Forecasting gold prices in India using an ARIMA model

ABSTRACT

Over the years, the gold prices have been increasing rapidly. Covid-19 and its impact leads to rise in the prices of Gold in the year 2020. So many variables are mindful for increasing the gold cost in India and it leads to investment decisions of individuals and enterprises. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is useful method to gauge time series data. In the paper we mainly focus on daily costs of Gold from the year 2018 to 2020 to determine and forecast the daily gold prices in 2021. Also estimate the error (%) between the observed and estimated values through ARIMA model. This study will provide the estimates of suitable ARIMA model (0,1,2) along with Autocorrelation function (ACF) & Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) from the selected data, The auxiliary source information shows the positive patterns for getting effectiveness, For quantitative examination and speculation selections of financial backers. © 2023 Author(s).