Dependence structure among rare earth and financial markets: A multiscale-vine copula approach

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the dynamic upper and lower tail dependence across rare earth metals, clean energy, gold, world equity, base metals, and crude oil markets at various time scales. Firstly, raw return series are decomposed into various time scales using the maximum overlapping discrete wavelet transform method, then the time-varying pairwise dependencies, accounting for the impact of the covariate (in our case, the rare earth stock index), are analysed using vine-copula. This so called multiscale-vine copula approach is applied to daily data from June 25, 2009 to October 7, 2022, covering the Covid-19 outbreak. The results show that, for raw returns, the rare earth market moderates the positive dependence between world equity and clean energy markets. At the short-term time scale, unlike other pairwise dependencies, rare earth eases the dependency between clean energies. During the Covid-19 pandemic period, the rare earth stock index significantly affects the correlation of the gold and oil markets and makes them more resilient to global health shocks. At the mid-term time scale, the impact of the rare earth index is more pronounced, for both the entire sample and during the Covid-19 outbreak, as the dynamic dependencies of most indices, such as clean energy-world equity, base metals-world equity, and crude oil-clean energy, significantly decline after accounting for the influence of rare earth metals. The main result at the long-term time scale is that the Covid-19 pandemic moderates the dependency of clean energy-gold even further when considering the impact of the rare earth stock index. In general, the rare earth stock index plays a significant role in easing the extent of dependency in the medium term during the entire sample and the pandemic. These findings provide some useful implications for heterogeneous investors and market participants operating at various time scales.