Post-COVID-19 energy transition strategies: even reaching 100% renewable in Ecuador by 2055 is not enough to face climate change issue

ABSTRACT

The pandemic scenario caused by Covid-19 generated negative impacts. Covid-19 has made it clear that our daily lives depend to a high degree on access to energy. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to promote new activities such as local food production, but also local energy capture. This article is an attempt to expose and quantify the benefits of a renewable energy transition in Ecuador post Covid-19 and post-oil. The generation, consumption, and reserves of oil in Ecuador were characterized, and the concept of energy transition was applied to evaluate the possibilities of integration of renewables, the progressive exit of thermal power plants, and future energy strategies. The year 2015 was taken as a basis and it was determined that energy use was 154.0 TWh / year, which corresponds to an end-user of approximately 147 TWh / year. The objective was to reduce this end-use demand to 80.0 TWh/year by 2055 through the integration of renewables and energy efficiency, for which 5 transition phases were planned until a 100% renewable system was obtained. It is concluded that the energy transition in Ecuador is technically possible and economically viable, without giving up the energy well-being that we currently enjoy. However, results show that even 100% renewable is not enough to face climate change.