Impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic on the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in children in Yamanashi, Japan (preprint)

ABSTRACT

It is hypothesized that the biopsychosocial stress associated with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2), in combination with the immunologic effects of SARS-CoV-2 and pancreatic β-cell dysfunction, may have contributed to the onset of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in children. We documented the incidence rates of T1D in Yamanashi Prefecture, Japan, from 1986 to 2018 and expanded our analysis to include cases from 2019 to 2022 to assess the influence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the incidence of T1D. The annual increase in standardized incidences of T1D among 0- to 14-year-olds was 2.089% per year from 1986 to 2019 (p = .0772) and 2.183% per year from 1986 to 2022 (p = .0331). For the 5-9 year age group, the annual increase in crude incidence from 1986 to 2019 was 6.607% per year (p < .01), and from 1986 to 2022, it was 6.270% per year (p < .001). In Yamanashi Prefecture, Japan, the incidence of pediatric T1D increased during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022. However, this trend was an extension of the increase prior to 2019, suggesting that no direct or indirect effect of COVID-19 on this trend was identified.