Impact of Upsurge in Covid-19 Cases on Indian Stock Market: A Machine Learning Approach

ABSTRACT

In the present study, the influence of the surge in pandemic cases and fatalities due to pandemics on the stock performance of NIFTY 50 have been analyzed by employing a regression analysis algorithm using Python Software. The data have been collected for 27 months starting from 1st Jan 2020 to 31st March 2022 and for the application of machine learning tools the data connected to the stock market and COVID 19 have been integrated into the first phase and thereafter preprocessing has been carried out on the data to bring uniformity to data in the second phase. After preprocessing in the third phase data has been evaluated using five leading regression algorithms. The findings of the study reflected that COVID 19 figures and fatalities have severally impacted the stock market returns of the leading index i.e., NIFTY 50. Further, it was gathered from the study that REPTree regression would be a better fit to the model and Gaussian Process would be least fitted to the model as REPTree the lower values of MAE, RMSE, RAE, and R2 error in case of performance evaluation of upsurge in COVID 19 fatalities and surge in stock market returns. © 2022 IEEE.