Evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses
; 15(1): 19-26, 2021 01.
Artigo
em Inglês
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-696556
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Between mid-January and early February, provinces of mainland China outside the epicentre in Hubei province were on high alert for importations and transmission of COVID-19. Many properties of COVID-19 infection and transmission were still not yet established.METHODS:
We collated and analysed data on 449 of the earliest COVID-19 cases detected outside Hubei province to make inferences about transmission dynamics and severity of infection. We analysed 64 clusters to make inferences on serial interval and potential role of pre-symptomatic transmission.RESULTS:
We estimated an epidemic doubling time of 5.3 days (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.3, 6.7) and a median incubation period of 4.6 days (95% CI 4.0, 5.2). We estimated a serial interval distribution with mean 5.7 days (95% CI 4.7, 6.8) and standard deviation 3.5 days, and effective reproductive number was 1.98 (95% CI 1.68, 2.35). We estimated that 32/80 (40%) of transmission events were likely to have occurred prior to symptoms onset in primary cases. Secondary cases in clusters had less severe illness on average than cluster primary cases.CONCLUSIONS:
The majority of transmissions are occurring around illness onset in an infected person, and pre-symptomatic transmission does play a role. Detection of milder infections among the secondary cases may be more reflective of true disease severity.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
Disponível
Coleções:
Bases de dados internacionais
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo observacional
/
Estudo prognóstico
Limite:
Adolescente
/
Adulto
/
Idoso
/
Criança
/
Feminino
/
Humanos
/
Masculino
/
Meia-Idade
/
Jovem adulto
País/Região como assunto:
Ásia
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Influenza Other Respir Viruses
Assunto da revista:
Virologia
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
País de afiliação:
Irv.12787
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