Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
; No. 28445, 2021.
Article
Dans Anglais
| NBER | ID: grc-748611
ABSTRACT
This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in the spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It presents an alternative scenario analysis for 2021 based on this methodology and argues that the unemployment rate is likely to decline to 5.4 percent by the end of 2021. The predictive power of the methodology comes from its combined use of real-time data with the flow approach.
Texte intégral:
Disponible
Collection:
Bases de données des oragnisations internationales
Base de données:
NBER
Type d'étude:
Étude pronostique
langue:
Anglais
Revue:
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
Année:
2021
Type de document:
Article
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