Exploring Machine Learning Strategies in COVID-19 Prognostic Modelling: A Systematic Analysis of Diagnosis, Classification and Outcome Prediction (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted over 222 countries resulting in incalculable losses, has necessitated innovative solutions via machine learning (ML) to tackle the problem of overburdened healthcare systems. This study consolidates research employing ML models for COVID-19 prognosis, evaluates prevalent models and performance, and provides an overview of suitable models and features while offering recommendations for experimental protocols, reproducibility and integration of ML algorithms in clinical settings. Methods: We conducted a review following the PRISMA framework, examining ML utilisation for COVID-19 prediction. Five databases were searched for relevant studies up to 24 January 2023, resulting in 1,824 unique articles. Rigorous selection criteria led to 204 included studies. Top-performing features and models were extracted, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) evaluation metric used for performance assessment. Results: This systematic review investigated 204 studies on ML models for COVID-19 prognosis across automated diagnosis (18.1%), severity classification (31.9%), and outcome prediction (50%). We identified thirty-four unique features in five categories and twenty-one distinct ML models in six categories. The most prevalent features were chest CT, chest radiographs, and advanced age, while the most frequently employed models were CNN, XGB, and RF. Top-performing models included neural networks (ANN, MLP, DNN), distance-based methods (kNN), ensemble methods (XGB), and regression models (PLS-DA), all exhibiting high AUC values. Conclusion: Machine learning models have shown considerable promise in improving COVID-19 diagnostic accuracy, risk stratification, and outcome prediction. Advancements in ML techniques and their integration with complementary technologies will be essential for expediting decision-making and informing clinical decisions, with long-lasting implications for healthcare systems globally.