact of the pandemic on same-day HIV diagnosis/ART initiation, six-months non-retention and initial virologic non-suppression (VnS) among individuals starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Kenya. Methods: Individual-level longitudinal service delivery data were analysed. Random sampling of individuals aged >15 years starting ART between April 2018 - March 2021 was done. Date of ART initiation was stratified into pre-COVID-19 (April 2018 - March 2019 and April 2019 - March 2020) and COVID-19 (April 2020 - March 2021) periods. Mixed effects generalised linear, survival and logistic regression models were used to determine the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on same-day HIV diagnosis/ART initiation, six-months non-retention and VnS, respectively. Results: Of 7,046 individuals sampled, 35.5%, 36.0% and 28.4% started ART during April 2018 - March 2019, April 2019 - March 2020 and April 2020 - March 2021, respectively. Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, the COVID-19 period had higher same-day HIV diagnosis/ART initiation (adjusted risk ratio [95% CI] 1.09 [1.04-1.13], p<0.001) and lower six-months non-retention (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI] 0.66 [0.58-0.74], p<0.001). Of those sampled, 3,296 (46.8%) had a viral load test done at a median 6.2 (IQR, 5.3-7.3) months after ART initiation. Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, there was no significant difference in VnS during the COVID-19 period (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI] 0.79 [95% CI 0.52-1.20], p=0.264). Conclusions: In the short term, the COVID-19 pandemic did not have an adverse impact on HIV care and treatment outcomes in Kenya. Timely, strategic and sustained COVID-19 response may have played a critical role in mitigating adverse effects of the pandemic and point towards maturity, versatility and resilience of the HIV program in Kenya. Continued monitoring to assess long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV care and treatment program in Kenya is warranted.