Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises.
Sci Rep
; 11(1): 15482, 2021 07 29.
Artigo
em Inglês
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1333991
Preprint
Este artigo de periódico científico é provavelmente baseado em um preprint previamente disponível, por meio do reconhecimento de similaridade realizado por uma máquina. A confirmação humana ainda está pendente.
Ver preprint
Este artigo de periódico científico é provavelmente baseado em um preprint previamente disponível, por meio do reconhecimento de similaridade realizado por uma máquina. A confirmação humana ainda está pendente.
Ver preprint
ABSTRACT
To ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test's sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.
Texto completo:
Disponível
Coleções:
Bases de dados internacionais
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Surtos de Doenças
/
Busca de Comunicante
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo diagnóstico
/
Estudo observacional
/
Estudo prognóstico
Limite:
Humanos
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Sci Rep
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
País de afiliação:
S41598-021-95032-4
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