Simulation Analysis of Infectious Disease Trend Based on Improved SEIR Model

ABSTRACT

Scholars have carried out a lot of research in the field of using data processing methods to analyze the evolution characteristics and development trends of infectious diseases. The research on data model method is more in-depth, that is, according to the specific characteristics of infectious diseases, suitable data models are designed and combined with different parameters to analyze infectious diseases, mainly including infectious disease data models based on statistical theory or dynamic theory. The former is mostly used in the case of insufficient initial data. Local analysis is carried out by means of a priori or assumptions to achieve global prediction. The latter mainly includes SIR model, complex network model, and cellular automata model. SIR model is the most in-depth research. Scholars have constructed or optimized Si model, SIS model, SEIR model, IR model, and other derivative models based on SIR model in combination with the characteristics of viruses. In this paper, the data source is Wuhan epidemic information released by Health Commission of Hubei Province. Combined with the specific characteristics of COVID-19, the traditional dynamic propagation model is optimized, and an improved SEIR model is constructed. The results of the improved SEIR model are in good agreement with the actual epidemic trend in Wuhan. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.