Characterizing features of outbreak duration for novel SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Characterizing the dynamics of epidemic trajectories is critical to understanding the potential impacts of emerging outbreaks and to designing appropriate mitigation strategies. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, however, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern has complicated our ability to assess in real-time the potential effects of imminent outbreaks, such as those presently caused by the Omicron variant. Here, we report that SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across regions exhibit strain-specific times from onset to peak, specifically for Delta and Omicron variants. Our findings may facilitate real-time identification of peak medical demand and may help fine-tune ongoing and future outbreak mitigation deployment efforts.