The temporal evolution in disease phenotype of COVID-19 hospitalisation, intensive care and case fatality rates in cancer patients across the United Kingdom (UKCCP)

ABSTRACT

Background: People living with cancer are reported to be at increased risk of hospitalization and death following infection with acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This is proposed to be dependent on a combination of intrinsic patient and cancer factors such as cancer subtype, and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants with differing pathogenicity. However, COVID-19 phenotype evolution across the pandemic from 2020 has not yet been systematically evaluated in cancer patients. Method(s) This study is a population-scale real-world evaluation of Coronavirus outcomes in the United Kingdom for cancer patients from 1st November 2020-31st August 2022. The cancer cohort comprises individuals from Public Health England's national cancer dataset, excluding individuals less than 18 years old. Case-outcome rates, including hospitalization, intensive care and casefatality rates were used to assess the evolution in disease phenotype of COVID-19 in cancer patients. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to compare risk of Coronavirus outcomes in the cancer cohort relative to the non-cancer population during the Omicron wave in 2022. Result(s) The cancer cohort comprised of 198,819 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests from 127,322 individual infections. Coronavirus case-outcome rates were evaluated by reference to 18,188,573 positive tests from 15,801,004 individual infections in the non-cancer population. From 2020 to 2022, the SARS-CoV-2 disease phenotype became less severe in both patients with cancer and the non-cancer population, though cancer patients remain at higher risk. In 2022, the relative risk of Coronavirus hospital admission, inpatient hospitalization, intensive care admission and mortality in cancer patients was 3.02x, 2.10x, 2.53x and 2.54x compared to the non-cancer population following multivariable adjustment, respectively. Higher risk of hospital admission and inpatient hospitalization were associated with receipt of B/T cell antibody and/or targeted therapy which also corresponded with an increased risk of Coronavirus mortality. Conclusion(s) The disease phenotype of SARS-CoV-2 in cancer patients in 2022 has evolved significantly from the disease phenotype in 2020. Direct effects of the virus in terms of SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization, intensive care and case fatality rates have fallen significantly over time. However, relative to the general population, people living with cancer and hematological malignancies remain at elevated risk. In order to mitigate the indirect effects of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in terms of disruption to cancer care, there should be increased focus on preventative measures. Used in conjunction with vaccination and early treatment programs, this will maximize quality of life for those with cancer during the ongoing pandemic and ensure the best cancer outcomes.