Estimating the time-varying reproduction number for COVID-19 in South Africa during the first four waves using multiple measures of incidence for public and private sectors across four waves (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Objectives We aimed to quantify transmission trends in South Africa during the first four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic using estimates of the time-varying reproduction number (R) and to compare the robustness of R estimates based on three different data sources and using data from public and private sector service providers. Methods We estimated R from March 2020 through April 2022, nationally and by province, based on time series of rt-PCR-confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and hospital-associated deaths, using a method which models daily incidence as a weighted sum of past incidence. We also estimated R separately using public and private sector data. Results Nationally, the maximum case-based R following the introduction of lockdown measures was 1.55 (CI 1.43-1.66), 1.56 (CI 1.47-1.64), 1.46 (CI 1.38-1.53) and 3.33 (CI 2.84-3.97) during the first (Wuhan-Hu), second (Beta), third (Delta), and fourth (Omicron) waves respectively. Estimates based on the three data sources (cases, hospitalisations, deaths) were generally similar during the first three waves but cases-based estimates were higher during the fourth wave. Public and private sector R estimates were generally similar except during the initial lockdowns and in case-based estimates during the fourth wave. Discussion Agreement between R estimates using different data sources during the first three waves suggests data from any of these sources could be used in early stages of a future pandemic. High R estimates for Omicron relative to earlier waves is interesting given a high level of exposure pre-Omicron. The agreement between public and private sector R estimates highlights the fact that clients of the public and private sectors did not experience two separate epidemics, except perhaps to a limited extent during the strictest lockdowns during the first wave.