Early warning system using primary healthcare data in the post-COVID-19-pandemic era: Brazil nationwide case-study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundSyndromic surveillance utilising primary health care (PHC) data is a valuable tool for early outbreak detection, as demonstrated in the potential to identify COVID-19 outbreaks. However, the potential of such an early warning system in the post-COVID-19 era remains largely unexplored. MethodsWe analysed PHC encounter counts due to respiratory complaints registered in the Brazilian database of the Universal Health System between January and July 2023. We applied EARS (variation C1-C2-C3) and EVI to estimate the weekly thresholds. An alarm was determined when the number of encounters exceeded the week-specific threshold. We used data on hospitalisation due to respiratory disease to classify weeks in which the number of cases surpassed predetermined thresholds as anomalies. We compared EARS and EVIs efficacy in anticipating anomalies. FindingsA total of 119 anomalies were identified across 116 immediate regions during the study period. The EARS-C2 presented the highest early alarm rate, with 81/119 (68%) early alarms, and C1 the lowest, with 71 (60%) early alarms. The lowest true positivity was the EARS-C1 118/1354 (8.7%) and the highest EARS-C3 99/856 (11.6%). ConclusionRoutinely collected PHC data can be successfully used to detect respiratory disease outbreaks in Brazil. Syndromic surveillance enhances timeliness in surveillance strategies, albeit with lower specificity. A combined approach with other strategies is essential to strengthen accuracy, offering a proactive and effective public health response against future outbreaks.