A Generalized Multinomial Probabilistic Model for SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prediction and Public Health Intervention Assessment in an Indoor Environment (preprint)

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron has become the predominant variant globally. Current infection models are limited by the need for large datasets or calibration to specific contexts, making them difficult to cater for different settings. To ensure public health decision-makers can easily consider different public health interventions (PHIs) over a wide range of scenarios, we propose a generalized multinomial probabilistic model of airborne infection to systematically capture group characteristics, epidemiology, viral loads, social activities, environmental conditions, and PHIs, with assumptions made on social distancing and contact duration, and estimate infectivity over short time-span group gatherings. This study is related to our 2021 work published in Nature Scientific Reports that modelled airborne SARS-CoV-2 infection (Han, Lam, Li, et al., 2021). It is differentiated from former works on probabilistic infection modelling in terms of the following (1) predicting new cases arising from more than one infectious in a gathering, (2) incorporating additional key infection factors, and (3) evaluating the effectiveness of multiple PHIs on SARS-CoV-2 infection simultaneously. Although our results reveal that limiting group size has an impact on infection, improving ventilation has a much greater positive health impact. Our model is versatile and can flexibly accommodate other scenarios by allowing new factors to be added, to support public health decision-making.